Trump's immigration crackdown could hurt Oregon agriculture
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President-elect Trump's vow to deport millions of undocumented immigrants could have a significant impact on some of Oregon's most important industries.
Why it matters: Though undocumented immigrants make up a relatively small percentage of the total U.S. workforce, they play an outsized role in construction and agriculture, two crucial industries in the state.
By the numbers: Nationwide, undocumented workers make up 13.7% and 12.7% of the construction and agriculture workforce, respectively, per the American Immigration Council (AIC).
Zoom in: In Oregon, agriculture accounts for 13% of the state's gross product, with roughly $5 billion in production and more than half that as agricultural exports, per a 2021 report from the State Board of Agriculture.
- The state's population of undocumented immigrants is estimated to be about 110,000, according to data from the Pew Research Center, making up 3.9% of the Oregon workforce.
Zoom out: Mass deportations could lead to a loss of about 4.2% to 6.8% of annual GDP, per the report, amounting to between $1.1 trillion and $1.7 trillion. For comparison, the national GDP declined 4.3% during the 2007-09 Great Recession.
Mass deportations would also bring a heavy human toll.
- About 4 million mixed-status families could be separated, affecting 8.5 million U.S. citizens with undocumented family members, according to a report by the American Immigration Council.
- In Oregon, more than 186,000 people live with an undocumented family member, according to data from 2014.
Yes, but: Oregon has some of the strongest state-level sanctuary laws in the country, which prohibits state and local law enforcement from participating in immigration enforcement without a judicial warrant.
- "There is concern that under a Trump administration, sanctuary states like Oregon could be a focal point of enforcement due to retaliation about our refusal to conform to federal directives," Evelyn Kocher, communications manager with the Latino Network, told The Oregonian.
What they're saying: Austin McClister, a spokesperson for the Oregon Farm Bureau, said the issue of undocumented immigration isn't one that can be addressed solely by a new administration, and that both state and federal lawmakers have a role to play.
- "It's widely accepted that the immigration system must be fixed, but solutions should ensure vital industries like farming, processing, distribution and food services are not harmed by unintended consequences."