The unpredictable politics of Utah's ballot measures
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Republican lawmakers say their sudden plan to repeal their own ban on collective bargaining for public employees is meant to "reset the discussion." But history suggests it could also deliver a political boost.
- This is Old News, where we look to the recent past to make sense of the near future.
State of play: The Legislature meets in special session Tuesday night to take steps against Utah's new, court-approved, congressional maps, as expected — but also to repeal H.B. 267, the controversial collective bargaining ban they passed this year.
The intrigue: A referendum to repeal the ban was slated for 2026 after labor organizers in April collected more than double the required signatures to place the measure on ballots.
- Polling has shown the collective bargaining ban was deeply unpopular.
Between the lines: By repealing the ban now, lawmakers may avoid motivating voters who oppose it in an election where many of their own seats also are at stake.
- Shifting turnout could also affect a separate potential ballot measure that would effectively protect the GOP-controlled Legislature's ability to gerrymander electoral maps to their own party's advantage.
Catch up quick: Ballot measures likely hurt some Republicans in 2018, when they broadly opposed three that ultimately passed — and Utah sent a Democrat to Congress.
- Voter turnout was higher than in any other midterm in recent memory.
Zoom in: The ballot proposals — which legalized medical cannabis, expanded Medicaid and created an independent redistricting committee — have been credited with engaging voters.
- More people voted on the cannabis question than any other statewide election that year, including the Senate race that sent Mitt Romney to Washington.
Erin's thought bubble: I recall seeing Utahns asking various hometown groups on Facebook how to vote that year, with some so new to the process that they expected to find an online poll at Vote.Utah.gov.
The big picture: Republicans lost ground that year, with Democrats flipping two state House seats, a state Senate seat and a congressional seat.
- Ben McAdams (D) narrowly defeated two-term Republican incumbent U.S. Rep. Mia Love but lost his seat two years later.
The bottom line: Pre-empting a ballot measure that repeals an unpopular conservative law could help Republicans in 2026.