National

Several lawmakers on Sunday railed against President Trump and demanded he sign the $900 billion coronavirus relief bill and $1.4 trillion government funding measure passed by Congress last week. 

Why it matters: Unemployment benefits for millions of Americans lapsed overnight, and the federal government may be forced to shut down this week if Trump does not sign the measure. 

Driving the news: In a surprise announcement last week, Trump said he wants Congress to increase stimulus payments from the agreed $600 that his Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin helped negotiate to $2,000.

But many lawmakers, including several Democrats who support $2,000 checks, want the president to first sign the measure already passed by Congress and then focus on passing additional legislation. 

Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) told ABC News that "what the president is doing right now is unbelievably cruel." 

"Many millions of people are losing their extended unemployment benefits. They're going to be evicted from their apartments,” he said. 

"My view is that, given the terrible economic crisis facing this country, yes, we do need to get $2,000 out to every working-class individual in this country, $500 for their kids — but you can't diddle around with the bill," he said. 

"Sign the bill Mr. President and then immediately — Monday or Tuesday — we can pass a $2,000 direct payment for the working families of this country."

Sen. Pat Toomey (R-Pa.) said Trump risked his legacy if he did not immediately sign the measure. 

"I understand he wants to be remembered for advocating for big checks, but the danger is he'll be remembered for chaos and misery and erratic behavior if he allows this to expire," Toomey told "Fox News Sunday."

"You don't get everything you want, even if you're the president of the United States," he said.

Rep. Adam Kinzinger (R-Ill.) told CNN's "State of the Union" that he doesn't understand why Trump is playing "this old switcheroo game" now. 

“I don’t get the point, I don’t understand what’s being done, why — unless it’s just to create chaos and show power and be upset because you lost the election. Otherwise I don’t understand it because this just has to get done. Too many people are relying on this,” he said. 

"Right now, we’re at a point where people are left out in the dark." 

Go deeper: Expanded unemployment benefits lapse with relief bill in limbo

"Too many people are relying on this": Lawmakers urge Trump to sign COVID relief bill

"What the president is doing right now is unbelievably cruel," Sen. Bernie Sanders said.

Politics

Economic stimulus

Health Care

Coronavirus

Donald Trump

2024 will be an election year like no other, as President Biden seeks re-election amid economic uncertainty, two wars and questions about his age. His likely foe, former President Trump, faces felony charges and vows revenge on his political enemies. Meanwhile, Americans generally are dissatisfied with those choices and are divided over immigration, race, education and more.

Politics & Policy

The U.S. health system faces critical questions about cost, access and equity. Technological advances and new discoveries about diseases like cancer and Alzheimer’s are transforming patient care and reshaping public health.

Health

Future

Axios Future

The coronavirus pandemic hit the global economy hard in 2020, but the economy may be close to consolidating years of technological advances — and ready to take off in a burst of productivity growth.

Why it matters: Productivity is the engine that makes the economy grow for everyone. If long-gestating technologies like AI and automation really are ready to fulfill their potential, we'll have the chance to escape the great stagnation that has choked our economy and poisoned our politics.

What's happening: Hidden in part by the human and economic suffering of the pandemic, 2020 saw a collection of remarkable technological breakthroughs, including a mRNA vaccine for COVID-19 and advances in AI language generation.

Context: In a blog post published last month, the economist Tyler Cowen added in a few others, including affordable solar power and remote work, and asked whether total factor productivity (TFP) — a rough approximation of the effect technological and strategic progress has on economic productivity — in 2021 "will be remarkably high, maybe the highest ever?"

Cowen's musings matter because he literally wrote the book on "the great stagnation" — his term for the curious and persistent slowdown in wage and productivity growth in the U.S. over the past few decades, even as the internet and everything that grew out of it seemed to transform life as we knew it.

Flashback: After a few postwar decades of scorching growth, labor productivity began to decelerate sharply in the 1970s, and aside from a period of 3% growth in the mid-1990s to early 2000s — which economists attributed to the widespread effects of the computer — it's stayed mired at about 1.2% a year ever since .

Some experts have argued that conventional economic metrics fail to fully measure the productivity benefits of newer technologies like social media and the internet, but even so, they don't compare to the advances of the past, like widespread electrification and antibiotics.

It looks increasingly possible that the last decade plus of sluggish productivity growth isn't a sign that the benefits of new technology have permanently plateaued, but that businesses were using the time to invest in and adjust to those new advances — and that we may now be ready to reap the benefits.

Economists like Erik Byrnjolfsson have argued that we're experiencing a "productivity J-curve."  

When powerful new technologies are introduced into the economy, productivity may flatten or even dip a bit as initial investments are made — the first part of the J. But once those technologies have been fully digested, productivity can swoop upwards — the second part of the J.

That's what we've seen in the past. Computers began to filter into the workplace in the 1970s and 80s, but it wasn't until the 1990s that the productivity gains of all those PCs were finally felt.

What they're saying: "Often times in the short term it can be costly to invest in new business processes and skills, and during that time you won't see productivity rising," Byrnjolfsson told me earlier this year. 

"But in the years after you'll see the upwards part of the J, and COVID-19 has catalyzed the energy and creativity around this process."

By the numbers: A survey by the World Economic Forum in October found more than 80% of global firms plan to accelerate the digitization of business process and grow remote work, while half plan to accelerate automation. 

About 43% expect those changes to reduce their workforces overall, which implies an expected increase in productivity.

The catch: If those gains don't filter down to workers — or worse, end up eliminating jobs without replacing them with better ones — even a faster, more productive economy won't ameliorate the inequality-driven political divisions that have dogged the U.S. in recent years.

The bottom line: As bad as 2020 has been, we may look back upon it as the year that finished the launchpad for a new Roaring '20s.

The coming tech-driven productivity leap

Productivity growth has been stagnant for years, but new technologies are finally set to change that.

Illustration of a $100 bill accelerating to warp speed

Productivity

Technology

Business

Artificial Intelligence

Social Media

From the Valley to D.C., Big Tech players like Facebook, Google and Amazon are under more scrutiny than ever as new technology develops and privacy and antitrust concerns grow in lockstep with companies’ ambitions.

The European Union began on Sunday a coordinated rollout of coronavirus vaccinations across its 27 member states in a drive to inoculate some 450 million people.

Why it matters: Several European countries have tightened restrictions as cases, deaths and hospitalizations surge. EU countries have recorded at least 16 million COVID-19 cases and 336,000 deaths since the pandemic began, per AP. 

The vaccinations come in a week that saw the first cases of a new COVID-19 variant, first reported in the United Kingdom, detected in France, Spain and Sweden, as well as Japan and Canada. 

The big picture: Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine shipments arrived to EU countries on Saturday. Most countries received just under 10,000 doses in their first shipments, according to AP. 

Germany, Hungary and Slovakia gave their first coronavirus vaccine shots on Saturday, one ahead of the coordinated launch, AP notes. 

Germany gave the first shots to a small number of people at a home for the elderly on Saturday, per Reuters. 

Hungary administered its first vaccine doses to frontline health workers in Budapest. 

Slovakia also gave some its first shots to healthcare workers, according to AP. 

What they're saying: "Today, we start turning the page on a difficult year. The COVID-19 vaccine has been delivered to all EU countries. Vaccination will begin tomorrow across the EU," European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said in a video she tweeted Saturday. 

"The #EUvaccinationdays are a touching moment of unity. Vaccination is the lasting way out of the pandemic," she added.

German Health Minister Jens Spahn told a news conference Saturday that the  "vaccine is the decisive key to end this pandemic ... it is the key to getting our lives back," per AP. 

Go deeper... The challenge of 2021: Vaccinating the world

Editor's note: This article has been updated with news of the coordinated rollout. 

EU launches coronavirus vaccine drive to inoculate 450M people

"Vaccination is the lasting way out of the pandemic,"  European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said.

Krystyna Matusik, a nurse from the Intensive Care Unit is given the first jab of Pfizer BioNTech Covid-19 vaccine 

Krystyna Matusik, a nurse from the Krakow University Hospital Intensive Care Unit, is given the first jab of the Pfizer-BioNTech Covid-19 vaccine in Krakow, Poland, on Sunday. Photo: Omar Marques/Getty Images

World

Coronavirus vaccines

Public health

Conflicts, policies and powers are intersecting and shaping the world. Breaking news and analysis of national security, foreign policy and global crises.

Expanded unemployment benefits are set to lapse for millions of struggling Americans after President Trump resisted calls to sign the stimulus bill before the end of Saturday.

Why it matters: "States cannot pay out benefits for weeks that begin before the bill is signed, meaning that if the president does not sign the bill [Saturday], benefits will not restart until the first week of January. But they will still end in mid-March, effectively trimming the extension to 10 weeks from 11," the New York Times reports.

Such inaction could trigger a federal government shutdown "when money runs out at 12:01 a.m. Tuesday in the middle of a pandemic," AP notes.

Context: Trump blindsided lawmakers on Tuesday when he indicated that he would not sign the $900 billion coronavirus relief bill and $1.4 trillion government funding measure passed by Congress if it's not amended to increase stimulus payments.

By the numbers: As of Nov. 28, there were 14 million people receiving unemployment benefits through the Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA) and Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation (PEUC) programs, an increase of 958,000 from the previous week, Axios' Dion Rabouin reports.

1.4 million Americans filed unemployment claims for the first time earlier this month, with 935,000 filing for traditional unemployment benefits and 455,000 filing claims for the PUA program.

What they're saying: "It is the day after Christmas, and millions of families don’t know if they’ll be able to make ends meet because of President Donald Trump’s refusal to sign an economic relief bill approved by Congress with an overwhelming and bipartisan majority," President-elect Biden said in a statement on Saturday.

"This abdication of responsibility has devastating consequences. Today, about 10 million Americans will lose unemployment insurance benefits. In just a few days, government funding will expire, putting vital services and paychecks for military personnel at risk."

Trump urged lawmakers Saturday night in a Twitter post ahead of the midnight deadline to meet his calls to increase stimulus payments from the agreed $600 that his Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin helped negotiate to $2,000.

"Remember, it was China’s fault!" he added, in reference to the virus that has killed and infected more people in the U.S. than any other country.

Go deeper ... Pelosi on Trump's call to increase stimulus payments: "Let's do it!"

Editor's note: This article has been updated with details of the deadline passing, Trump's comments and further context.

Expanded unemployment benefits lapse with relief bill in limbo

Trump indicated earlier this week that he would not sign the bill unless Congress amends it.

Cases of a new variant of COVID-19 first detected in England were confirmed by health officials in Canada, Japan and several more European Union countries Saturday.

Why it matters: While there's no evidence the variant is more deadly than the original strain, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson's announcement that it could be 70% more transmissible prompted dozens of countries to ban travel from the United Kingdom. 

The strain, called B.1.1.7, spurred a cases spike that saw tens of millions of people in England and Wales lock down over the holidays.

Some officials worry it may have been spreading unnoticed worldwide, as few countries have the kind of sophisticated genomic surveillance that enabled British scientists to find the variant, per the New York Times.

What’s happening: The Public Health Agency of Canada confirmed the first two cases in North America of the new coronavirus strain Saturday evening, in the province of Ontario.

The agency noted in a statement "these two cases did not travel outside of Canada."

Officials in Japan said Saturday the country would close its border to all non-resident foreign nationals from midnight Monday through Jan. 31 after seven people tested positive for the variant, broadcaster NHK reports.

In Spain, Madrid's regional government announced Saturday that four people had become infected with the B.1.1.7 strain, according to Al Jazeera.

Sweden's Public Health Agency said Saturday the strain had been detected in a newly returned traveler from the U.K., Reuters notes.

France's health ministry confirmed the first B.1.1.7 case in the country late Friday, per AFP.

For the record: Coronavirus vaccines are starting to be rolled out across North America, European Union countries and nations around the world.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen tweeted Saturday, "Vaccination is the lasting way out of the pandemic."

There's no evidence the B.1.1.7 strain can affect the effectiveness of these vaccinations.

New coronavirus variant reaches Canada, Japan and several EU countries

Some officials worry it may have been spreading unnoticed worldwide, the NYT notes.

 People arrive at a COVID-19 assessment center in Brampton, Ontario, Canada, on Dec. 1

A COVID-19 assessment center in Brampton, Ontario, Canada. Photo: Zou Zheng/Xinhua via GettyImages

COVID-19

Science

Cities

Federal prosecutors and Nashville police on Saturday said they are following more than 500 leads and tips in their investigation into an explosion that rocked downtown Nashville, Tennessee, on Christmas morning. 

The big picture: The explosion, which injured at least three people, caused widespread telephone, internet and other outages in central Tennessee and in parts of neighboring states. Federal agents searched the home of a possible person of interest in the Nashville suburb of Antioch Saturday, per multiple reports. 

Before Friday's explosion that authorities believe was an "intentional act," witnesses reportedly heard a recorded voice from the RV, saying, "Evacuate now. There is a bomb. A bomb is in this vehicle and will explode." 

The voice then started a 15-minute countdown and the RV played music.

Officers, responding to an early morning call on Friday for shots fired, encountered the RV as the recording played, police said. The officers began evacuating nearby buildings.

The RV exploded around 6:30 a.m. CT, according to authorities. 

Lee said preliminary reports show at least 41 buildings and businesses were damaged.

The Federal Emergency Management Agency said Saturday that tissue samples found at the scene were human remains, per AP. 

For the record: A curfew issued by Mayor John Cooper for the downtown Nashville area affected by the blast remains in place until Sunday.

Governor Bill Lee said on Saturday that he has asked President Trump for federal assistance in the state's relief efforts. 

The White House did not immediately respond to Axios' request for comment, but a spokesperson previously said that Trump had been briefed on the incident. 

What they're saying: "We will get to the bottom of this [and] we will find out the story of this individual or individuals ... of this ultimate Scrooge, who on Christmas morning instead of spreading joy and cheer, decided to spread devastation and destruction," U.S. attorney Donald Cochran said Saturday afternoon.

Nashville Metro Police Chief John Drake added that "Nashville is safe. We feel and know that we have no known threats at this time."

 Lee tweeted after visiting the site of the explosion said that the "damage is shocking and it is a miracle that no residents were killed." 

Authorities said they're not ready to identify any suspects or persons of interest.

"We have over 500 investigative leads, and we're following up with every one of those so there are a number of individuals that we're looking at," said Doug Korneski, FBI special agent in charge of the Memphis field office.

Editor's note: This article has been updated with new details throughout.

Federal agents search suburban Nashville home after explosion

"It is a miracle that no residents were killed," Tennessee Gov. Bill Lee said.

Police close off an area damaged by an explosion on Christmas morning on December 25, 2020 in Nashville, Tennessee. 

Police close off an area damaged by an explosion on Christmas morning in Nashville, Tennessee. Photo: Terry Wyatt/Getty Images

Tennessee

Vaccinating the world will be perhaps the single greatest global challenge of 2021, and that process is now beginning in earnest.

The big picture: If you're reading this in Europe, the U.S. or one of several other wealthy countries, you will probably have access to a vaccine in 2021. But if you're in a lower-income country, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa, you could be waiting until 2023.

The first vaccines to gain regulatory approval in the West — from Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna — are bound almost exclusively for wealthy countries, at least in the near term.

Many rich countries have hedged their bets by buying enough doses of several different vaccine candidates to cover their populations even if some candidates aren't approved.

At least 7.7 billion vaccine doses have already been purchased, with another 3.9 billion reserved should countries or blocs elect to expand their orders, according to Duke University's tracker.

If you combine both categories, the U.S. has reserved nearly one-quarter of the global supply with 2.6 billion doses.

Not a single country in sub-Saharan Africa has announced a deal to purchase vaccine doses, though Johnson & Johnson is aiming to produce 300 million doses in South Africa next year.

Data: Duke Global Health Innovation Center; Chart: Axios Visuals

It's not just that access to doses varies wildly by income level — richer countries are also buying different vaccines than poorer ones.

 India is home to the world's largest vaccine manufacturer, and has sealed massive deals to begin to cover its population of nearly 1.4 billion.

Those deals are with Novavax, which has yet to release efficacy data, and AstraZeneca, whose vaccine appears to be about 70% effective but is undergoing further evaluation and testing.

The EU has purchased roughly the same number of doses but has a much more diversified portfolio. It includes 300 million doses of the Pfizer vaccine, the first shipments of which will begin on Thursday.

Several developing countries have struck deals for just one vaccine candidate, often from Russia (as with Kazakhstan, Nepal and Venezuela) or China.

Breaking it down: A forecast from The Economist Intelligence Unit projects that the most fortunate countries — including the U.S., U.K., EU and Japan — will spend the first half of 2021 vaccinating priority groups and the second half of the year vaccinating the remainder of their populations.

In other high-income countries — as well as in countries like China, Brazil, India and Russia that are producing or manufacturing vaccines at scale — mass vaccinations will begin next year but likely continue into early 2022.

Other middle-income countries aren’t expected to be able to vaccinate all high-priority groups until late 2021, with mass vaccinations continuing throughout 2022.

Low-income countries that can’t afford to purchase doses in bulk will still be vaccinating high-priority groups into early 2022, with mass vaccinations continuing throughout 2023 and perhaps into 2024.

There are a number of variables that could shift that outlook significantly in either direction.

1. Further announcements on the safety, efficacy and scalability of additional vaccines, including those from Oxford/AstraZeneca, J&J, Novavax and Sanofi, which have together committed more than 2 billion doses to developing countries.

2. More news on Russia's Sputnik V vaccine and on the several vaccines in development in China.

3. The ability to increase manufacturing capacity in the developing world, and to build strong supply chains to ship and distribute doses globally.

4. The efficient distribution of unused doses by rich countries to poorer ones.

5. The engagement of the Biden administration. President-elect Biden has said he'll re-engage with the World Health Organization and restore America's global leadership, but he hasn't spoken about a U.S. role in global vaccine distribution.

The single biggest factor will be the success of the COVAX initiative, from the Gavi vaccine alliance, the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations and the WHO.

Driving the news: Those groups told reporters in a briefing on Friday that they're on track to meet their ambitious goal of ensuring at least 20% of the population in virtually every country on earth has access to a vaccine by the end of 2021.

The big picture: COVAX is the only route to a vaccine for dozens of countries, and wealthier participants will effectively subsidize their access.

What to watch: The aim for the first half of 2021 is to provide enough doses to all participant countries to cover frontline health and social care workers.

Then comes the 20% wave, which is intended to reach the most vulnerable people in each country.

Dr. Krishna Udayakumar, director of Duke's Global Health Innovation Center, says the 20% target will be very difficult to hit next year, and 60%-70% vaccination rates — the target for herd immunity — are unlikely before the end of 2022 even in a best-case scenario.

Yes, but: Vaccinating the most vulnerable and combining vaccination with other public health measures to slow the spread will allow "a real reduction in death and disability but also really an uptick in economic activity," he adds.

Sunday's top stories