What's ahead in Josh Shapiro's potential path to 2028
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Gov. Josh Shapiro stumped for Vice President Harris during the recent campaign trail. Photo: Hannah Beier/Getty Images
Gov. Josh Shapiro's stock continues rising as speculation swirls that he could be Democrats' presidential candidate-in-waiting. But several roadblocks stand in the way of his path to 2028.
The big picture: The Pennsylvania governor first faces the 2026 midterms, which will test his reelection bid after a red wave swept the state this month, political observers tell Axios.
- All the while, he'll need to shore up recognition with voters outside of Pennsylvania, per findings from our latest Engagious/Sago focus groups.
- "Gov. Shapiro still has a long way to go to become a household name," Engagious president Rich Thau, who moderated the focus groups, tells Axios.
By the numbers: Four of the 14 swing voters from key battleground states who participated in the focus groups this week said they want Shapiro to emerge as the Democratic frontrunner in the next presidential race.
- But many others said they're unfamiliar with Shapiro and his policies.
- And four voters said they'd like to see another Pennsylvanian at the top of the Democratic ticket in 2028: billionaire businessman and Mavericks owner Mark Cuban.
How it works: The voters who took part in the online panels all had one thing in common: They backed President-elect Trump in 2016 but switched to President Biden in 2020.
- In this election, five voted for Trump, five for Vice President Harris, three for libertarian Chase Oliver and one for Jill Stein.
- While a focus group is not a statistically significant sample like a poll, the responses show how some voters are thinking and talking about current events.
Context: Shapiro, a former attorney general and state lawmaker, has captured the spotlight after emerging as a runner-up in this year's Democratic veepstakes.
- He was tapped to speak in a primetime slot at the Democratic National Convention, and barnstormed the country for Harris and other Democratic candidates.
- As governor, Shapiro has reached consensus on several issues in Pennsylvania's divided government, and he was heralded for how he managed the I-95 collapse.
Yes, but: The political landscape has shifted: State Democrats maintained the House, but Republicans still control the Senate, and they swept other major races, including attorney general and U.S. Senate.
- Political observers say Republicans will be better positioned to challenge Shapiro in 2026 compared to the last election, when members of the party regarded Doug Mastriano as divisive.
- One contender already being floated is Stacy Garrity, who was just reelected state treasurer, St. Joe's professor emeritus and political commentator Randall Miller tells Axios.
The other side: The president's party usually loses ground in lower-turnout midterms, political analyst Larry Ceisler tells Axios.
- He says that means Shapiro "will be running probably in a pretty good environment" in 2026.
What he's saying: Shapiro said at a news conference this week that he's staying focused on his job and on "finding common ground" with all elected leaders.
What we're watching: Shapiro has faced headwinds with state lawmakers in securing more funding for schools and SEPTA, the Philadelphia region's teetering transit agency.
- They could keep him from implementing some of his policies in the coming years.
Plus: Shapiro could find himself in Trump's crosshairs for supporting Harris.
- Trump hasn't mentioned Shapiro directly but has talked about seeking revenge on perceived enemies.
The bottom line: "The mantra of Shapiro is 'get stuff done,' but stuff can happen and he may not be able to fix it," Miller says.
Editor's note: This story has been updated to clarify that Larry Ceisler is a political analyst (not a political consultant).