Axios AM

October 21, 2023
As a Saturday special, we're bringing you an AM Deep Dive featuring our popular "Axios Explains" series about the Israel-Hamas war.
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Erica Pandey is your weekend AM maestro. This takeover is possible thanks to managing editor Alison Snyder, Dave Lawler, Laurin-Whitney Gottbrath, Sam Baker, Noah Bressner and experts across the Axios newsroom.
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Smart Brevityβ’ count: 1,570 words ... 6 mins.
1 big thing: Inside Biden's Gaza strategy
Photo illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios. Photo: Brendan Smialowski/AFP via Getty Images
President Biden is taking a dual-track approach to the Gaza crisis:
- He's standing staunchly with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in public while trying to hold him back in private, Axios' Barak Ravid reports.
Why it matters: The U.S. supports Israel but doesn't want to get drawn into another large or protracted military operation in the Middle East. Threading that needle is Biden's biggest challenge right now.
Between the lines: Biden set the tone for the U.S. response in a speech just days after the Hamas attack on Israel, when he compared the group to ISIS.
- The speech was aired during prime time in Israel, and it was one of the most-watched TV events in Israel's history.
Biden has used that credibility delicately β he and Netanyahu have a fraught history. During their almost daily calls, Biden has avoided directly pressuring the prime minister, according to U.S. officials.
- Instead, he has asked questions β a gentler way to raise the same concerns.
- 32 Americans died and 11 are unaccounted for after the Oct. 7 terrorist attack on Israel, the State Department said Thursday. Hamas yesterday released two U.S. citizens being held hostage.
β‘ Breaking: Some 20 trucks carrying humanitarian aid crossed into Gaza today after Biden successfully lobbied Egypt and Israel to agree to allow in aid during his visit to Israel three days ago. Get the latest.
π Behind the scenes: Biden himself is the driving force behind much of this strategy, people familiar with the process say.
- His Oct. 10 speech "was all Joe Biden," according to a source familiar with the speech-writing process, who said Biden shot down aides' attempts to water down the language or balance the messages.
What's next: Biden won't be able to stop the war. But he is likely going to continue to use his popularity and credibility among Israelis to influence its path.
2. Mapped: Changing borders


The UN considers the Gaza Strip to be occupied by Israel, along with the West Bank and Golan Heights, because Israel controls the movement of people and goods in and out of the territory and has imposed a land, air and sea blockade.
- Israel argues that it no longer occupies Gaza because it withdrew its soldiers and settlers in 2005 and does not govern the Strip.
3. What to know about Gaza


Gaza and its more than 2.1 million people have been under constant Israeli bombardment since the Hamas terrorist attack.
- The Israeli military is now preparing for a ground invasion of the small coastal enclave βΒ an incursion that is expected to be long and difficult, Axios' Laurin-Whitney Gottbrath writes.
π Zoom out: Gaza is a small Palestinian territory β roughly the size of Detroit β located on the Mediterranean coast.
- Most Palestinians who live in Gaza are refugees. Roughly half are under the age of 18.
π Zoom in: The Gaza Strip is currently run by Hamas, which is considered a terrorist organization by Israel, the U.S. and several other governments.
- Israel, with the support of Egypt, imposed a land, sea and air blockade of Gaza in 2007 after Hamas took control.
- Israel says the blockade is necessary for security reasons, keeping Hamas and other militant groups like the Palestinian Islamic Jihad from importing weapons that can be used against Israel.
Palestinians call the blockade "collective punishment" and say it's turned Gaza into an "open-air prison."
- Palestinians must get permission from Israel or Egypt to leave the enclave, which is often difficult to get.
More than 80% of Palestinians in Gaza live in poverty, according to the UN.

Shouq Al Najjar, a Gazan, told Axios she and her husband had "no choice but to evacuate" their home in Gaza City "because of the Israeli airstrikes that devastated our neighborhood," including reducing their home to rubble.
- "My husband and I started our married life less than a year ago in that house, which now lies in ruins," Al Najjar, 27, said. "Survival feels uncertain."
4. π Hamas' tunnel network

Israeli forces would face Hamas' labyrinthian warren of tunnels under the Gaza Strip in an expected ground assault, Axios' Jacob Knutson writes.
- It's unknown how extensive the tunnels are. But they've grown in scale and sophistication over two decades. Some are even equipped with electricity, lighting and rail tracks.
- They likely span large parts of the Strip, reaching more than 100 feet beneath the surface in some places and ending at dozens of hidden access points. Hamas' leader in Gaza, Yahya Sinwar, claimed in 2021 that the militant group had around 310 miles of tunnels in Gaza.
Why it matters: The tunnels, dubbed by Israel as the "Gaza metro," are vital for Hamas from both an offensive and defensive standpoint.
πΌοΈ The big picture: Hamas' military arm has relied for more than three decades on guerrilla warfare that uses rockets, snipers, improvised explosive devices and underground tunnels to attack Israel.
The militants use the tunnels to smuggle and store weaponry and evade detection.
- Further complicating an invasion, some of the hostages kidnapped in the attack are held in tunnels, Hamas said.

The other side: Israel built a sensor-equipped underground anti-tunnel barrier below a fence spanning its entire border with Gaza.
5. How Israel built its formidable military

For decades, Israel has been one of the most powerful and technologically advanced military powers in the Middle East.
- With an annual military budget exceeding $20 billion and access to some of the most advanced U.S. military hardware, Israel controls the skies and much of the sea around its territory and has superior cyber capabilities.
- Israel is believed to have dozens of nuclear warheads β though it has never acknowledged them β and possesses highly sophisticated drones, fighter aircraft, tanks, submarines and artillery.
The Israel Defense Forces relies on compulsory military service beginning at age 18.
- Since the Oct. 7 Hamas attack, 300,000+ reservists have been called up.


The U.S. is by far the biggest supplier of military aid to Israel, contributing around $130 billion since its founding.
- U.S. military assistance to Israel last fiscal year was worth $3.8 billion, second only to Ukraine. That accounted for 16% of Israel's military budget.
The latest: In his Oval Office address on Thursday, Biden made the case for a sweeping emergency funding request that includes $10 billion for Israel.
- Go deeper: White House fact sheet on the aid package ... Share this explainer.
6. War spills over


The war between Israel and Hamas has already spilled into neighboring countries, with street protests and even cross-border attacks, Axios' Erica Pandey writes.
- Why it matters: Israel's neighbors fear further domestic unrest and mass outflows of refugees as the conflict deepens. Israel fears that a second front could open on the border with Lebanon.
State of play: There have been daily skirmishes along the border, with Iran-backed Hezbollah militants firing dozens of rockets and the Israel Defense Forces conducting strikes of its own.
- Hezbollah has pledged its support to Hamas and has far greater military capability than the Palestinian militant group.
What to watch: The White House has discussed using military force if Hezbollah joins the fighting in Gaza.
7. How Iran fits in
Illustration: AΓ―da Amer/Axios
Iran and the militant groups it backs are forcing Israel and the U.S. to contend with the possibility that the Israel-Hamas war could explode into a regional conflagration, Axios' Dave Lawler writes.
The big picture: President Biden's visit to Israel this week β paired with the movement of U.S. warships and aircraft into the region β was intended in part as a warning to Iran.
- While Hezbollah poses the gravest direct threat to Israel, Iran-linked groups in Yemen, Iraq and Syria could also play a role in the conflict.
π Our thought bubble: Without playing a direct role on the ground, Iran is trying to create an atmosphere in which Israel and the U.S. must constantly be concerned about what it and its proxies might do, Axios' Barak Ravid notes.
- The White House called Iran "complicit" in Hamas' Oct. 7 terrorist attack because it has provided the group with training, funding and support. But U.S. officials have said they have no evidence that Iran was involved in the planning or execution.
At the very least, funding and technological know-how from Iran have helped Hamas increase its military capabilities.
8. π What Barak is reading
Illustration: Maura Losch/Axios
We hope you'll follow Axios' Barak Ravid, a former diplomatic correspondent in Tel Aviv who has been covering the Middle East for 18 years.
Here are two voices providing clear-eyed analysis that Barak told us are worthy of your time:
- Michael A. Horowitz, head of intelligence at Le Beck International, a security and risk management consultancy covering the Middle East, and columnist for Al Majalla, a current affairs magazine.
- Anshel Pfeffer, senior correspondent at Haaretz and Israel correspondent for The Economist.
Go deeper: Our guide to the people, places and terms you need to know to understand the conflict.
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