Former President Trump, in the past few months, has ...

• Been indicted on 34 felony counts.
• Learned that someone who has worked for him at Mar-a-Lago is cooperating with federal prosecutors on whether he hid documents.
• Faced a civil trial over a rape accusation from 1996.
• Defended his "Access Hollywood" contention that celebrities like himself can grab women by their genitals: "[H]istorically, that’s true with stars."
• Faced rising competition from credible '24 challengers, including Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, former U.N. ambassador Nikki Haley and Sen. Tim Scott of South Carolina.
• Seen a growing likelihood he'll be indicted again — this time for trying to corrupt the 2020 election results.

Why it matters: Trump's grip over Republicans seems stronger than ever — and chances of beating President Biden are as high as ever.

Between the lines: This dynamic is similar to the stunning election of 2016.

• Call it the Trump Law of Inverse Reactions: Everything that would seem to hurt him only makes him stronger.

At the same time that all of the above was happening, Trump has:

• Moved up in Republican primary and general-election polls.
• Won a flurry of '24 endorsements from House Republicans — including several from Florida, beating DeSantis at a high-stakes inside game.
• Raised a formidable $34 million for his '24 campaign — with a surge of donations after his indictment.
• Run former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, who looked set for a '24 run, out of the race.
• Revved up his voters with continued claims that the Deep State is targeting him — which doubles as an appeal to all voters who view elites skeptically.

What we're hearing: For the first time in a long time, top Republicans and Democrats are telling us the same thing, in the same words — Trump looks impossible to beat for the Republican nomination.

• And if Trump is the GOP nominee, he could have a better-than-coin-flip chance of moving back into the White House. A Washington Post-ABC News poll out Sunday had Trump leading Biden by seven points — outside the margin of error — in a theoretical rematch.
• A stunning finding in that poll: Even though majorities think Trump should face criminal charges, 18% (!) of those who want him arrested still back him over Biden. 

The bottom line: Here's another echo of 2016. Beltway and establishment Republicans are fantasizing that something magical will make Trump go away — instead of deploying a coordinated effort to supplant him.

• You know how that worked out last time.

Josh Kraushaar contributed reporting.

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Editor's note: This newsletter item has been corrected to show Trump faced a civil trial over a rape accusation from 1996, not a charge.

This year has seen more mass killings to date than any other year since this database started in 2006.

• A mass killing is defined as an incident in which four or more victims, not counting the assailant, are killed.

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American extremists are consistently turning up on loosely-governed Russian social media platforms, Axios Media Trends expert Sara Fischer reports.

Why it matters: Real-world hate crimes in America are often influenced by online chatter that's increasingly linked to Russian sites or pro-Russian narratives on more obscure parts of the internet.

• 💭 "You couldn't imagine an easier way of allowing discord to grow within the U.S. and the Western world than suddenly letting people do it to themselves," said Neil F. Johnson, a physicist at George Washington University who focuses on data science to attack complex real-world problems.

What's happening: The gunman who killed eight people and injured seven in a shooting at a mall in a Dallas suburb on Saturday had a profile on the Russian social networking platform OK.RU that he used to reference posts from white nationalists, NBC News reported.

Between the lines: The Texas shooter wasn't the first American to use Russian social media sites or obscure online platforms to connect with fellow extremists around pro-Russia narratives.

• Jack Teixeira, the 21-year-old Air National Guardsman who was charged with leaking highly-sensitive classified documents, belonged to a slew of game forums and private online chat rooms where members showed support for Russia's war on Ukraine, per The Wall Street Journal.

🧠 How it works: Russian social media sites like OK.RU and VK are far less regulated than American social media platforms, but are easily accessible in the U.S., making them a haven for extremists.

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O.G. tech giant IBM is launching a counterstrike in the industry's suddenly hot AI fight with the announcement today of Watsonx, Axios' Ryan Heath reports.

• Why it matters: IBM says its latest AI offering, launching in July, provides more accurate answers and takes a more responsible approach than rivals.

Microsoft, OpenAI and Google are rushing to lock down potentially massive new consumer markets for generative AI.

• IBM instead is leaning into helping other companies implement their AI via a "data model factory" that offers IBM clients products tuned for their specialties in domains like language, code, chemistry and geospatial data.

IBM CEO Arvind Krishna told Axios he has been courting clients 'who care a lot about accuracy.'

• Rob Thomas, IBM’s chief commercial officer, said: "AI may not replace managers. But managers that use AI will replace the managers that do not."

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The American Dynamism practice of Andreessen Horowitz, the top venture-capital firm, today announced a $500 million commitment to early-stage companies that "support the national interest."

• Why it matters: The innovative program aims to connect Washington and tech — which so often have stuck to their respective coasts — since "there is no center of gravity for solving America’s biggest problems."

American Dynamism is aimed at "mission-driven and civic-minded founders" in areas that are important to Washington — but at times have been underrated by Silicon Valley, including aerospace, defense, public safety, education, housing, supply chain, industrials and manufacturing.

• "We want to send out a signal [to entrepreneurs] that they don't have to be building a consumer company in Silicon Valley to get the interest of venture capitalists," David Ulevitch, co-leader of the practice, told me.

Katherine Boyle, the other leader, told me: "There was just a flood of founders wanting to work on these massive problems [and] are excited about the patriotic mission of serving the national interest."

• "We haven't always done the best job of coming to Washington and bringing our founders with us," she added. "Now there's this groundswell of founders who are exceptionally excited about these categories."

The bottom line: A Wall Street Journal opinion piece today by Boyle and Ulevitch is headlined: "Venture Capitalists Should Bet on America."

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U.S. Ambassador to Israel Tom Nides will leave his post this summer after nearly two years in Jerusalem, Axios from Tel Aviv author Barak Ravid reports.

• Why it matters: The U.S. ambassador to Israel post is one of America's most sensitive diplomatic positions — due partly to the special relationship between the U.S. and Israel, the large Jewish community in the U.S., and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

While on a working visit to Washington last week, Nides told Secretary of State Tony Blinken and White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan that he wants to finish his posting this summer.

• Nides said he wants to return after being away from his family since December 2021.

Blinken told Axios: "Tom has worked with characteristic energy and skill to further strengthen the special bond between the United States and Israel, and to advance U.S. diplomatic, economic, and security interests."

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Jonathan Karl of ABC News, author of two bestsellers about former President Trump, will be out Nov. 7 with his deeply reported "Tired of Winning: Donald Trump and the End of the Grand Old Party."

• "From his exile in Mar-a-Lago, Donald Trump has engineered a remarkable comeback," Karl told me. "He left the White House as a disgraced and defeated president in January 2021 and managed to once again become the dominant figure in the Republican Party."

The cover shows a bedraggled Trump returning to the White House from his botched rally in Tulsa in June 2020.

• More on the book..

In our "mixed reality" future, where we're as likely to meet in person as we are on a screen, we'll all crave more human connection in our video meetings — and comfy new physical spaces could help.

• Logitech has debuted a lounge-like videoconferencing alcove that it says may be the answer to awkward video calls, Axios What's Next co-author Jennifer A. Kingson writes.

How it works: A telepresence booth lets you chat virtually with a colleague — or boss, shrink, mentor or frenemy.

• What you see is a life-size head and shoulders image against a black background.
• It's meant to eliminate the weird camera angles, lack of eye contact, hinky bits of glare, and cringey backgrounds that so many of us grapple with during typical video calls.

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