McCormick-Casey race appears likely

Republican David McCormick appears poised to clinch the GOP nomination for one of the most expensive and competitive Senate races in the 2024 cycle but faces a challenge from a little-known candidate who previously ran for the same seat as a Democrat.

Why it matters: McCormick's challenge to Sen. Bob Casey (D-Pa.) is in a swing state that could determine control of the Senate and the presidency, Axios' Stef Kight writes.

• McCormick, a former hedge fund CEO, was the runner-up in 2022's Senate GOP primary in Pennsylvania, losing to former President Trump-backed celebrity doctor Mehmet Oz.
• The brutal primary left Oz bloodied for the general election. He lost to now-Sen. John Fetterman (D-Pa.), who has faced questions about his fitness for office after suffering a stroke and struggling with depression.

Driving the news: Pennsylvania's candidate filing deadline closed yesterday. With no serious challengers listed on the state's candidate website, McCormick avoids a potentially nasty primary.

• Only perennial candidate Joseph Vodvarka gathered enough petitions to challenge McCormick. He ran for Casey's seat in 2016 as a Democrat but didn't survive a petition challenge. He ran as a Republican in 2018 against Lou Barletta but withdrew from the race.
• The early deadline launches Casey and McCormick into an early head-to-head matchup, while GOP challengers fight it out in primaries in other target states such as Arizona, Montana and Ohio.

By the numbers: Early polls have consistently shown Casey with a lead over McCormick.

Go deeper