52% of Republicans won't vote for Trump if he goes to prison: poll
- Dave Lawler, author of Axios World
Trump holds a rally last year in Ohio. Photo: Jeff Swensen/Getty Images
Nearly half of Republicans say they would not vote for former President Trump if he were convicted of a felony, and 52% wouldn't vote for him if he were in prison on Election Day, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll published Thursday.
Why it matters: Trump remains the runaway favorite for the 2024 Republican nomination, but the poll suggests his legal woes could still harm his general election chances.
Driving the news: Trump will be arraigned Thursday in connection with the Jan. 6 investigation on charges for which, if convicted, he could face multiple years in prison.
- Trump previously pleaded not guilty in June to 37 felony counts in a probe related to retaining classified information and obstruction of justice.
- He also pleaded not guilty in New York to charges relating to the falsification of business records to conceal an alleged affair with porn star Stormy Daniels.
- Trump faces a fourth possible indictment in Georgia over alleged criminal efforts to overturn the 2020 election results. He denies wrongdoing in all four cases.
On the one hand: Trump is tied with President Biden at 43% in a hypothetical general election matchup, according to a New York Times/Siena College poll, despite 51% of voters saying they think Trump has committed "serious federal crimes."
- The Reuters poll also found that 75% of Republicans believe Trump is facing "politically motivated" prosecutions, while 66% do not find the charges that Trump committed criminal acts to overturn the results of the 2020 election "believable."
- Those findings suggest many in the GOP base believe Trump's claims that he is the victim of a "witch hunt."
On the other hand: The Reuters poll suggests many Republicans would nonetheless be reluctant to vote for a convicted felon next November.
- 45% of Republicans said they would not vote for Trump if he were convicted of a felony by a jury, while 35% said they would.
- 52% said they wouldn't vote for him if he were in prison at the time of the election, while 28% said they would.
Worth noting: The poll showed Trump leading Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis 47% to 13%.