Washington's fall could be wetter than normal, NOAA predicts
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Good news for Seattle's rain enthusiasts: The latest fall forecast shows sweater weather may be a bit wetter than usual.
Why it matters: A precipitation outlook released by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Climate Prediction Center on Aug. 15 predicts above-normal rainfall across the Pacific Northwest in September, October and November.
- The temperature outlook, also issued last week, shows equal chances for above, below and normal temperatures in the region over those same three months, NOAA meteorologist Scott Handel told Axios.
What's happening: The seasonal outlooks show the footprint of La Niña's anticipated arrival this fall and winter, which is driving the forecast, Handel said.
- There's a 66% chance for La Niña to develop this fall and a 74% chance it will develop through the winter, he said.
The intrigue: Last year's El Niño brought above-average sea surface temperatures and, in addition to human-caused global warming, helped make 2023 the hottest year on record.
- But it followed three consecutive La Niña years, Handel said. If another develops, it will be our 13th since 1990, he said.
Threat level: November is already Seattle's wettest month, National Weather Service Seattle meteorologist Dev McMillian told Axios.
Yes, but: With drought declared in April over most of Washington state, a La Niña winter is potentially very good news for our snowpack, which determines water supply and is arguably the most crucial climate-related variable in the Pacific Northwest, deputy state climatologist Karin Bumbaco has said.
The big picture: Most of the country is expected to experience an unusually hot and dry fall this year, according to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center.
- The highest probability (above 60%) for above-normal temperatures is predicted for parts of the Southwest and in the Northeast.
The bottom line: If this outlook holds, it might be wise to get those parkas and rain boots out early.