Aug 14, 2024 - Politics & Policy

Harris gains swing state edge over Trump: Cook Political Report

April Rubin

A crowd of Harris-Walz supporters at a rally — Supporters attend a campaign event by the Democratic presidential and vice presidential ticket, Kamala Harris and Tim Walz, in Glendale, Arizona, on Aug. 9. Photo: Robyn Beck/AFP via Getty Images

Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris is leading or tied with Republican opponent former President Trump in six of seven key swing states, per a Wednesday report from the nonpartisan Cook Political Report.

Why it matters: Vice President Harris has seemingly flipped the script of the election, as Republicans were projected to take all the swing states just a month ago.

State of play: Harris now has the lead in Arizona, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

She and Trump are tied in Georgia.
Trump still holds a slim lead in Nevada, but Harris has narrowed this margin by six points since May, the report found.

By the numbers: 91% of voters who supported President Biden in 2020 said they would back Harris now, per the report.

This figure was 82% for supporting Biden again.

Context: Trump led Biden in all seven swing states in May.

Earlier this month, Cook Political Report reclassified three key swing states from "leaning Republican" to "toss up."
Trump maintains an advantage on issues including the border, inflation and handling crime, per the report.

The big picture: "Harris' success in closing the gap is driven by her consolidation of the Democratic base, and increased support among independent voters," the Cook report said.

Harris has gained support in Rust Belt states known as the "Blue Wall," Axios' Erin Doherty reported. This area had been growing out of reach for Biden.

The bottom line: "With partisans now equally engaged, the next 80 plus days will be a battle of inches centered on (re)defining the vice president's image and defining the issues over which the presidential election will be fought," the Cook report said.

Methodology: This poll was conducted from July 26 to Aug. 2, 2024 "using SMS-to-Web and online panel methodologies." It surveyed 2,867 likely voters across the seven states, for a margin of sampling error of ±1.83 at the 95% confidence level.

Go deeper: Voters trust Harris more than Trump on economy: poll

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Harris gains swing state edge over Trump: Cook Political Report

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