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World

Axios World

Two decades after the U.S. invaded Iraq, 61% of Americans do not believe the U.S. made the right decision according to a new Axios/Ipsos poll.

Why it matters: The chaos and destruction that followed the invasion have made a generation of Americans and their leaders more skeptical of the use of military force overseas, in particular in the Middle East. The invasion toppled a brutal dictator but sparked 20 years of instability in Iraq, and damaged America's standing in the world.

Flashback: On March 17, 2003, George W. Bush issued an ultimatum that the U.S. would take military action if Saddam Hussein did not leave Iraq within 48 hours. On March 19, bombs began to fall on Baghdad. On March 20, the ground invasion commenced.

The invasion was extremely controversial overseas, but highly popular in the U.S. A Pew poll in Feb. 2003 found that 66% of Americans approved of military action in Iraq and only 26% disapproved. 

However, the Bush administration had justified the invasion on the grounds that Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein possessed weapons of mass destruction, which were never found. 57% of Americans at the time also believed, falsely, that Saddam had played a role in the 9/11 attacks, per Pew.

Timeline: U.S. forces took Baghdad in early April. Bush's now-infamous "Mission Accomplished" speech came on May 1, 2003, just five weeks into the war. 

U.S. forces then spent eight years battling a determined insurgency. An estimated 200,000 Iraqis were killed along with nearly 5,000 U.S. troops. The war cost the U.S. an estimated $2 trillion.

By 2005, American public opinion had generally turned against the war, according to Pew, though most Republicans continued to support it. Around the world, and in particular, among European allies, attitudes toward the U.S. turned sharply negative in the years after the invasion.

Barack Obama made his opposition to the Iraq War a central tenet of his 2008 presidential campaign and promised to pull out within 16 months. Obama did withdraw the remaining U.S. forces in 2011 but was forced to send troops back three years later after ISIS conquered huge regions of Iraq and neighboring Syria.

Donald Trump criticized the war repeatedly during his 2016 campaign, falsely claiming he'd opposed it from the beginning and challenging rivals like Jeb Bush and later Hillary Clinton for supporting it.

The legacy of the war had significant effects on the foreign policies of both administrations. 

When Obama was considering a military response to the Syrian regime's use of chemical weapons in Syria, for example, "you felt the ghost of Iraq that whole week," Ben Rhodes, one of Obama's top foreign policy advisers, said this week on the "Pod Save the World" podcast. 

Both presidents were generally more reluctant to put American "boots on the ground" in conflict zones than their immediate predecessors, Bush and Bill Clinton.

That more cautious approach to the use of military force overseas appeared to be mirrored in U.S. public opinion. However, a 2022 survey from the Chicago Council on Global Affairs found that most Americans would support military intervention in certain scenarios, such as if Russia invaded a NATO ally.

State of play: Just 31% of Americans think the Iraq War made America safer, while 36% think the U.S. was right to invade, according to the Axios/Ipsos poll published this week. 

There is a clear partisan divide, however, with 58% of Republicans believing the U.S. was right to invade compared to 26% of Democrats. 

Younger Americans, in particular, do not think the U.S. was right to invade Iraq, though majorities in every age group hold that view.

Methodology: The Axios/Ipsos Poll was conducted March 10-13, 2023, by Ipsos on their online survey panels in English. The poll is based on a sample of 1,018 general population adults age 18 or older, weighted on age, gender, race/ethnicity, education, and location to be nationally representative.

The margin of sampling error is ±3.3 percentage points at the 95% confidence level, for results based on the entire sample of adults.

reluctant to put American "boots on the ground"

20 years on, most Americans say Iraq invasion was the wrong decision

The war has shaped a generation of U.S. foreign policy.

George W. Bush informs Americans in televised remarks on March 19, 2003 that the U.S.-led military intervention in Iraq had begun. Photo: Alex Wong/Getty Images

Iraq

International Criminal Court issues arrest warrant for Putin

The cases allege Russia has abducted Ukrainian children and teenagers.

Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow on March 16.

Russian invasion of Ukraine

Russia

Turkey announced on Friday plans to ratify Finland's decision to join NATO, a major step toward the alliance adding its 31st member.

Driving the news: “We decided to start the ratification process in our Parliament for Finland’s membership,” Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan told a news conference Friday, according to a translation from The New York Times.

The announcement came after Erdoğan met with Finnish President Sauli Niinisto in Ankara, Turkey.

Erdoğan said he hoped Turkey will complete the process by the country's mid-May elections, Bloomberg reports.

Context: Turkey’s Parliament must ratify Finland's membership into NATO, which requires unanimous approval from the nations within it, NYT reports.

Hungary is the only other NATO member that has not ratified Finland's bid. Prime Minister Viktor Orbán has delayed a vote on Finland and Sweden joining NATO despite his party's support.

The big picture: Finland and Sweden handed over their NATO applications last May, looking to join the defensive alliance after Russia's unprovoked invasion of Ukraine.

Though Finland's move has Erdoğan's approval, he has expressed concerns about Sweden's membership bid, saying the Nordic country should take a tougher stance against Kurdish separatists, per the NYT.

Yes, but: Finland's Niinisto said that the "Finnish NATO membership is not complete without Sweden," per Bloomberg.

“We have so much common interest having been neighbors and having the Baltic Sea area on our shore," he said.

Go deeper: Why NATO formed and why Finland and Sweden want to join the alliance

Why NATO formed and why Finland and Sweden want to join the alliance

Turkey's Erdoğan backs Finland's bid to join NATO

Hungary is the only other NATO member that has not ratified Finland's bid.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan (R) welcomes Finnish President Sauli Niinisto (L) with an official ceremony 

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and Finnish President Sauli Niinisto in Ankara. Photo: Sansar/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images

Turkey

Polish President Andrzej Duda said this week that Poland will transfer four of its MiG-29 fighter jets to Ukraine in the coming days and plans to send others, as well.

The latest: Slovak Prime Minister Eduard Heger said on Friday that his country would send 13 of its MiG-29s.

Slovakia's fleet of 11 MiG-29s was retired last summer and many of them are currently not in operational condition, according to Reuters.

Why it matters: The transfers would make Poland and Slovakia the first and second NATO members to answer Kyiv's call for aircraft to help it further prevent Russia from securing air superiority over Ukraine.

The Ukrainian Air Force already operates MiG-29 jets, so they will likely be able to use the aircraft right away. 

What they're saying: Duda said Poland will transfer additional planes after they have been serviced, AP reports.

Duda did not say whether other countries plan to join Poland in fulfilling Ukraine's request for aircraft. A Polish government spokesman said on Wednesday that other countries have also pledged MiGs to Ukraine, but he did not name them.

Heger said the military aid to Ukraine is to ensure it "can defend itself [and] the entire Europe against Russia."

Neither leader said when they expect Ukraine to receive the aircraft.

National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby told reporters during a call that Poland's decision did not change the Biden administration's position on supplying Ukraine with aircraft.

"It doesn't change our calculus with regard to the F-16," Kirby said, referring to the U.S. fighter jets sought by Ukraine. "It's not on the table right now."

The big picture: Ukrainian officials have been calling on European countries and the U.S. to supply Ukraine with fighter jets or establish a "no-fly" zone over the country since the start of Russia's invasion.

The U.S. in March 2022 rejected a plan from the Polish government to deploy Poland's entire fleet of MiG-29 jets to the U.S., which would have allowed the U.S. to transfer the Soviet-era aircraft to Ukraine's military.

That plan would've included backfilling Poland's MiG-29 fleet with American-made F-16 fighter jets.

Go deeper: Israel approves export licenses for anti-drone systems for Ukraine

Editor's note: This article has been updated with a quote from John Kirby and Slovakia's announced transfer.

Israel approves export licenses for anti-drone systems for Ukraine

Poland, Slovakia become first NATO members to offer Ukraine fighter jets

Kyiv has called for aircraft to help it further prevent Russia from securing air superiority over Ukraine.

Polish MIG-29 fighter jets at an air force base in Malbork, Poland in August 2021.

Polish MIG-29 fighter jets at an air force base in Malbork, Poland in August 2021. Photo: Cuneyt Karadag/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images

Ukraine

TikTok CEO Shou Zi Chew insisted Thursday that forcing the app's Chinese parent company, Bytedance, to sell it would not address the the national security concerns of the U.S. and other governments.

The big picture: Chew's comments to the Wall Street Journal coincided with the U.K. and New Zealand becoming the latest to announce new TikTok restrictions on government devices due to security concerns.

The Biden Administration has warned TikTok that it faces a ban in the United States if ByteDance doesn't sell its stake in the U.S. version of the app, per Axios' Sara Fischer and Ashley Gold.

What they're saying: Doubling down on statements the company has issued previously, Chew told the WSJ that such a move would not provide any more protection than the firm's current plan, which involves ensuring that U.S. user data is accessible only by Oracle Cloud and the firm's American data security team.

"I do welcome feedback on what other risk we are talking about that is not addressed by this," Chew told the outlet from TikTok's WeWork offices in Washington, D.C.

 "So far I haven't heard anything that cannot actually be solved by this."

The intrigue: Chew declined to say during his interview with the WSJ whether ByteDance's founders were open to selling, the outlet reports.

Chew said he and ByteDance had mulled an initial public offering of TikTok, as some lawmakers have suggested to allay security concerns. But there's "no concrete plan right now."

State of play: China's ruling Communist Party has said there's no evidence that TikTok threatens national security. But the U.S., the EU, Canada, and several other countries have in recent months moved to impose bans and other restrictions on the app in relation to official government devices.

Of note: FBI director Chris Wray told the Senate Intelligence Committee earlier this month that the Chinese Communist Party has the ability to control the software on millions of devices due to its relationship with ByteDance.

What we're watching: Chew is due to give testimony before Congress next week.

Go deeper... Focus groups: TikTok ban falls flat with Wisconsin swing voters

Editor's note: This article has been updated with further context.

Focus groups: TikTok ban falls flat with Wisconsin swing voters

TikTok CEO: App sale won't address U.S. concerns

TikTok CEO Shou Zi Chew's comments to the WSJ coincided with the U.K. and New Zealand announcing restrictions due to security concerns.

TikTok CEO, Shou Zi Chew in Washington, D.C., in February. Photo: Matt McClain/The Washington Post via Getty Images

TikTok

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Saturday's world stories

20 years on, most Americans say Iraq invasion was the wrong decision

International Criminal Court issues arrest warrant for Putin

Turkey's Erdoğan backs Finland's bid to join NATO

Poland, Slovakia become first NATO members to offer Ukraine fighter jets

TikTok CEO: App sale won't address U.S. concerns