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National

President Trump was informed in late January of a memo from White House economic adviser Peter Navarro that warned the novel coronavirus could kill up to half a million Americans and cost trillions of dollars, the New York Times reports.

Why it matters: Trump has repeatedly denied seeing January and February memos that Navarro sent, while insisting he did "more or less" what his adviser suggested by banning non-U.S. citizens from traveling from China effective Feb. 2.

Early missteps allowed COVID-19 to spread throughout the U.S. for weeks before state and local officials took action with strict lockdowns designed to keep the pandemic from spinning further out of control.

What they found: After Trump was presented with a mitigation plan on Feb. 24, "focus would shift to messaging and confident predictions of success rather than publicly calling for a shift to mitigation," NYT reports.

Trump's scheduled meeting with health officials advocating for widespread stay-at-home directives was replaced with the Feb. 26 White House briefing that put Vice President Mike Pence in charge of leading the administration's response to COVID-19, per the Times.

The axed meeting came after Trump "fumed" over a CDC official's public warning that mitigation efforts like social distancing would be necessary, the Times reports.

What they're saying: “While the media and Democrats refused to seriously acknowledge this virus in January and February, President Trump took bold action to protect Americans and unleash the full power of the federal government to curb the spread of the virus, expand testing capacities and expedite vaccine development even when we had no true idea the level of transmission or asymptomatic spread,” Judd Deere, a White House spokesperson, told Axios in a statement.

Go deeper: Read the Navarro memos, first published by Axios

NYT: Trump was told in Jan. about memo warning of mass coronavirus death

Trump has repeatedly denied seeing memos sent by Navarro.

In this image, Trump stands in the briefing room 

President Trump listens to a question during a White House Coronavirus Task Force briefing on April 10. Photo: Alex Wong/Getty Images

Politics

Donald Trump

Health Care

Coronavirus

2024 will be an election year like no other, as President Biden seeks re-election amid economic uncertainty, two wars and questions about his age. His likely foe, former President Trump, faces felony charges and vows revenge on his political enemies. Meanwhile, Americans generally are dissatisfied with those choices and are divided over immigration, race, education and more.

Politics & Policy

The U.S. health system faces critical questions about cost, access and equity. Technological advances and new discoveries about diseases like cancer and Alzheimer’s are transforming patient care and reshaping public health.

Health

The journey from field to plate has been interrupted in our locked down world.

Why it matters: With some crops rotting in fields and others subject to export bans, the coronavirus crisis could cause shortages in richer countries and hunger in poorer ones.

In Europe, as in North America, the harvest depends on migration. 

German asparagus, French strawberries and Italian tomatoes are picked by Poles, Romanians and Bulgarians. 

Harder borders are now limiting movement, and workers are reluctant to travel due to fears of infection or quarantine.

Officials across Western Europe have declared farmhands critical workers. They've also called on newly unemployed people to take to the fields — the French agriculture minister called for a “shadow army” of waiters, hairdressers and hotel staff.

It's not so simple. “Dutch people are used to working Monday to Friday, nine to five. But the asparagus keeps growing seven days a week,” one farmer told the Economist.

In India, the food supply depends on tens of millions of people working in farms, transporting food, and selling it in wholesale markets and at small stands.

When the national lockdown snapped into place, gaps appeared all along that chain.

“All the eateries on the highways are closed. I have nothing to eat,” a truck driver attempting to deliver tomatoes to New Delhi told the Wall Street Journal. “Everyone says we should keep delivering essential supplies. But the supply link can continue only if we survive.”

Fearing a prolonged crisis, some countries have halted exports of key foodstuffs — rice from Vietnam, wheat from Kazakhstan, fish from Cambodia.

That could have serious downstream effects for poor countries that import most of their food, the Washington Post notes, though other big exporters plan to keep trade flowing.

The bottom line: "There is enough food, but food and other essential commodities must keep moving," John Crisci, supply chain director at the UN World Food Program tells Axios. "We cannot let this health crisis turn into a food crisis."

How the coronavirus is disrupting the global food supply

“All the eateries on the highways are closed. I have nothing to eat."

Illustration of an onion with skin like the crust of the earth sliced in half

World

Deep Dive — Coronavirus 5

Business

Conflicts, policies and powers are intersecting and shaping the world. Breaking news and analysis of national security, foreign policy and global crises.

Axios AM

Finish Line

Axios Finish Line

America is facing what feels like a Darwinian moment where the strong in business, wealth and health are more likely to survive, while many others will sadly wither.

Why it matters: The pandemic is exposing — and deepening — many of the nation's great divides.

Many of the people who are disproportionately hurt by the virus have the least control over or say in the system. 

It’s predominantly the old — and the previously or already ill — who are getting hit the hardest.  

As we told you in last week's Deep Dive, it's exposed long-standing health care inequities and communities of color and low-income families are bearing the brunt. 

All week, we saw a stream of new data showing a shockingly disproportionate toll among African Americans.

But the imbalance transcends demographics:

Those without health insurance are less likely to get tested or seek treatment, increasing their mortality rate.

Those with weak governors or mayors, slow to react or stubborn to face reality, will suffer and die from belated social distancing and stay-at-home mandates.  

Those with strong health and immune systems are likelier to survive. Here, as in Italy, it is likely those who develop the strong antibody that defeats the virus will be first back to work and to return to normal life. 

The Darwinian dynamic feels especially acute for business. Millions of companies and jobs will be wiped away, with mainly the strong — or well connected — able to hang on.

Those companies with strong connections and lobbyists will get bailouts to stay alive. 

Those smaller businesses with good connections to banks will be first in line for government money to stay afloat. 

Those with strong balance sheets — and not inflated paper value or hype — will thrive and attract more emergency capital from investors. 

Those mom and pop shops with good local businesses but thin margins will struggle mightily and many will go under without substantial aid delivered quickly. The hourly workers who make them possible will suffer, too. 

Those workers who can easily transition to remote work will be fine. Those in blue collar jobs that can only be done in person are not only more vulnerable to the virus but also losing their jobs and insurance.

The bottom line: As with so much in American life, the coronavirus draws out the sharp divides between the nation's haves, and have nots, as who you are, who you know and where you live can make the difference in everything, including life and death.

America's gaping coronavirus inequality

As with so much in American life, the coronavirus draws out the sharp divides.

This graphic shows people who face unequal coronavirus outcomes

Leading coronavirus modeling has recently lowered its projection for the number of American deaths, a sign that social distancing is working. 

Data: IHME; Chart: Danielle Alberti/Axios

Between the lines: By the time we recognized that the virus was spreading in the U.S., we were left with two terrible options: Allow hundreds of thousands — if not millions — of Americans to die, or shut down the economy. We chose the latter, and the numbers are showing that our collective sacrifices have likely prevented the former, for now.

The bottom line: If we stop social distancing too early, or don't take the right precautions to prevent future outbreaks, the number of projected deaths could jump right back up.

Leading coronavirus modeling shows that social distancing is working

The numbers are showing that our collective sacrifices are taking hold.

As the coronavirus continues to spread throughout the U.S., Axios is answering readers' questions about the pandemic — how it spreads, who's at risk, and what you can do to stay safe.

What's new: This week, we answer questions on exercising outside, safely doing laundry, soaps and disinfectants, and the pneumonia vaccine.

Q: Should I go outside to exercise during the outbreak?

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention encourages people to exercise. If you go out, avoid groups and stay 6 feet away from others, per social distancing guidelines. 

Consider wiping down benches or items that other people may have touched before you, Axios' Stef Kight writes.

Q: How can I make sure I'm safely doing laundry at home or in my apartment building's laundry room?

Avoid shaking dirty clothes because that could spread the virus, and be sure to clean and disinfect clothing hampers.

Wash laundry in the warmest water and dryer heat settings recommended for the fabric, and dry clothes completely before them putting away. 

Wear disposable gloves if you are handling a sick person's clothes and wash your hands right away. Their clothes can be washed with anybody else's.

Marilyn Roberts, professor of environmental and occupational health at the University of Washington, told Wirecutter that when using communal laundry rooms, it's best to maintain 6 feet from other people and can be wise to wipe down high-touch surfaces.

Wirecutter also advises that if you use a laundry service, let your laundry sit for a couple of days as viruses don't survive very long on fabric.  

Q: What counts as soap? Can I use dish detergent or body wash?

The Food and Drug Administration says there isn't enough evidence to suggest antibacterial soap is more effective than regular hand soap, which works just fine.

Dish detergent, body wash and hand soap typically have similar detergent molecules that make them effective against germs. The only difference is how harsh they are on your skin, NPR found.

Go deeper: Your best defense against coronavirus

Experts do not recommend making your own hand sanitizer. There wouldn't be quality control to ensure the mixture has enough alcohol, among other issues, The New York Times writes. 

You can make your own disinfectant spray or wipes at home, the CDC says. Add 5 tablespoons of unexpired household bleach per gallon of water for an effective disinfectant against the coronavirus.

Q: Could the pneumonia vaccine offer some kind of protection against COVID-19?

The World Health Organization states the coronavirus is so new and different it will need its own vaccine.

We are still at least a year away from getting an effective vaccine against the coronavirus on the market.

Go deeper: We're still in the early days of coronavirus vaccine research

Coronavirus Q&A: exercise, laundry, what counts as soap, and vaccines

Axios is answering readers' questions about the pandemic.

Illustration of virus surrounded by question marks

Police around the globe are taking extra efforts to enforce social distancing over Easter weekend.

Why it matters: Officials say that mitigation efforts like social distancing are beginning to flatten the coronavirus curve in crucial areas across U.S. and Europe, like New York and Lombardy in Italy. Large Easter Sunday gatherings would mean some of that crucial progress is squandered.

Italy and Spain have set up roadblocks and police checks across the country, AP reports.

In France, where more people are dying each day than in Italy and Spain, police have ramped up checkpoints.

South Korea has threatened to track residents with electronic wristbands if they break self-quarantine.

Police in the U.K. are using drones to shame those found in violation of the country's social distancing rules, and small shop owners are told they shouldn't sell "nonessential" chocolate Easter eggs.

Hawaii issued a nighttime curfew through Easter weekend that bars all forms of transportation from 11 pm to 5 am.

Kentucky police will record the license plates of people attending Easter services and they will be required to self-quarantine for 14 days, Gov. Andy Beshear (D) said on Friday. Those residents will be notified of their misdemeanor violation. 

In Illinois, Police Director Brendan Kelly said "there’s not going to be law enforcement storming into church buildings," but said there would be consequences "down the road" if lives are put at risk by those breaking stay-at-home orders. Residents could face reckless conduct charges.

The other side: Religious services are exempt from stay-at-home orders in Florida and Texas, per the Times, and Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp (R) has let pastors decide if they should hold services.

"While Easter and Passover typically mean time spent with family, friends and one’s congregation, it’s important for all to remember to stay home and celebrate these important religious holidays with immediate household members," Washington Gov. Jay Inslee (D) said on Friday.

The bottom line: Social distancing measures could bring the total projected death toll in the U.S. down to 60,000, a significant drop from earlier models that projected between 100,000 and 240,000 deaths, according to Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases.

Go deeper: Easter poses major social distancing test

Coronavirus prompts extreme efforts against Easter gatherings

Large Easter gatherings could squander crucial progress made by social distancing.

In this image, rows of pews are shown in a church

Good Friday in the Cathedral of Our Lady of the Angels in Los Angeles. Photo: Brian Van Der Brug/pool/AFP via Getty Images

Axios

Saturday's top stories

NYT: Trump was told in Jan. about memo warning of mass coronavirus death

How the coronavirus is disrupting the global food supply

America's gaping coronavirus inequality

Leading coronavirus modeling shows that social distancing is working

Coronavirus Q&A: exercise, laundry, what counts as soap, and vaccines

Coronavirus prompts extreme efforts against Easter gatherings

U.S. passes Italy on recorded coronavirus deaths

Generation V for virus

New coronavirus surge: Disinfecting health care worker face masks

Big Tech moves into government vacuum on coronavirus