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Expand chart
Data: Investing.com; Chart: Lazaro Gamio/Axios

The ISM's November U.S. manufacturing index got all the headlines with a fourth straight reading showing the industry in contraction, but IHS Markit's index was also released Monday and told a very different story.

What's happening: Both surveys are well respected by investors and economists, but follow different methodologies. This seems to have created a widening divide in which IHS Markit's data is showing a solid recovery in U.S. manufacturing while ISM's is showing further deterioration.

Why it matters: Manufacturing is a leading economic indicator and if ISM's data is correct, the U.S. economy could be in peril.

  • Alternatively, if IHS Markit data is correct, it appears the industry has found its bottom and has steadily been rebounding over the past few months.

Details: ISM uses five components, each weighted evenly at 20% — new orders, production, employment, supplier deliveries and inventories.

  • IHS uses a weighted average that gives greater importance to new orders (30%), output (25%) and employment (20%), and lower weighting to suppliers’ delivery times (15%) and stocks of purchases (10%).

Be smart: The ISM survey includes only members of the Institute for Supply Management, making it more consistent but also potentially more prone to groupthink. Analysts also have suggested that this makes it more likely to focus on larger companies.

  • IHS Markit says its survey panel includes more companies and is larger than the ISM's stated panel size.
  • The company "surveys just under 800 manufacturing companies (approximately double the size of the ISM panel size) from which an 80% response rate is typically received," IHS Markit's chief business economist Chris Williamson wrote in a recent explainer.

Go deeper:

Go deeper

Updated 7 hours ago - World

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Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador announced Sunday evening that he's tested positive for COVID-19.

Driving the news: López Obrador tweeted that he has mild symptoms and is receiving medical treatment. "As always, I am optimistic," he added. "We will all move forward."

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Former White House press secretary Sarah Huckabee Sanders will announce Monday that she's running for governor of Arkansas.

The big picture: Sanders was touted as a contender after it was announced she was leaving the Trump administration in June 2019. Then-President Trump tweeted he hoped she would run for governor, adding "she would be fantastic." Sanders is "seen as leader in the polls" in the Republican state, notes the Washington Post's Josh Dawsey, who first reported the news.

Coronavirus has inflamed global inequality

Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios

History will likely remember the pandemic as the "first time since records began that inequality rose in virtually every country on earth at the same time." That's the verdict from Oxfam's inequality report covering the year 2020 — a terrible year that hit the poorest, hardest across the planet.

Why it matters: The world's poorest were already in a race against time, facing down an existential risk in the form of global climate change. The coronavirus pandemic could set global poverty reduction back as much as a full decade, according to the World Bank.