Axios AM

May 28, 2023
🎣 Happy holiday Sunday. Smart Brevity™ count: 1,492 words ... 5½ mins. Edited by Donica Phifer.
💰 1 big thing: Epic test for Biden, McCarthy

President Biden and Speaker McCarthy finally have a tentative debt-ceiling deal, struck on a holiday Saturday phone call and revealed at 8:30 p.m. ET.
- Now they have to rush it through a balky Congress before the projected default date of June 5 — a week from tomorrow, Axios' Andrew Solender and Juliegrace Brufke report.
Why it matters: The stakes are especially high for McCarthy, whose survival as speaker could be at stake if he can't contain the anger of right-wing Republicans, some of whom are already panning the compromise.
🏛️ McCarthy told reporters at the Capitol just after 9 p.m. ET: "We still have a lot of work to do."
- Biden said in a written statement that the "agreement in principle ... represents a compromise."
State of play: A source close to House GOP leadership told Axios that perhaps 60 conservative Republicans will be against it.
- That means McCarthy could need votes from nearly that many Democrats to pass the plan.
- Biden needs to deliver those votes despite wariness among progressives.
🧠 Here's what's in the deal:
- It raises the debt ceiling until 2025 — past the next presidential election — and keeps non-defense discretionary spending steady. Democrats see those as victories.
- Republicans wanted, and got, new work requirements for people who are on welfare, a boost in defense spending, and clawbacks of unspent COVID aid and IRS funding.
- Another significant GOP win is what's not in the deal — tax increases or any other revenue-raisers.
🔎 Between the lines: McCarthy can likely afford to lose dozens of conservatives' support when the House votes on the plan later this week. What he can't do, however, is anger those members so much they trigger a motion to oust him.
- Under rules McCarthy agreed to in January to secure enough conservative GOP votes to be elected speaker, just one House member can bring a "motion to vacate," and force a vote to remove the speaker.
- So far, no one has threatened that. But the rhetoric was heated Saturday.
The other side: Some Democrats, already fuming about being excluded from the negotiating table, are distressed that the White House isn't doing enough to give them cover to vote for the bill.
- Progressives have objections about the work requirements and energy-permitting changes in the deal, according to two House Democrats.
2. 👢 Texas A.G. impeached

The GOP-dominated Texas House voted 121-23 to impeach Attorney General Ken Paxton, a historic decision that immediately removes the Republican from office as he awaits a Senate trial, Axios Austin's Nicole Cobler reports.
- Why it matters: Paxton becomes just the third Texas state official to be impeached, and the first in 48 years. The others were Gov. James "Pa" Ferguson in 1917 and a district judge in 1975.
Catch up quick: A Republican-led House General Investigating Committee filed 20 articles of impeachment against Paxton after months of secret deliberation.
- The committee alleged a "long-standing pattern of abuse of office and public trust," including bribery and obstruction of justice.
Committee members, who unanimously voted to send the articles of impeachment to the full House, have said that the investigation began because of Paxton's request for the Legislature to pay a $3.3 million settlement of a whistleblower lawsuit against him.
- Four former aides filed the lawsuit, claiming that Paxton fired them in retaliation after they accused him of bribery and abuse of office.
- Back in 2020, it was reported that Paxton had an extramarital affair with a woman whom he later recommended for a job with a wealthy donor at the center of the impeachment allegations.
Behind the scenes: As impeachment proceedings began, Paxton personally called House members threatening them with political retribution if they voted in favor, Rep. Charlie Geren (R-Fort Worth), a member of the House General Investigating Committee, said on the House floor.
- Former President Trump applied more pressure on Republicans less than a half hour before the House convened, calling the vote "election interference."
Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) called the proceedings a "travesty," adding that "the swamp in Austin wants him out."
- It isn't clear when the Senate trial will take place.
Share this story ... Take the Local: 30 Axios Local cities.
3. ⚡ Big change for Common App
Illustration: Maura Losch/Axios
The Common App, used by more than 1 million students applying to college each year, allows applicants to check a box disclosing their racial identity.
- Beginning Aug. 1, colleges will be able to hide that answer from their own admissions officers, the N.Y. Times reports (subscription).
Why it matters: The Supreme Court is expected to rule soon against affirmative action. The preemptive Common App change "appears to be aimed at immunizing colleges from litigation," The Times explains.
Between the lines: Information about how a student identifies could still come across in application essays. "As a practical matter, it would be hard to redact mentions of race," The Times notes.
- And "it would be harder to object to a thoughtful essay that invoked the student's race in the context of a highly personal story."
The Common App will still collect demographic data for its own use.
4. 📷 1,000 words

Vice President Harris, who yesterday became the first woman to give West Point's commencement address, receives a saber from Cadet Melic Belong at the U.S. Military Academy's Michie Stadium in West Point, N.Y.
5. 🕶️ Lifeguard shortage drags into third summer
Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios
A national lifeguard shortage will keep thousands of pools across the country closed or operating with reduced hours for the third summer in a row, Axios' Kelly Tyko reports.
- Why it matters: As pools across America fill up on Memorial Day weekend, experts tell Axios they worry about a higher chance of drownings and pool injuries. The shortage has also led to canceled swim lessons.
About a third of more than 309,000 public pools are affected by the shortage, per estimates from the American Lifeguard Association.
- That doesn’t include beaches, water parks and other venues, which also may have to trim hours, stay closed or operate with "no lifeguard on duty signs."
What’s happening: The pandemic "wiped the slate of certified lifeguards completely clean," Bernard J. Fisher II, director of health and safety at the lifeguard association, told Axios.
Cities and states have been working to provide incentives to get a new crop of lifeguards, including $500 signing bonuses.
6. 📊 67% of on-campus students bet on games
Illustration: Brendan Lynch/Axios
More than half of college-age Americans bet on sports — including two-thirds of those living on college campuses, Axios' Jeff Tracy writes from an NCAA poll.
- Why it matters: The poll was commissioned by former Massachusetts governor Charlie Baker, who became NCAA president in March, "to establish a new baseline of sports betting activity, given the proliferation of online betting platforms and advertising consumed by young people."
🧮 By the numbers: The NCAA polled 3,527 people in the U.S. aged 18-22.
- 58% of respondents had participated in at least one sports betting activity, which includes both daily and season-long fantasy sports.
- 67% of on-campus students had bet on sports. 63% recall seeing ads for sportsbooks. The NCAA notes that is higher than the general population.
The backdrop: Several college sports-betting scandals erupted this month.
- Alabama baseball coach Brad Bohannon was fired amid an investigation into potential match-fixing.
- 40+ athletes at Iowa and Iowa State are under investigation for violating NCAA gambling rules.
7. 🇺🇸 Some gave all

Here's Arlington National Cemetery — final resting place for 400,000 veterans and their dependents — as seen when I took off from DCA yesterday.
8. 💡 1 wise thing: Smart Brevity™ on "Succession"

As I travel the country teaching students, CEOs and others the secrets of our "Smart Brevity" book, I make this key point about why you should just stop:
- If you think about it, at any given meal, meeting, or party, the person running their mouth is rarely the person with the most power, the most life experience, or the most to say.
Turns out ... that's also true on HBO's Emmy-winning "Succession," with its series finale at 9 p.m. ET, as pointed out by The Wall Street Journal's Ben Zimmer, who writes the "Word on the Street" column:
- "How voluminous characters are can also tell the viewer something about their relative status."
Series creator and showrunner Jesse Armstrong tells Zimmer:
"Power on the show expresses itself much more briefly and brutally ... and I would suspect that the least powerful characters probably have the most number of words."
Zimmer adds: "This is particularly true of [awkward cousin] Greg, who once had to testify before a Senate hearing on a company scandal and spun out such convoluted responses as 'Yes, if it is to be said, so it be, so it is.'
- "Compare that logorrhea to the brusqueness of [patriarch Logan Roy], who could crush his own children with the terse dismissal, 'I love you, but you are not serious people.'"
Go deeper: "The Weaponized Language of 'Succession'" (subscription).
- 🎁 Give "Smart Brevity" for graduation.
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