A new analysis argues U.S. domestic natural gas prices are no longer untethered from the growth of liquefied natural gas exports.
Driving the news: The Center for Strategic and International Studies' Nikos Tsafos points out that for most of the five years since U.S. LNG exports began, there was basically no relation to prices.
But that's no longer true.
"In Q3 2021, however, there was strong evidence that exports are the primary demand driver for U.S. gas and thus the increase in prices," Tsafos writes.
How it works: U.S. gas demand has been largely flat, so has production, but exports have been climbing sharply this year and are a "main driver of higher natural gas prices in the United States as the country heads into winter."
Why it matters: Tsafos argues that the political impact of the new landscape depends on how much domestic production responds to higher prices at a time when investors want restraint from drillers.