North Carolina: An especially unpredictable swing state
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Illustration: Maura Losch/Axios
With Election Day approaching, North Carolina voters are being pummeled with mail, television ads and visits from former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris, as candidates make their final pitches to undecided voters here.
Why it matters: One of the fastest-growing states in the country, North Carolina has long been considered one of the swingiest swing states.
- In recent months, however, a confluence of factors has made the state, which Trump almost certainly needs to win the White House, especially important — and unpredictable — in this year's presidential race.
- "It's very hard for us to win unless we're able to get North Carolina," Republican vice presidential candidate J.D. Vance told reporters in September.
The big picture: As North Carolina's population has boomed in recent years and the state has grown more racially diverse — a shift that tends to favor Democrats — the party has hoped that the state would tilt in its favor.
Zoom out: North Carolina has voted for a Democratic presidential candidate just once in the last 20 years, when it went for former President Obama in 2008.
- Trump won by fewer than 4 points in 2016, and in 2020, his margin of victory narrowed when he defeated President Joe Biden by just 1.3%.
Catch up quick: As the presidential race started heating up this summer, polling numbers showed Trump on a path to winning the state for a third time, and Democrats' dreams of flipping North Carolina seemed to be fading.
- That changed in July when President Biden dropped out of the race and Harris became the nominee. Almost immediately, the polls tightened, showing Harris and Trump neck-and-neck. Democrats reported skyrocketing enthusiasm, and spending started taking off.
By the numbers: Trump, Harris and their affiliates have spent more than $153.5 million on ads in North Carolina so far this election cycle, AdImpact data show — the fourth most expensive state in the country, behind Pennsylvania, Michigan and Georgia.
- The campaigns have also visited the state dozens of times this year.
What they're saying: "The Tar Heel State looks more competitive than ever," with Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents "coming home" to back Harris against Trump in swing states he was tipped to win just months ago, Cook Political Report's Amy Walter wrote in August.
Zoom in: A wrench was thrown in the presidential race here in September, however, when this year's October surprise came early and CNN published its bombshell report on Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson allegedly making numerous unsavory comments on a porn site message board.
- Democrats were giddy. They jumped at the opportunity to link Robinson to Trump, who had endorsed the lieutenant governor and once called him "Martin Luther King on steroids."
- Though it remains unclear if that linkage will hurt Trump in North Carolina, Trump seems to be proceeding with caution: He quietly distanced himself after the story broke last month. Asked by a reporter this week if he still endorses Robinson, Trump said: "I'm not familiar with the race. I haven't seen it."
- Also in September, Hurricane Helene ravaged western North Carolina. Trump and Harris have both visited the region. The storm has become a political talking point, as Trump has criticized the Biden administration's handling of the disaster, and Democrats have criticized Trump for spreading misinformation.
The bottom line: The race for president runs through North Carolina, as term-limited Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper has said.