Scoop: Senate Republicans fear Mississippi is in play
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Senate Republicans are weighing three last-ditch spending moves that would have been unimaginable six months ago: a cash infusion for Mississippi and even more money for South Carolina and Kansas.
Why it matters: It's been 94 years since Kansas elected a Democratic senator, 44 years for Mississippi and 28 for South Carolina. But panic is spreading through the Republican Party.
- "The wall has broken. The enemy is inside the fort," one national Republican political operative told Axios. "We are now fighting hand to hand."
- The Senate map, which once looked impregnable for Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.), is now full of vulnerabilities.
- Democratic challengers are polling within the margin of error in more than half a dozen deep-red states, according to internal GOP polls.
The other side: "We're nervous about Alaska. We're nervous about Michigan. We're still going to hold the Senate at the end," said another operative.
Zoom in: Two weeks ago, when Senate Leadership Fund decided to take out a $5 million "insurance policy" in South Carolina, operatives took a hard look at Idaho, South Dakota and Mississippi.
- At the time, they concluded they didn't need to spend any money in those states, according to a person familiar with the matter.
- But Senate Republicans are now reviewing the Mississippi race and may need to spend there to protect Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith from a surprisingly competitive bid by Democratic district attorney Scott Colom.
- Senate Majority PAC, the main super PAC for Senate Democrats, announced a $1.2 million investment in the race on Tuesday.
Zoom out: In early June, SLF started to reinforce a Midwestern red wall to protect the GOP majority, reserving $28 million in TV advertising in Ohio and $11 million in Iowa.
- Those investments have ballooned to $93 million in Ohio and $53 million in Iowa.
- After an initial $5 million buy in South Carolina, SLF's spending has increased to $8.5 million, according to AdImpact. And a super PAC linked to Sen. John Barrasso (R-Wyo.) is spending another $500,000 in South Carolina.
- SLF, which is linked to Senate GOP leadership, has earmarked $14 million for Kansas, and has spent nearly $12 million there so far.
- "No Republican seat is safe this cycle," another operative told Axios.
What we're hearing: Some GOP Senate candidates do, in fact, appear safe this cycle.
- Republicans aren't overly concerned about Sens. Ashley Moody in Florida or Mike Rounds in South Dakota.
The intrigue: The National Republican Senatorial Committee raised $31.4 million last month, but its coffers appear to be drained. It took out a $20 million loan as it spends aggressively on its coordinated campaign strategy.
- SLF ended September with $155 million in cash on hand, according to its FEC filing.
- The group has spent or reserved $169 million worth of video ads since Oct. 1, according to AdImpact.
- Even President Trump promised to unload another $100 million before Election Day in a Tuesday post on Truth Social, bringing the total from his super PACs to $400 million.
The bottom line: Republicans can still maintain their Senate majority, but none of the polling is giving them a great deal of confidence that they will do so.
