Louisiana's close Senate race fuels Democrats' hopes
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Though the blue wave that flipped seats like a tsunami elsewhere only lapped at Louisiana's midterm shores, it was still enough to make Democrats confident that change could come here, too.
Why it matters: Gov. Jeff Landry is up for reelection next year, and Democrat Jamie Davis' performance illustrates that "that race is in play," says former New Orleans Mayor and Democratic adviser Mitch Landrieu.
The big picture: Republicans lost control of the U.S. House and Senate on Tuesday night, with losses in key races up and down the ballot.
- The Democrats notched historic wins in seats long considered safely Republican, including Texas and South Carolina.
Zoom in: Louisiana Republican Rep. Julia Letlow won the Senate seat, but the race was surprisingly narrow, especially with endorsements from Landry and President Trump.
- Davis, a virtually unknown Black farmer from Tensas Parish, secured 49.1% of the vote without any serious backing from the national party.
- He fell shy of the win by about 25,000 votes, according to complete but unofficial data from the Louisiana Secretary of State.
Stunning stat: An NBC analysis shows that every single parish swung left by at least 10 points.
What they're saying: "You always think 'woulda coulda shoulda,' but I don't want anyone to coat last night as anything other than a massive victory" for Democrats, Landrieu tells Axios New Orleans.
- "Democrats can win in Louisiana if they put the right coalition together and have the right candidate, and Jamie is as close to the right candidate as we've had in a long time."
Between the lines: But Davis still didn't secure the national attention other long-shot Democrats secured in Texas and Mississippi.
- In the campaign's final days, longtime Democratic strategist James Carville told the Louisiana Illuminator that, if Davis "loses by two points, we are going to get up Wednesday morning, and we are going to wonder where the hell" were national Democrats?
- "There's a real fight for [Louisiana] … that this election sets the bar for," says Ashley Shelton, the CEO of the Power Coalition, a left-leaning voting advocacy nonprofit. "The South had something to say, and they said it pretty loudly. Even though Louisiana didn't say it as loud, it's loud enough for people in this state to start paying attention."
Context: Louisiana's new closed party primaries also gave Davis more time to build name recognition and delivered a primary knockout to incumbent Republican Sen. Bill Cassidy.
The bottom line: Democrats "have underinvested — as many of us have complained for years — in the South," Landrieu says.
- "Last night was just the beginning."