Harris puts North Carolina back in play
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Illustration: Annelise Capossela/Axios; Photo: Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images
With Joe Biden at the top of the ticket, Democrats' dreams of capturing North Carolina in November seemed to be fading. But the ascent of Kamala Harris could place the Sun Belt state back as a toss up.
Why it matters: In a sign that the race here is tightening, former President Trump has — for the first time — begun spending money on ads in the state, which he will likely need to return to the White House.
- Local Democrats have reported a significant increase in enthusiasm for Harris since Biden dropped out.
State of play: Polls in North Carolina that had showed Trump growing a large lead over Biden now show Harris narrowing the gap — with one Morning Consult poll from late July showing Trump up by just 1%.
- The Harris campaign said North Carolina has been one of its largest sources of new volunteers, with more than 10,000 people recently signing up.
- And there has been an uptick in Democratic voter registration in the state since Biden ended his re-election campaign.
Reality check: N.C. has voted for a Democratic president just twice in the last 50 years, most recently for President Obama in 2008.
- Trump won North Carolina by 1.3 percentage points four years ago — his narrowest margin in any state — and the state's population has since grown by nearly 400,000 people.
What they're saying: Harris' entry has, at least for now, brought an excitement level to the Democratic base — especially among younger voters — that is somewhat reminiscent of 2008, Asher Hildebrand, a political science professor at Duke University, told Axios.
- "It appears, at a minimum, that Biden was dragging the ticket down," he said, "and that Biden's exit and Harris' entry into the race have reverted it back to where we expected it to be."
- "The question is now, can she also appeal to the more moderate independent voters who have been essential to, for example, [Gov.] Roy Cooper's election in the last couple of cycles," he added.
Zoom in: Democrats are focusing on mobilizing recent transplants to the state and emphasizing what they consider to be GOP gubernatorial candidate Mark Robinson's extreme record, tying him to Trump, Axios' Sophia Cai writes.
- The campaign is targeting independent and Republican voters in suburban counties like Union and Johnston as well, highlighting that Nikki Haley received 23.3% of the GOP primary votes in the state.
- This week, the Harris campaign also unveiled the group "Republicans for Harris," led by former GOP voters and elected officials.