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Air travel's COVID-created future

National

Whats Next

Axios What's Next

With the coronavirus pandemic worsening and no more help in sight from the U.S. government, airlines and airports are scrambling to survive the worst crisis in aviation history. 

Why it matters: Promising vaccines offer hope for a recovery, but not until large swaths of the global population are immunized, and that could take years. To get people flying again, airlines are pushing testing and rethinking the travel experience.

The big picture: A record 26 million passengers cleared U.S. airport security during the 10-day Thanksgiving travel period in 2019. 

This Thanksgiving, with cases soaring and health officials urging people to stay home, AAA predicts holiday air travel could fall by nearly half.

But even that would be a welcome Thanksgiving bump over recent passenger traffic, which is down 65% from a year ago. 

What they're doing: Airlines have partnered with premier medical institutions like the Cleveland Clinic and Mayo Clinic to create new health safety protocols.

They've adopted mask requirements (the Federal Aviation Administration has none) and added enhanced cleaning between flights.

Despite the hit to revenues, some are limiting passenger capacity by blocking middle seats. (Delta Air Lines has said it will continue blocking middle seats through the first quarter.)

Now they're trying to prod government leaders in the U.S. and Europe to lift onerous quarantine rules that have all but stifled international travel.

They're urging pre-flight testing and digital health passes to verify who's safe to fly. The cost would likely get rolled into your airfare, as airport security fees do now. 

The industry hopes results from early testing efforts at select airports will convince government officials to safely reopen borders, says David Evans, co-CEO of Collinson, which runs London's Heathrow Airport test site. 

Hawaii, which lifted its quarantine restrictions in October for those who test negative before arriving, is seeing a promising uptick in tourist travel, says Airlines for America.

Where it stands: Government aid that helped airlines limp along for a while — and keep employees on the payroll — expired Oct. 1, and further relief isn't likely anytime soon.  

An estimated 90,000 airline jobs will be gone by year-end, and 1 in 4 planes remain parked. 

With $36 billion in losses already this year, U.S. carriers are burning cash at a rate of $180 million per day.

To offset those losses, they're flying more cargo and adding leisure flights to the Sunbelt this winter. 

They've also taken on $68 billion in new debt — a portion of it in U.S. Treasury loans — and digging out of that hole will hamper future growth.

There's broad public interest in getting planes back in the air: they're needed to distribute the vaccine.  

What to watch: The pandemic is accelerating the digitization of the travel experience, which had already begun with touchless kiosks in airports, for example.

Companies are rushing to deploy new smartphone technology that would personalize and streamline the journey — and even notify you of potential virus exposures to curtail the spread. 

"This is the moment in time. We can retool everything," said Ian Matheson, CEO of 3BP Solutions, an aviation consulting firm in Vancouver, B.C.

The bottom line: These are risky times for airlines. But those that can keep passengers safe and healthy will likely take off again.

1. Airlines plot course for coronavirus survival

The fight to survive the worst crisis in airline history

Illustrated collage of a futuristic family airplane and a syringe. 

Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios. Photo: Ann Ronan Pictures, Bettmann/Getty Images

Business

Deep Dive - Air travel

With the coronavirus pandemic worsening and no more help in sight from the U.S. government, airlines and airports are scrambling to survive the worst crisis in aviation history. Why it matters: Promising vaccines offer hope for a recovery, but not until large swaths of the global population are immunized, and that could <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="take years" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/how-long-countries-will-wait-for-covid-vaccine-c3106aaf-6ca8-4c7f-af89-ac9b347b25a6.html" data-vars-content-id="eb3c09d3-aeeb-4224-adf8-b4e184ee8aad" data-vars-headline="Airlines plot course for coronavirus survival" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/how-long-countries-will-wait-for-covid-vaccine-c3106aaf-6ca8-4c7f-af89-ac9b347b25a6.html" target="_self">take years</a>. To get people flying again, airlines are pushing testing and rethinking the travel experience.

Top stories & latest news on the Federal Reserve, real-time data, plus the biggest shifts happening in the U.S. and global economy.

Economy

After a record economic expansion, the coronavirus pandemic sent the U.S. economy into a recession as unemployment soared to staggering heights. The country now faces urgent questions about how much stimulus is needed for reeling consumers and businesses, and what a recovery might look like.

Economy & Business

Business travel remains depressed during the pandemic, but some airlines are seeing more leisure travelers in their first-class cabins.

Why it matters: Many people are avoiding air travel during the public health crisis, fearful they'll catch COVID-19 from a nearby passenger. But for those who can afford it, premium class seats offer more comfort and perhaps a little extra breathing room.

Driving the news: Lufthansa's CEO told investors earlier this month his planes were seeing fewer corporate customers and more wealthy French, German and Swiss leisure travelers in first class.

"There is a segment of people who are traveling for leisure who are willing to pay the premium for first class because it gives them isolation, or separation, from the rest of us," said Madhu Unnikrishnan, editor of Skift's Airline Weekly. 

For the record: Airlines say everyone benefits from the extra precautions they've implemented to protect travelers, no matter where they're sitting on the plane. 

That includes mask requirements, enhanced cleaning and disinfection, and high-tech ventilation systems that refresh the cabin air every few minutes.

A recent Harvard study commissioned by the industry concluded the risk of transmission on an airplane is “very low” and that being on an airplane is “as safe if not significantly safer” than going to the grocery store and eating at a restaurant.

The CDC has not confirmed any cases of airplane transmission, but that does not mean it hasn't happened, a spokeswoman told the Washington Post. 

Yes, but: Social distancing is still harder in economy class.

Some airlines opted to block middle seats to give people more space, but that's not good for the bottom line. Southwest Airlines says it will stop the practice starting Dec. 1, and others are set to follow. 

Only Delta Air Lines has said it will continue blocking middle seats through the first quarter. 

There's no indication airlines are reconfiguring their cabins to add more first-class seats. It's too expensive to rip up a plane, and they're still hopeful corporate travel will resume once COVID-19 passes.

The bottom line: Even for ordinary travelers, flying on an airplane doesn't appear to be much of a health risk in itself. It's what you do when you get there that matters. 


2. Some air travelers pay premium for social distancing

Leisure travels are paying more for business class seats.

Illustration of a spray bottle spraying a collection of virus cells

Business travel remains depressed during the pandemic, but some airlines are seeing more leisure travelers in their first-class cabins.Why it matters: Many people are avoiding air travel during the public health crisis, fearful they&#x27;ll catch COVID-19 from a nearby passenger. But for those who can afford it, premium class seats offer more comfort and perhaps a little extra breathing room.

Based on Axios reporting and interviews with SimpliFlying, Elenium Automation, Thales Group, 3BP Solutions. Graphic: Naema Ahmed, Sarah Grillo/Axios

3. The new airport experience

Illustration of a finger pointing with circles radiating out

<div><figure><div id="av-2020-11-21-touchless-air-travel-explainer-X6FO3" style="max-width:100%" data-vars-category="embed" data-vars-sub-category="axios-visual" data-vars-asset-id="av-2020-11-21-touchless-air-travel-explainer-X6FO3" data-vars-iframe-src="https://graphics.axios.com/2020-11-21-touchless-air-travel-explainer/index.html" class="gtmView"><img class="axios-visual-newsletter-fallback-image" src="https://graphics.axios.com/2020-11-21-touchless-air-travel-explainer/fallbacks/2020-11-21-touchless-air-travel-explainer-fallback.png" width="1200" height="1720"/><img class="axios-visual-apple-fallback-image" src="https://graphics.axios.com/2020-11-21-touchless-air-travel-explainer/fallbacks/2020-11-21-touchless-air-travel-explainer-apple.png" width="748" height="1789"/></div><figcaption>Based on Axios reporting and interviews with SimpliFlying, Elenium Automation, Thales Group, 3BP Solutions. Graphic: Naema Ahmed, Sarah Grillo/Axios</figcaption></figure></div>

Air travel is becoming a touchless, self-directed journey, which poses a threat to traditional airport customer service jobs. 

Why it matters: Automation and artificial intelligence have long been viewed as a threat to jobs, but the unprecedented disruption COVID-19 is posing to the travel industry could have lasting workforce implications. 

Where it stands: Self-service kiosks have already replaced jobs traditionally performed by airport or airline staff, such as check-in, security, concessions and immigration. 

Yes, but: No one wants to use a touchscreen during a pandemic.

Many airports are quickly moving toward "touchless" technology using facial recognition, AI, automation, and biometric scanners.

American Airlines, for instance, is testing mobile ID technology at its bag drop area at Dallas/Fort Worth and Reagan National airports. 

Instead of passengers handing their ID to the airline agent, a digital token on their smartphone can verify their identity.

At Abu Dhabi International Airport, Etihad Airways is testing a bag-drop system that uses AI to recognize unique scuff marks and other characteristics on nearly identical suitcases and match them to the correct passenger with a digital tag.

At Hong Kong International Airport, self-driving, “intelligent sterilization” robots clean public areas and restrooms.

The big question: Could airline industry jobs lost during the pandemic be gone for good? 

No way, says Sara Nelson, president of the Association of Flight Attendants-CWA and a leading advocate for aviation workers. 

Even automated baggage systems need humans behind the scenes, she notes. 

Besides, the airline industry is highly regulated, and employees require extensive training and certification, she said. 

"Ground personnel, gate agents, flight attendants, mechanics, pilots — all of them have to be checked off with certification. These jobs can’t be performed with automation."

But it's the entire ecosystem around airports that faces workforce disruption, said Robert Puentes, president and CEO of the Eno Center for Transportation, a nonprofit think tank.

Concessions and ancillary businesses like parking lot shuttles are often minority-owned business enterprises hired by government airport authorities. Some employees are municipal workers. 

"Airports will look a lot different, but there's still a need for airport workers" when demand returns, he said. 

A new report from MIT's task force on "The Work of the Future" makes the case that worries about automation and AI leading to widespread job destruction are likely overblown.

As with other technological shifts, the researchers found some jobs are eliminated by automation and AI, while others are created.

Although they didn't examine the airline industry in particular, they noted that unmanned aircraft require many more people to operate than traditional aircraft.

Context: Before the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks, airline employment peaked at 546,000 people, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.  

By 2010, it had fallen to 377,000, the lowest level since early 1987. 

Jobs had been on the upswing, however, in recent years, and the industry was preparing to add about 100,000 jobs in 2020, Nelson said. 

Instead, an estimated 90,000 airline jobs will be gone by year-end, according to the Airlines for America.

What to watch: Technology can't be truly judged until air travel returns to normal levels, says Madhu Unnikrishnan, editor of Airline Weekly, a trade publication. 

"It all may seem like it’s working really well right now, this automation, but we’re talking about one-third of the usual traffic." 

  Go deeper: Your touchless journey of the future  

4. Touchless travel could threaten airport jobs

Changes wrought by Covid could become permanent.

Illustrated collage of a stewardess holding a serving tray juxtaposed against a robot holding a serving tray. 

Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios. Photos: Universal History Archive, Pictorial Parade/Getty Images

Air travel is becoming a touchless, self-directed journey, which poses a threat to traditional airport customer service jobs. Why it matters: Automation and artificial intelligence have long been viewed as a threat to jobs, but the unprecedented disruption COVID-19 is posing to the travel industry could have lasting workforce implications.

Some travelers are avoiding commercial flights during the pandemic and opting for private charter flights instead, reports the New York Times.

Why it matters: It's expensive, but private planes can offer more peace of mind to passengers concerned about virus-related safety on commercial planes, but can be another pandemic impact hurting traditional airlines.

What's happening: A growing number of Americans are booking private charter flights through brokers or directly with companies such as BLADE, XO and JSX.

They can book the whole plane, which can cost $10,000 or more, or just buy a seat, for a few hundred bucks. 

Jet cards, like those offered by fractional ownership companies NetJets and Flexjet, let customers purchase, say, 25 aircraft hours, for a fixed price.

You can even buy a private jet membership at Costco. 

The bottom line: For many, a private flight is seen as a safer alternative to sitting shoulder to shoulder with strangers on a cramped commercial flight during a pandemic. 

5. More fliers turn to private jets to avoid crowded airlines

Photo illustration of a small airplane and a woman waving

Photo illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios. Photos: Museum of Flight, Eddie Sanderson/Getty Images

Some travelers are avoiding commercial flights during the pandemic and opting for private charter flights instead, <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="reports the New York Times" data-vars-click-url="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/30/travel/private-jets-coronavirus.html" data-vars-content-id="9a59918f-4f96-46d7-a419-eeb09617824d" data-vars-headline="More fliers turn to private jets to avoid crowded airlines" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/30/travel/private-jets-coronavirus.html" target="_blank">reports the New York Times</a>.Why it matters: It&#x27;s expensive, but private planes can offer more peace of mind to passengers concerned about virus-related safety on commercial planes, but can be another pandemic impact hurting traditional airlines.

Macro

Axios Macro

Boeing is nearing the end of a crippling stretch after the grounding of it 737 MAX last year, while trudging through another one: the pandemic.

Why it matters: Boeing's most popular jet was given the nod to fly again this week, but the world has changed in the 20 months that regulators kept the 737 MAX jet from the skies.

COVID-19 is paralyzing traveler demand and decimating airlines' balance sheets, leaving little appetite for new planes — and forcing production and job cutbacks at Boeing.

Driving the news: The ungrounding means Boeing can begin delivering the 450 MAX jets sitting in storage.

Yes, but: As many as a quarter of these planes are "white tails" — planes whose original buyers backed out since the MAX was grounded or as a result of the pandemic, Bloomberg reported.

By the numbers: Airlines have 9,000 planes (mostly Boeing or rival Airbus jets) sitting idle around the world, according to Alton Aviation Consultancy's John Mowry. 

In normal times, roughly 1,000 are parked.

Between the lines: It's hard to make the business case for airlines to buy more planes, "when the airlines don't need the capacity that they already have,“ Mowry says.

6. Boeing 737 Max's next hurdle: coronavirus

Boeing is nearing the end of a crippling stretch after the grounding of it 737 MAX last year, while trudging through another one: the pandemic.Why it matters: Boeing&#x27;s most popular jet was given the nod to <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="fly again this week" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/boeing-737-max-faa-cleared-5e7740f2-cb94-4466-b87b-f8f723a92bee.html" data-vars-content-id="9b1f1d0f-1552-4275-bd5a-ed6c7ff73214" data-vars-headline="Boeing 737 Max&#x27;s next hurdle: coronavirus" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/boeing-737-max-faa-cleared-5e7740f2-cb94-4466-b87b-f8f723a92bee.html" target="_self">fly again this week</a>, but the world has changed in the 20 months that regulators kept the 737 MAX jet from the skies.