Jan 16, 2024 - Politics & Policy

Trump beating Biden in Georgia in early 2024 poll

Data: AJC Legislative Survey; Chart: Axios Visuals
Data: AJC Legislative Survey; Chart: Axios Visuals

President Biden trails former President Trump by eight percentage points in a hypothetical rematch in Georgia, according to an Atlanta Journal-Constitution poll of registered voters out Tuesday.

Why it matters: The poll offers an early warning sign for Biden, who flipped Georgia blue in 2020 for the first time in nearly three decades.

Driving the news: Trump led Biden 45-37% in the poll of registered voters, with 6% undecided and another 12% planning to back a different candidate or not vote.

  • Independent voters appear unenthusiastic about turning out for either candidate in 2024, with 14% saying they would not vote for president.

Flashback: An AJC-University of Georgia poll from November found Biden and Trump essentially tied in Georgia.

  • Biden won Georgia by less than 12,000 votes in 2020.

Zoom in: The poll shows Biden's support wavering among Black Georgians, a voting bloc that was key to his success in Georgia in 2020.

  • 10% of Black Georgians don't plan to vote for president in 2024, according to the AJC poll out Tuesday.
  • 58.6% of Black Georgians say they would support Biden, while 20.4% said they would support Trump.

Between the lines: The poll shows that Republican voters in Georgia aren't fully unified around Trump, with almost one-fifth saying that they would not support the former president if the election were held today.

  • 3% of Republicans said they would vote for Biden, while 6.6% of Republican voters said they would support another Republican candidate.
  • Trump won the 2024 Iowa caucuses in a dominant fashion on Monday, establishing himself as the frontrunner for the nomination.

Zoom out: The Biden campaign has ramped up its 2024 messaging in recent weeks and is increasingly presenting the election as an existential threat to democracy if Trump is elected.

  • Biden is seeking to cast the election in stark terms, rather than present it as a referendum on his first-term in office.
  • The poll found that 62% of registered Georgia voters say they disapprove of Biden's job performance, with 51% saying they "strongly disapprove."

Methodology: The poll was a live interviewer telephone survey conducted January 3-11, 2024 that included a total of 1,007 registered voters in Georgia. It was administered by the School of Public and International Affairs Survey Research Center at the University of Georgia.

  • The calculated margin of error for the total sample is +/-3.1 points at the 95% confidence level.

Go deeper: Biden camp has $117 million post-fundraising blitz

Editor's note: This story has been corrected to say that President Biden trails former President Trump by eight percentage points in the poll, not 8%.

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