Philadelphia sees drop in homicide rates

As Mayor Cherelle Parker focuses on public safety, Philadelphia has experienced a 37% year-over-year decline in homicides, according to criminal justice consulting firm AH Datalytics.

Why it matters: The number of homicides in major American cities is falling at its quickest pace in decades following huge jumps during the pandemic, Axios' Russell Contreras writes.

• The nation is on track to see one of the lowest levels of violent crimes and homicides since President Obama was in office.

The big picture: Polls show crime is a top concern ahead of the 2024 election — and it's an issue where Republicans regularly edge Democrats.

• But falling homicide rates could take the steam out of the crucial GOP advantage.

By the numbers: Homicides declined by nearly 20% in 204 cities during the first three months of 2024 compared to the same period last year, per AH Datalytics.

• At this pace, the murder rate in the U.S. could match its level in 2014 when many cities saw 30-year lows in violent crime and homicides.
• The big decline in homicides, as calculated by AH Datalytics, was first reported by the Wall Street Journal.

State of play: Homicides, shootings and gun arrests have been up in Philadelphia since 2015, with sharp increases during the pandemic, police say.

• Police commissioner Kevin Bethel said in a recent 100-day report that the department is deploying a "pinpoint" strategy to target violent crime in 10 police districts that accounted for more than three-quarters of the city's shootings last year.
• Violent hotspots include Kensington and Allegheny avenues, Lehigh Avenue and Broad Street and 52nd and Market streets, per police.

What they're saying: Kalfani Turè, a criminal justice professor at Widener University, tells Axios that Philly's recent downward crime trend is promising but could "simply be an aberration" unless accompanied by sustained reductions over several years.

• Philadelphia experienced a 46% increase in homicides between 2019-2022, peaking at 562 in 2021, before departing from that trend last year.

• Turè says the reduction could suggest police officers "are more engaged again" in efforts to reduce crime after finding themselves under siege because of civil unrest during the pandemic.

Bethel's goal is to cut in half the number of homicides and shootings by 2025.

• He hopes to reduce shootings and homicides this year by 20%, or 328 homicides and 1,328 shootings.
• Philadelphia has recorded more than 80 homicides so far in 2024 compared to more than 120 at the same time last year.

Yes, but: The department has to reach those goals with 1,000 fewer officers on the force, as city officials pledge to hire 400 new officers each year of Parker's mayorship.

Zoom in: Youth gun violence remains problematic, Philly police say, with the number of underage shooting victims nearly doubling from 81 in 2015 to 161 in 2023.

• Last year, two dozen shootings involved multiple underage victims compared to 33 between 2015-2021.
• Police say the percentage of arrests involving youthful offenders has risen from 7% in 2015 to 11% so far this year.

Go deeper