Rising food, rent and labor costs, mixed with falling post-pandemic demand, are spelling disaster for some independently owned restaurants, industry experts say.

• And we've seen the evidence around New Orleans for months, as restaurant after restaurant has shuttered.

Why it matters: The result is "carnage everywhere," says Robért LeBlanc, co-owner of LeBlanc + Smith, which operates Sylvain, The Chloe and The Will and The Way, even as new entrants try to break through.

Driving the news: Many independent restaurants have struggled to cope with declining demand and higher costs, while pandemic-era loans are coming due, says Joe Pawlak of restaurant industry consulting firm Technomic.

• As a result, restaurants are raising prices — or shutting their doors.
• "The independents," Pawlak says, "can't survive."

Be smart: Cutting costs in an industry with already razor-thin margins is tricky.

• Those that have attempted to cut food costs, Pawlak says, can end up with reduced meal quality.
• Meanwhile, cutting staff harms the guest experience.

What's next: With little control over food and rent costs, restaurants will likely be forced to experiment with staffing.

• "We're always going to need labor in restaurants, but it's how you use it and optimize it" that can make the difference, Pawlak says.

That means there's a need for new technology to help automate menial, repetitive tasks while letting human staff focus on creating a real sense of hospitality.

• "People expect service as part of the entire experience," Pawlak says.

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The restaurant business model is broken. But some New Orleans chefs and restaurant owners are finding clever ways to change it.

Why it matters: Every win offers a lesson for another business.

The big picture: Restaurants traditionally plan their budgets in thirds, with one-third going to wages, another to food costs and the remaining third to overhead and rent.

But at Lengua Madre, chef Ana Castro found that offering a tasting menu — with its set dishes and predictable ingredient needs — could change the math on her modern Mexican restaurant's budget.

• "Our food cost was 19%," Castro says. "We were serving truffles, caviar, but we were super controlled. We looked at bookings to see how many we'd have in a week and find highs and lows on the menu, [or ask our vendors] 'Can you offer me a less-looked-at source of fish?'"

Worth noting: Lengua Madre did close in December 2023, a planned change as Castro works to open her next project, Acamaya.

• But the space will soon become The Wild South, another tasting menu-style restaurant from Coquette chef Michael Stoltzfus.

Meanwhile: Other restaurants tack on often ill-defined "service charges," though some businesses say the fees are used to cover increased staff costs as restaurant workers demand better pay and benefits.

• Such charges are showing up on bills at 16% of today's restaurants, according to the upcoming National Restaurant Association's State of the Industry Report, and we've spotted them frequently around the New Orleans metro.
• At Dakar NOLA — considered one of last year's best new restaurants — service charges cover an $18 minimum wage for all staffers, plus health and life insurance, says co-owner Effie Richardson.

Axios' Karri Peifer contributed to this report. Go deeper for her reporting on Richmond, Virginia, restaurants that came out stronger after the pandemic.

🥷 A masked burglar broke into Bittersweet Confections in the CBD and stole "a stack of king cakes, some cash and a case of Tito's." (WDSU)

📝 Gov. Jeff Landry's New Orleans Transition Council says crime and the "root causes of it" are the "preeminent issues impacting" the city. They offered 34 recommendations. (Full report)

Landry seeks to restart executions in the state and will seek approval for additional methods at next month's special session on crime. (NOLA.com | The Times-Picayune🔒)

Cardell Hayes, who was accused of killing former Saints player Will Smith, was convicted Saturday in a retrial for manslaughter. (AP)

🙌🏽 The saltwater intrusion crisis is over after 209 days. Boothville, the last contaminated water system, is clean as of last week. (Army Corps)

The restaurant industry is showing signs of life nationally after a brutal stretch brought on by the COVID-19 pandemic, per new Yelp data shared with Axios.

What's happening: Nearly 53,800 restaurants opened their doors last year, up 10% from 2022, based on new Yelp listings, writes Axios' Alex Fitzpatrick and Kavya Beheraj.

• Another way of looking at that figure: It's up 2% from 2019, meaning there's been a slight increase in openings compared to pre-pandemic times.

By the numbers: Some of the fastest-growing restaurant categories include dessert shops (up 66% in 2023 compared to 2022), creperies (+63%) and hot pot joints (+53%).

• A few other intriguing data points: African restaurants are up 65% when compared with 2019 levels, while Peruvian restaurants increased 28%.

Zoom in: In New Orleans, the story is a little different.

• Here, Yelp data indicates that restaurant openings are down nearly 15% since before the pandemic — but they are on the rise.

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Despite a dreary start, the weekend's weather cleared well enough for a glorious batch of parades, including Krewe du Vieux.

Driving the news: The satirical, often raunchy parade rolled through the French Quarter on Saturday night.

• Chef Isaac Toups and his partner, Amanda, reigned over the festivities.

See the full parade schedule for what's on tap this week