Americans are already shopping their hearts out
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Illustration: Rebecca Zisser/Axios
Americans are expected to cook up plenty of order confirmation emails this Thanksgiving.
- Over the five days from Thanksgiving through Cyber Monday, shoppers will shell out $37.2 billion online — up 5.4% from last year, Adobe Analytics projects.
Why it matters: This isn't a factor of rising prices — the increase is driven by net-new demand this year, Adobe tells Axios.
- E-commerce prices have actually been falling for 14 straight months and were down 6% in October from the same time last year.
- With online deflation factored in, spending growth would be closer to 12% over last year, according to Adobe.
The intrigue: The stronger shopping period over the next few days comes at time when traditional holiday buying patterns are shifting earlier in the year.
- Notably — Americans already spent $63.2 billion online in the first 20 days of the holiday shopping season (Nov. 1 to Nov. 20), which is up 5% over last year, and above Adobe's forecast.
- Of those days, 17 have seen consumers spend over $3 billion online, a new record. (For context, there were 13 days of over $3 billion spend in the comparable period last year).
The big picture: U.S. consumers, on average, haven't pulled back on spending this year despite the "vibes" being off.
- "Despite rising costs elsewhere (student loan repayments, interest rates), consumers are finding great bargains online and willing to spend," Adobe's report reads.
- Or, as Axios' Neil Irwin put it recently: "If Americans have the capacity to spend money, they will."
Yes, but: Just because Americans can't stop themselves from shopping doesn't mean that some shouldn't.
- Buy now, pay later options, which can lead to excessive debt, accounted for nearly 8% of the online spend so far in November, at $4.9 billion.
- That's up "a significant" 14.5% year-over-year, Adobe says.
What to watch: Total online holiday spend between November and December is projected to reach $221.8 billion, a 4.8% growth over last year, according to Adobe.
- When factoring in physical retail sales, U.S. consumers are expected to spend a total of between $957.3 billion and $966.6 billion, a growth of between 3% and 4%, according to the National Retail Federation.
- On average, consumers are expected to individually spend about $1,652 during the holidays this year, according to a recent Deloitte survey.
Methodology: Adobe analyzes direct consumer transactions online to U.S. retail sites.
Go deeper: Holiday spending could see boost from lower heating costs
