Focus groups: Pennsylvania swing voters aren't sold on Shapiro
Add Axios as your preferred source to
see more of our stories on Google.
Gov. Josh Shapiro speaks during a press conference. Photo: Matthew Hatcher/Getty Images
Gov. Josh Shapiro may have a perception problem among some Pennsylvania swing voters, recent Engagious/Sago focus groups suggest.
Why it matters: Some analysts have floated Shapiro as a possible presidential contender in 2028, but political observers warn that he must first decisively win reelection next year.
- A poor showing, especially among independent and right-leaning voters that Democrats need to retake the White House, could complicate Shapiro's chances to rally national support if he chooses to run.
Driving the news: Most comments about Shapiro in the recent focus groups were critical, with only two of the 13 Biden-to-Trump voters who participated supporting a potential Shapiro presidential run in 2028.
- And some of the swing voters expressed inaccurate views about Shapiro's policy stances and the positions he's held in state government.
Case in point: One voter, a 61-year-old from Havertown, incorrectly stated that Shapiro was lieutenant governor during the COVID-19 pandemic.
- He blamed Shapiro, who was attorney general at the time, for being directly involved in imposing strict business closures when then-Gov. Tom Wolf was the one ordering the shutdowns.
Another voter claimed Shapiro supported the "defund the police" movement, when he has pushed for increased funding to recruit more officers.
Between the lines: The two recent Engagious/Sago online focus groups, which Axios sat in on, involved 13 Pennsylvanians who voted for Biden in 2020 and Trump in 2024.
- Six identified as Republicans, three as Democrats and four as independents. Many were from Philly and surrounding areas that tend to lean liberal, Randall Miller, St. Joe's professor emeritus and political commentator, tells Axios.
- The focus groups were conducted earlier this month, before the arson attack at the Pennsylvania governor's mansion while Shapiro and his family were inside.
- Although a focus group is not a statistically significant sample like a poll, the responses show how some voters are thinking and talking about current events.
What else they're saying: One voter felt Shapiro took action that suppressed free speech on Pennsylvania college campuses.
- Shapiro, who's been outspoken against antisemitism, had denounced universities for failing to guarantee the safety of students during pro-Palestinian protests last year.
- "I don't like any candidates that take any action to limit free speech on college campuses," Anna D., 32, of Northampton, said during the panels.
Stephanie S., a 40-year-old from Ambler who supports a 2028 Shapiro bid, felt the current governor has always "been a champion" of Pennsylvania.
- "He just feels like somebody who really has the state at heart."
Others said they didn't think he had done anything notable since helping to get I-95 fixed in less than two weeks in 2023.
Context: Shapiro was among a group of Democratic leaders who sued the Trump administration this month for halting federal pandemic relief money from the state's schools. Shapiro also filed suit against Trump in February over the freezing of $1.2 billion in federal funds.
- Plus, Shapiro has been fighting against the president's new tariffs and meeting with Pennsylvania businesses to better understand their impacts.
The bottom line: "Shapiro is back to facing the perpetual question posed by skeptical voters: 'What have you done for me lately?'" said Rich Thau, president of Engagious, who moderated the focus groups.
- "It's blame the government, blame the incumbent," Miller says. "Perception is everything in politics. There's real work to do in the short term to change the perception."