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Axios AM Deep Dive: Great Hispanic shift

National

Latino

Axios Latino

Big divides over issues like inflation and crime — along with religious and cultural dissonance with progressives — are eroding Latinos' decades-long loyalty to the Democratic Party, injecting a major wildcard into the 2022 midterms and beyond. 

Why it matters: Democrats once viewed projected U.S. Latino population growth as their party's ticket to long-term political dominance. But recent elections and midterm polls show the perils in that thinking.

By the numbers: Democrats' generic advantage over Republicans among U.S. Latino adults fell from 16 percentage points to 12 between March and June, according to Ipsos polling for Axios. Other polls have shown more dire scenarios for Democrats, with preferences essentially tied.

A New York Times-Siena College poll last month showed a statistically insignificant lead for Democrats in a generic congressional ballot, 41% to 38%. One Wall Street Journal poll earlier this year actually gave generic Republican candidates a 9-point edge.

In the 2018 midterms, Democrats held a 47-point edge with Hispanics. Biden's 2020 margin was 21 points.

In 2020, President Biden won around two-thirds of Latino voters overall, but densely Latino precincts in Massachusetts, New Jersey, Wisconsin, Nevada, Texas and Florida all shifted toward former President Trump by between 6 and 20 percentage points since 2016.

The big picture: Latino Democrats and political consultants have warned for years that the Democratic Party was taking Latino voters for granted.

They've said the party doesn't invest enough in developing Latino candidates, runs condescending voter targeting and focuses on issues that don't resonate with many Hispanics, like banning plastic grocery bags or radically revamping policing.

White party leaders often divert needed funding and support to white candidates over Latinos in primaries, creating uphill battles for poorly funded Hispanic hopefuls.

Meanwhile, there's evidence that religious Latinos have been shifting from the Catholic Church to evangelical Protestantism, hardening conservative social stances that align more with the GOP.

Republicans through the Trump era found some success cultivating a new generation of Hispanic candidates, despite Trump's border rhetoric and policies, allowing for small but important wins in traditionally Democratic strongholds. 

Zoom in: Some Latino oil workers in West Texas and southeastern New Mexico are expressing anxiety over Democrats' aggressive climate change policies, saying they would endanger lucrative oil jobs for green jobs that don't yet exist. 

Some Hispanic ranchers argue that Democrats focus too much on saving endangered species and preserving the environment instead of grazing and water rights that have existed for centuries.

Many Hispanics in border states work in border protection or other law enforcement jobs.

In some cities, Democrats are avoiding the most effective response to rising crime: hiring more police officers and getting out of federal consent decrees that impose too many restrictions on their tactics, Louie Sanchez, a Democratic Albuquerque city councilor, told Axios.

What they're saying: "College-educated elite whites have taken over and are setting the agenda and narrative of the Democratic Party," Jacob Candelaria, a Princeton-educated, openly gay Latino New Mexico state senator, told Axios.

That criticism mirrors the rhetoric of Republicans who, though their party has college-educated white people as well, have tried to portray Democrats as out of touch with non-elites.

Candelaria quit the Democratic Party and became an independent last year after Democrats remapped districts in their favor and over what he said was the party moving too far left. "My people don't care about electric vehicles when they can barely afford food."

Cleo Petricek, the daughter of Mexican immigrants and a lifelong Democrat who lives in Austin, Texas, said she's considering voting for Republican candidates over Democrats' failure to address crime and homelessness.

"I created a website for Obama when he ran for president. I volunteered for Beto (O'Rourke) when he ran for Senate. But I can't take this anymore," Petricek said. 

Daniel Hernandez Jr., a Democratic Arizona state lawmaker who recently ran unsuccessfully for Congress, said Democrats need to focus on jobs, health care, and education rather than just talking about immigration.

"One of the big things that's happening at the national level is people aren't actually listening to the Latino voters about what they want to talk about." 

Ipsos pollster and senior vice president Chris Jackson said despite warning signs for Democrats — and windows of opportunity for Republicans —  the data doesn't show Latino voters flipping their allegiance. 

But it's a matter of degree. If crime and inflation are the top two issues come November, he said, dissatisfied Latino voters could swing tight elections.

The other side: Nora Vargas, a Democratic member of the San Diego County Board of Supervisors, said Democrats are still the party that best helps Latinos around economic opportunity and civil rights.

But Vargas said worries about a disconnect between the national Democratic Party and local activists who know how to reach voters. "You got to make sure we get consultants who know our communities ... people who speak our language, not just go to Google Translate."

Don't forget: Latino voters over the last two decades have helped a number of Democrats in close elections.

Hispanic voters were crucial to President Barack Obama's 2012 election victory, U.S. Sen. Raphael Warnock's win in 2020 and Joe Biden's Arizona win that same year. 

What's next: Armando Rodriguez, a school board member in El Paso's Canutillo Independent School District, said Democrats need to clearly call out veiled GOP pushes to end diversity education and efforts to mislead Latino voters.

"I think it's the wording and the ability for us to relate back to just focus on the history," he said. Otherwise, Democrats may lose more Latino voters — "including some members of my family."

1. The shifting Latino voters

The traditionally strong Democratic Party loyalty among Mexican Americans and Puerto Ricans may be breaking.

Illustration of a torn photo of Hispanic man wearing a Biden/Harris face mask overlaying a photo of a "Latinos voten por Trump" banner.

Photo Illustration: Lindsey Bailey/Axios. Photo: The Washington Post, NurPhoto/Getty

Midterm elections 2022

Big divides over issues like inflation and crime — along with religious and cultural dissonance with progressives — are eroding Latinos&#x27; decades-long loyalty to the Democratic Party, injecting a major wildcard into the 2022 midterms and beyond. Why it matters: Democrats once viewed projected <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="U.S. Latino population" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/world/latino" data-vars-content-id="b300b29d-8e06-4f08-9b4b-6e1000574cb9" data-vars-headline="The shifting Latino voters" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/world/latino" target="_self">U.S. Latino population</a> growth as their party&#x27;s ticket to long-term political dominance. But recent elections and midterm polls show the perils in that thinking.

2024 will be an election year like no other, as President Biden seeks re-election amid economic uncertainty, two wars and questions about his age. His likely foe, former President Trump, faces felony charges and vows revenge on his political enemies. Meanwhile, Americans generally are dissatisfied with those choices and are divided over immigration, race, education and more.

Politics & Policy

Hispanic Protestant share of population

Reproduced from PRRI, 2020 Census of American Religion; Map: Kavya Beheraj/Axios

The Latino exodus from Catholicism and toward more politically conservative evangelical faiths is one important reason for the rightward shift that could shape the future of the electorate.

The big picture: The percentage of Latinos who identify as Protestant — meaning evangelical and other Christian faiths — is expected to grow from about 25% now to 50% by 2030, researchers say. 

Evangelicals are more likely to identify as Republicans than Catholics are, according to the 2020 Census of American Religion from the Public Religion Research Institute.   

Meanwhile, the percentage of Latinos who identify as Catholic dropped from 57% a decade ago to 47% in 2018 and 2019, according to the Pew Research Center.

Why it matters: The growing evangelical shift has already helped propel candidates like Mayra Flores, the South Texas Republican who flipped her district in a special election in June and is running again in November.

Flores’ church uses the motto "Make America Godly Again," illustrating the political bent that many evangelical churches have.  

What they’re saying: Rev. Samuel Rodriguez Jr., who heads the largest Hispanic evangelical organization, says Latino Protestants will increasingly ditch the Democratic Party over its social and economic stances. 

Some academics agree. Sociologist Gerardo Martí writes that Latino Protestants are developing “a partisan support that mimics white conservative voters.” 

“I think we're going to see more people like [Flores], meaning folks that come from a very strong Latino evangelical or Pentecostal background that are moving towards positions of leadership,” Jonathan E. Calvillo, assistant professor at Candler School of Theology at Emory University, tells Axios. 

“It's not just their growth around numbers, with increased affiliation, but also in their visibility,” Calvillo said.

By the numbers: One in five Hispanic Protestants identifies as Republican, compared with one in 10 Hispanic Catholics, according to the Public Religion Research Institute.

Meanwhile, 33% of Latino Protestants and 41% of Catholics identify as Democrats.

Forty-two percent of Catholics — and Protestants — say they’re politically independent. 

Between the lines: Protestants are more likely to align with Republican views on economic policy and a "pull yourself up by your bootstraps" ideology, said Martí, the sociologist. 

Rodriguez says Democrats aren't addressing the economic anxieties Latinos feel.

Yes, but: Latino Protestants aren’t a monolith, Calvillo says. 

Younger Hispanic evangelicals in particular are “experiencing a moment of reckoning,” questioning homophobia and transphobia in their churches, while recognizing “the need to be advocates in issues like immigration,” Calvillo added.

He calls it an emerging countermovement of Latino evangelicals rejecting conservative narratives and white Christian nationalism, choosing instead to create different congregation spaces or to leave the church.

In fact, many Hispanics have moved away from religion in recent years, data shows. Over one third of Hispanics ages 18 to 29 say they don’t practice any religion, according to PRRI.

“I think that the evangelical shift is going to be tempered by non-affiliation,” Calvillo said. 

2. Mapped: Power of Latino Protestants

Evangelicals are more likely to identify as Republicans than Catholics are.

Deep Dive - Great Hispanic Shift

The <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="Latino exodus from Catholicism" data-vars-click-url="https://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory/us-latinos-longer-majority-catholic-66856012" data-vars-content-id="9baea892-3495-48b7-82f9-eb8103e386f0" data-vars-headline="Mapped: Power of Latino Protestants" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory/us-latinos-longer-majority-catholic-66856012" target="_blank">Latino exodus from Catholicism</a> and toward more politically conservative evangelical faiths is one important reason for the rightward shift that could shape the future of the electorate.The big picture: The percentage of <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="Latinos who identify as Protestant" data-vars-click-url="https://www.prri.org/research/2020-census-of-american-religion/" data-vars-content-id="9baea892-3495-48b7-82f9-eb8103e386f0" data-vars-headline="Mapped: Power of Latino Protestants" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.prri.org/research/2020-census-of-american-religion/" target="_blank">Latinos who identify as Protestant</a> — meaning evangelical and other Christian faiths — is expected to grow from about 25% now to <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="50% by 2030," data-vars-click-url="https://rowman.com/ISBN/9781538153147/Latino-Protestants-in-America-Growing-and-Diverse" data-vars-content-id="9baea892-3495-48b7-82f9-eb8103e386f0" data-vars-headline="Mapped: Power of Latino Protestants" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://rowman.com/ISBN/9781538153147/Latino-Protestants-in-America-Growing-and-Diverse" target="_blank">50% by 2030,</a> researchers say.

There's no single reason or issue behind conservative Latinos' growing political clout. Their interests and ideology vary depending on where they live and what country they or their family came from. 

The big picture: Whether it's the desire to protect oil industry and law enforcement jobs in South Texas, or being receptive to anti-socialism messaging in Florida and economic opportunity concerns in Arizona, conservative Latinos are becoming more open to Republican Party appeals in critical states.

In South Texas, Republicans have made recent gains — notably the 34th congressional district, where Mayra Flores flipped the Democratic stronghold in a June special election, becoming the first Mexican-born woman in Congress, Nicole Cobler and Asher Price of Axios Austin report.

What they're saying: Latino voters in South Texas are unique compared with those in the rest of the state, according to Jason Villalba, a former GOP state lawmaker and CEO of the Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation.

Hispanic voters in the region fill a number of oil and gas jobs and work in law enforcement, including in the Border Patrol — meaning voters there bristle at Democratic messaging around renewable energy, defunding the police and loosening border security policies, Villalba said.

"Democrat politics are largely driven by the national narrative," he added. The GOP, by contrast, "will often tailor messaging for a region and seize upon these unique differences among communities."

But, but, but: While Villalba expects there will continue to be a "slight trend" toward Hispanic South Texans voting for GOP candidates, "I don't think it's as much as the red wave that the Texas Republican Party would like people to believe."

Low turnout among Latinos can lead to incorrect conclusions that voters in the region are turning Republican, warned Sylvia Gonzalez-Gorman, a political science professor at the University of Texas-Rio Grande Valley. 

In Florida, Republicans have tied Democrats to socialism, which provokes fear in many Latin Americans who fled undemocratic regimes, Joshua Scacco, a political communication expert at the University of South Florida, told Selene San Felice of Axios Tampa Bay.

Trump recognized Juan Guaidó as the legitimate leader of Venezuela in 2019, a huge moment for Venezuelans in America.

“Those particular types of actions and messages are important signals to these communities, whether it's the Cuban, Colombian or Venezuelans, any of those diaspora communities,” Scacco told Axios.

What they're saying: Gov. Ron DeSantis’ anti-communist message is appealing for people like Ally Matamoros, a 22-year-old Tampa resident whose parents left Cuba and Nicaragua.

“All I know is that my grandparents especially are saying (that) what we see in now (in America) is what they saw when communism took over, and that’s what worries me,” Matamoros told Bay News 9.

In Arizona, Republicans are appealing to Latinos on issues like economic opportunity, gas prices and immigration, Jeremy Duda of Axios Phoenix reports.

Robert Garcia, a Phoenix activist and former officer in his legislative district's GOP organization, said Hispanic voters are patriotic and view the United States as a country that provided them with opportunities they couldn't have gotten elsewhere, while the Democratic Party has moved away from those values.

The Biden administration has been a big driver for Republican efforts to attract Latino voters due to high gas prices and inflation, and Biden's perceived fault for those problems, because high gas prices have hurt laborers who must drive to work, said Sergio Arellano, a southern Arizona GOP operative who served on the ​​Latinos for Trump advisory board.

What they're saying: Arellano said it may seem counterintuitive that Latinos would support Republicans, or that Hispanic support would increase under Trump, because of his rhetoric on immigration.

But there are plenty of Latinos who share Trump's hostility toward illegal immigration, Arellano said, though there are many who don't voice those opinions publicly.

Even for many who oppose Trump's immigration positions, it's a secondary issue, he said. 

Yes, but: The dynamics are different in the Midwest, where Latino voters are paying more attention to the economy while conservative family values remain a constant, Axios Detroit's Joe Guillen reports.

The dynamics appear to favor the GOP, but community leaders tell Axios that elections in suburban and rural areas with a recent influx of Latinos are likely to tilt left.

The big picture: Like other parts of the country, Latinos in the Midwest are hard to pin down politically. The Republican Party for decades has attracted about a third of the community with platform planks focusing on religion and conservative values.

"The community is not a monolith. It's not going to fit into generalized patterns," Eli Garza, a former pastor at Detroit's First Spanish Baptist Church, tells Axios.

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3. What's driving the shift

Latinos are becoming more open to Republican Party appeals in critical states.

Photo illustration of Rep. Mayra Flores, between two images, one of a woman holding an American and Venezuelan flag, and another of a border patrol officer. 

Photo illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios. Photos: Anna Moneymaker, Alicia Vera/Bloomberg, Eric Thayer for The Washington Post via Getty Images

There&#x27;s no single reason or issue behind <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="conservative Latinos&#x27;" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/world/latino" data-vars-content-id="a941b60a-4308-4627-a5ce-879e09c76e82" data-vars-headline="What&#x27;s driving the shift" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/world/latino" target="_self">conservative Latinos&#x27;</a> growing political clout. Their interests and ideology vary depending on where they live and what country they or their family came from. The big picture: Whether it&#x27;s the desire to protect oil industry and law enforcement jobs in South Texas, or being receptive to anti-socialism messaging in Florida and economic opportunity concerns in Arizona, conservative Latinos are becoming more open to Republican Party appeals in critical states.

Data: Axios/Ipsos; Chart: Nicki Camberg/Axios

4. Axios-Ipsos poll: Latino fault lines over immigration, police

Most Latinos still support Democratic policies, but a new poll shows where the greatest friction lies.

A substantial minority of Latino Americans disagree with Democratic policies and messaging on <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="immigration" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/politics-policy/immigration" data-vars-content-id="03fc4b4b-71fc-41e0-80de-0bcd167b1b29" data-vars-headline="Axios-Ipsos poll: Latino fault lines over immigration, police" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/politics-policy/immigration" target="_self">immigration</a> and policing, <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="Axios-Ipsos polling shows." data-vars-click-url="https://www.ipsos.com/en-us/news-polls/latinos-lean-democratic-on-climate-and-safety-midterms" data-vars-content-id="03fc4b4b-71fc-41e0-80de-0bcd167b1b29" data-vars-headline="Axios-Ipsos poll: Latino fault lines over immigration, police" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.ipsos.com/en-us/news-polls/latinos-lean-democratic-on-climate-and-safety-midterms" target="_blank">Axios-Ipsos polling shows.</a>The big picture: Majorities still support Democratic policies on both issues as well as climate change. But the national survey shows the greatest friction points — with significant differences by age and backgrounds.