A Democratic fairy tale is coming to an end in West Virginia, where Sen. Joe Manchin's decision not to seek re-election threatens to blow up the party's chances of holding the Senate — and potentially the White House — in 2024.

Why it matters: Without Manchin — widely viewed as the only Democrat who could run competitively in deep-red West Virginia — Republicans likely will need to flip just one or two Senate seats to take control of Congress' upper chamber, depending on the outcome of the presidential race.

• Perhaps more alarming for Democrats, Manchin's announcement left open the possibility that he would run for president on a centrist third-party ticket.
• "What I will be doing is traveling the country and speaking out to see if there is an interest in creating a movement to mobilize the middle and bring Americans together," Manchin said in a video statement.

The big picture: The conservative Democrat, who's been in the Senate since 2010, will leave behind a complicated legacy.

• Manchin frequently butted heads with Democratic leadership, especially in recent years as his influence reached its peak in the narrowly divided chamber.
• He never shied away from criticizing President Biden's agenda or threatening to tank Democratic legislation and nominations, even flirting with the idea of becoming an independent as the infighting mounted.
• But without Manchin, Biden never would have passed his signature legislative achievement — the Inflation Reduction Act, a $740 billion package that featured the largest climate investment in U.S. history.

Between the lines: The massive spending bill took a sledgehammer to Manchin's image back home in West Virginia, and disputes with Biden over its implementation have increasingly left him on a political island.

• Facing long odds in next year's Senate race, Manchin has toyed with the idea of running on a bipartisan presidential ticket sponsored by No Labels, which praised him in a vague statement reacting to his retirement.
• In July, Manchin shot back at Democratic criticism that he would be a "spoiler" candidate who could help elect former President Trump: "If I get in a race, I'm gonna win," he said.

What to watch: There are no obvious Democratic successors to Manchin, and West Virginia Gov. Jim Justice was already favored to win next year's Senate race assuming he becomes the GOP nominee.

• With Manchin's seat firmly in the Republican column, Sens. Jon Tester (D-Mt.) and Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) — the other two red-state Democrats up for re-election — will move further into the political spotlight.
• "This officially makes us Mitch McConnell's number one target. You can bet that every dollar national Republicans would have spent in West Virginia is now coming to Montana," Tester said in a fundraising appeal.

The upside: Abandoning a West Virginia race that already was tilting red will free up Democratic resources to defend incumbents and go on offense in Texas and Florida — the only potential pick-up opportunities.

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Vivek Ramaswamy's surprise attack on RNC chair Ronna McDaniel at last night's debate tapped into very real feelings of discontent bubbling within the GOP since well before Tuesday's election debacle.

Why it matters: McDaniel — hand-picked by Trump in 2017 — was comfortably re-elected in January despite presiding over three consecutive disappointing election cycles.

• That includes a House Democratic landslide in 2018, Trump's defeat and a Democratic Senate takeover in 2020, and a "red wave" that failed to materialize in 2022.
• While Tuesday's disappointing results were at the state level, the Virginia GOP today explicitly blamed the RNC for failing to match Democrats' spending spree on abortion-centric legislative races.

The other side: A source familiar with the matter told Axios the RNC offered to help this summer but was told it wasn't needed.

What they're saying: "Ronna, if you want to come onstage tonight, you want to look the GOP voters in the eye and tell 'em you resign, I will ... yield my time to you," Ramaswamy said in his opening remarks, minutes after McDaniel had introduced the candidates to the live audience.

• "He's at 4%. He needs a headline," McDaniel shot back at Ramaswamy in an appearance on Fox Business.
• "The RNC doesn't do state races, we're a federal committee. So we weren't involved in those races on Tuesday," she added.

House Republicans today pulled their third government funding vote in two weeks due to threats from moderates and conservatives to kill the legislation, Axios' Andrew Solender reports.

Why it matters: Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) is facing the same internal GOP divisions that led to the ouster of former Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) — and they may be getting worse.

• "I don't think the Lord Jesus himself could manage this group," Rep. Troy Nehls (R-Texas) told NBC News.
• "There's 20 or 30 Republicans that are more in the Biden districts, the frontline ... we're tired of taking crappy votes," said Rep. Don Bacon (R-Neb.).

The intrigue: Moderates from swing districts had objected to language in one spending bill related to abortion policy in D.C. — a recognition of the political potency of the issue in recent elections.

State of play: With eight days until the next government funding deadline, the Biden administration has begun making contingency plans for a shutdown for the second time this year, the Washington Post reports.

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Dissatisfied with both Biden and Trump, some Arizona swing voters would prefer Robert F. Kennedy Jr. in 2024, Axios' Eugene Scott writes from our latest Engagious/Sago focus groups.

Why it matters: Interviews with Arizona voters who pivoted from Trump in 2016 to Biden in 2020 suggested they are open to a third option.

• "With so much antipathy toward Trump and Biden, swing voters are off-the-charts receptive to a third alternative, especially one with such a recognizable name," said Engagious president Rich Thau, who moderated the focus groups.
• "I like the Kennedys. I would look at the past with their family for the ones that … helped run this country. That would be my reason why I would like to choose a Kennedy to come back into office," said Tina N.

Wild card: Jill Stein, who won 1.4 million votes as the Green Party's nominee in 2016 and was blamed by some Democrats for swinging the election to Trump, announced today she is again running for president.

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