Americans are expected to cook up plenty of order confirmation emails this Thanksgiving.
Over the five days from Thanksgiving through Cyber Monday, shoppers will shell out $37.2 billion online — up 5.4% from last year, Adobe Analytics projects.
Why it matters: This isn't a factor of rising prices — the increase is driven by net-new demand this year, Adobe tells Axios.
E-commerce prices have actually been falling for 14 straight months and were down 6% in October from the same time last year.
With online deflation factored in, spending growth would be closer to 12% over last year, according to Adobe.
The intrigue: The stronger shopping period over the next few days comes at time when traditional holiday buying patterns are shifting earlier in the year.
Notably — Americans already spent $63.2 billion online in the first 20 days of the holiday shopping season (Nov. 1 to Nov. 20), which is up 5% over last year, and above Adobe's forecast.
Of those days, 17 have seen consumers spend over $3 billion online, a new record. (For context, there were 13 days of over $3 billion spend in the comparable period last year).
The big picture: U.S. consumers, on average, haven't pulled back on spending this year despite the "vibes" being off.
"Despite rising costs elsewhere (student loan repayments, interest rates), consumers are finding great bargains online and willing to spend," Adobe's report reads.
Or, as Axios' Neil Irwin put it recently: "If Americans have the capacity to spend money, they will."
Yes, but: Just because Americans can't stop themselves from shopping doesn't mean that some shouldn't.
Buy now, pay later options, which can lead to excessive debt, accounted for nearly 8% of the online spend so far in November, at $4.9 billion.
That's up "a significant" 14.5% year-over-year, Adobe says.
What to watch: Total online holiday spend between November and December is projected to reach $221.8 billion, a 4.8% growth over last year, according to Adobe.
When factoring in physical retail sales, U.S. consumers are expected to spend a total of between $957.3 billion and $966.6 billion, a growth of between 3% and 4%, according to the National Retail Federation.
On average, consumers are expected to individually spend about $1,652 during the holidays this year, according to a recent Deloitte survey.
Methodology: Adobe analyzes direct consumer transactions online to U.S. retail sites.