Aug 3, 2023 - Politics & Policy

52% of Republicans won't vote for Trump if he goes to prison: poll

Trump holds a rally last year in Ohio. Photo: Jeff Swensen/Getty Images

Nearly half of Republicans say they would not vote for former President Trump if he were convicted of a felony, and 52% wouldn't vote for him if he were in prison on Election Day, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll published Thursday.

Why it matters: Trump remains the runaway favorite for the 2024 Republican nomination, but the poll suggests his legal woes could still harm his general election chances.

Driving the news: Trump will be arraigned Thursday in connection with the Jan. 6 investigation on charges for which, if convicted, he could face multiple years in prison.

  • Trump previously pleaded not guilty in June to 37 felony counts in a probe related to retaining classified information and obstruction of justice.
  • He also pleaded not guilty in New York to charges relating to the falsification of business records to conceal an alleged affair with porn star Stormy Daniels.
  • Trump faces a fourth possible indictment in Georgia over alleged criminal efforts to overturn the 2020 election results. He denies wrongdoing in all four cases.

On the one hand: Trump is tied with President Biden at 43% in a hypothetical general election matchup, according to a New York Times/Siena College poll, despite 51% of voters saying they think Trump has committed "serious federal crimes."

  • The Reuters poll also found that 75% of Republicans believe Trump is facing "politically motivated" prosecutions, while 66% do not find the charges that Trump committed criminal acts to overturn the results of the 2020 election "believable."
  • Those findings suggest many in the GOP base believe Trump's claims that he is the victim of a "witch hunt."

On the other hand: The Reuters poll suggests many Republicans would nonetheless be reluctant to vote for a convicted felon next November.

  • 45% of Republicans said they would not vote for Trump if he were convicted of a felony by a jury, while 35% said they would.
  • 52% said they wouldn't vote for him if he were in prison at the time of the election, while 28% said they would.

Worth noting: The poll showed Trump leading Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis 47% to 13%.

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