Axios AM

January 16, 2024
☀️ Happy Tuesday! Smart Brevity™ count: 1,466 words ... 5½ mins. Thanks to Erica Pandey for orchestrating. Edited by Emma Loop, Noah Bressner and Bryan McBournie.
1 big thing: Trump's wakeup call

The astonishing speed and sweep of former President Trump's victory in last night's Iowa caucuses delivered a massive wakeup call to Republican skeptics still dreaming of a post-MAGA world, Axios' Zachary Basu writes.
- Why it matters: Inevitability has been the prevailing theme of Trump's quest for a third straight GOP nomination. His historic win in Iowa — called by networks 31 minutes after caucusing began — moves the country one step closer to the longest general election campaign in history.
Iowa's 3 takeaways
1. Trump's perfect night.
- He couldn't have scripted it any better: Trump won 98 of 99 counties in Iowa, dominating virtually every demographic, while physically campaigning in the state far less than any of his top rivals.
- Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis edged former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley for a distant second — giving both an incentive to stay in the race and further divide voters searching for a Trump alternative.
- Vivek Ramaswamy, who had sought to brand himself as the MAGA movement's heir apparent, suspended his campaign after a disappointing fourth-place finish and quickly endorsed Trump.
- Trump was in rare form early in his victory speech, urging the party to "come together" behind him and complimenting DeSantis, Haley and Ramaswamy without the usual insults — a subtle power move that seemed to signal his team will ramp up the pressure on his remaining rivals to drop out.
2. DeSantis cries "election interference."
- The Florida governor's campaign staff and allies spent much of the night furiously attacking the media for calling the race for Trump before some caucus-goers had even cast their votes.
- "The media is in the tank for Trump and this is the most egregious example yet," DeSantis campaign spokesman Andrew Romeo said in a statement.
- Still, DeSantis — who predicted six weeks ago that he would win Iowa — celebrated his 30-point loss to Trump and declared onstage that "we've got our ticket punched out of Iowa."


3. Haley's path narrows.
- Haley, a former South Carolina governor, was counting on a second-place finish in Iowa to knock out DeSantis and set the stage for a stunning upset in independent-minded New Hampshire, where polls show she's within striking distance of Trump.
- But Haley's momentum from recent debates failed to translate to a surge in Iowa. Her strategy of mining anti-Trump and moderate votes in Iowa's suburbs fell short, and her claim last night that the GOP nomination battle is now a "two-person race" didn't quite land with the force she was hoping for.
- Haley stopped Trump from sweeping all 99 counties by a margin of just one vote in Johnson County (home to the University of Iowa) — an apt metaphor for the daunting task ahead.

🔮 What's next: The three top candidates' travel schedules speak volumes about the state of the Republican primary.
- Haley is heading straight to New Hampshire, where even an upset victory on Jan. 23 may not answer pressing concerns about how she can expand her coalition beyond moderates and college-educated voters.
- DeSantis is aiming to take the fight to Haley by flying straight to her home state, which holds its GOP primary on Feb. 24. It's a tacit acknowledgment that he's in a deep hole in New Hampshire.
- Trump will be in New York today — not to campaign, but to attend the first day of trial in writer E. Jean Carroll's defamation lawsuit against him for comments he's continued to make after being found liable for sexually abusing her.
2. 🌽 Lowest turnout in decades

Last night's caucuses are on track to have the lowest GOP turnout since 2000, Axios' Erin Doherty writes.
- Why it matters: Voter turnout was a major question ahead of the caucuses as extreme weather slammed Iowa.
🧮 By the numbers: Roughly 110,000 Republicans caucused last night, according to preliminary results from the state GOP.
- 187,000 Republicans turned out to caucus in 2016, the last competitive Republican nomination contest, which was a record high.
Keep reading ... More pics from Iowa's frozen vote.

3. 🌍 Sullivan to talk Gaza, Ukraine in Davos

White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan will deliver a speech today at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, and lay out the Biden administration's approach to the wars in Gaza and Ukraine as well as U.S.-China competition, Axios' Barak Ravid writes.
- Why it matters: Sullivan's speech comes as the administration seems to be struggling to make progress in two wars in which it's highly invested.
🖼️ The big picture: In Gaza, President Biden is becoming more and more frustrated with the Israeli government's policy — and with Benjamin Netanyahu.
- In Ukraine, the administration still hasn't been able to get a deal with Congress to fund additional military aid, which could leave an opening for Russia.
- America's allies in the West and the Middle East are increasingly raising questions about the U.S.'s handling of both crises.
🔎 Zoom in: On the wars, Sullivan will argue that "the U.S. and like-minded partners are determined to show that aggression will fail and tough-minded diplomacy can succeed," according to a White House official.
- On China, Sullivan will continue to make the case "that the U.S. does not seek conflict. Instead, we will continue to compete vigorously to shape the future of the international system," the official added.
4. 🍑 Biden badly behind in Georgia


President Biden trails former President Trump by 8 percentage points in a hypothetical rematch in Georgia, Axios' Erin Doherty writes from an Atlanta Journal-Constitution poll of registered voters out today.
- Why it matters: The poll offers an early warning sign for Biden, who flipped Georgia blue in 2020 for the first time in nearly three decades.
🧮 By the numbers: Trump led Biden 45-37% in the poll of registered voters, with 6% undecided and another 12% planning to back a different candidate or not vote, according to the AJC — which, like Axios, is owned by Cox Enterprises.
🔎 Zoom in: The poll shows Biden's support wavering among Black Georgians, a voting bloc that was key to his success in Georgia in 2020.
- 10% of Black Georgians don't plan to vote for president in 2024.
- 58.6% of Black Georgians say they would support Biden, while 20.4% said they would support Trump.
5. 💼 Pandemic's permanent legacy
Illustration: Annelise Capossela/Axios
Just six of 158 U.S. CEOs said they'll prioritize bringing workers back to the office full-time in 2024, Axios' Emily Peck writes from a new survey released by The Conference Board.
- Why it matters: Executives are increasingly resigned to a world where employees don't come in every day, as hybrid work arrangements — mixing work from home and in-office — become the norm for knowledge workers.
🔭 Zoom out: "Remote work appears likely to be the most persistent economic legacy of the pandemic," Goldman Sachs economists wrote in a recent note.
- 20-25% of workers in the U.S. work from home at least part of the week, according to data Goldman cites. That's below a peak of 47% during the pandemic but well above its prior average of around 3%.
The bottom line: "The battle is over," said Diana Scott, human capital center leader at The Conference Board. "There are so many other issues CEOs are facing."
6. 🤖 AI built for you
Image: Microsoft
DAVOS, Switzerland — Microsoft announced new subscription AI services for individuals and small businesses that will include the ability to create custom chatbots.
- Why it matters: The move, unveiled at the World Economic Forum, allows access to tools of the future that Microsoft had previously reserved for larger organizations, Axios' Ina Fried reports.
👀 Zoom in: A $20-per-month Copilot Pro subscription includes access to Copilot in Office apps like Word, Excel, PowerPoint, Outlook and OneNote.
- Custom chatbots, which Microsoft calls Copilot GPTs, are "coming soon."
OpenAI's ChatGPT Plus offers some of the same features, including the ability to create custom chatbots, at a similar price.
7. 🗞️ TV exec buys Baltimore Sun
Illustration: Eniola Odetunde/Axios
The Baltimore Sun — Maryland's largest newspaper — has been sold by hedge fund Alden Global Capital to David Smith, the executive chairman of the local TV company Sinclair.
- Why it matters: The deal puts the Sun back in the hands of a local owner after nearly four decades, Axios' Sara Fischer writes.
Smith "has given generously over the years to conservative and local causes," The Baltimore Banner notes.
- He criticized the "mainstream media" in his interview with the Sun about the deal.
8. 🎥 Parting shot

Sarah Snook and Kieran Culkin, after winning outstanding lead actress and outstanding lead actor in a drama series for "Succession" at the 75th Primetime Emmy Awards.
- The show also took home the award for best drama.
📬 If you love AM, please ask your friends to sign up.
Sign up for Axios AM

Catch up with the most important news of the day


