Decades-old GOP winning streaks are suddenly at risk
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Democratic Senate candidate Adam Hamilton campaigns in Lenexa, Kan., on Oct. 4. Photo: Arin Yoon/Bloomberg via Getty Images
Democrats are running surprisingly competitive races in traditionally Republican territory across the country this midterm election cycle, and it's putting GOP winning streaks at risk that stretch as far back as the 1930s.
Why it matters: Democrats hope ending political droughts in states such as Kansas, Texas and South Carolina will help make inroads in what has long been off-limits territory.
Kansas - 1932
- Sen. Roger Marshall (R-Kansas) is facing a surprisingly tough challenge from Democrat Adam Hamilton, a Methodist pastor who has significantly outraised the incumbent GOP senator.
- The two are neck-and-neck in the polls, and Cook Political Report rates the race a tossup.
- A Democrat hasn't won a U.S. Senate seat in Kansas since George McGill was reelected in 1932.
Texas - 1988
- Democratic state Rep. James Talarico is giving Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton (R) a real run for his money in the Senate race. Talarico generally leads in polls by low single digits. Cook rates it a tossup.
- Texas has been a consistent heartbreaker for Democrats in recent cycles. They last won a Senate seat in the state with Lloyd Bentsen in 1988.
South Carolina - 1998
- Polls have routinely shown Republican Sen. Darline Graham, who was appointed to replace her late brother Lindsey Graham following his death in July, leading Democrat Annie Andrews by just a few percentage points.
- Andrews, like other Democratic Senate candidates, has raised colossal sums, while Graham has struggled as a political neophyte. Still, Cook rates the race as "likely Republican."
- The state has gone Republican in every U.S. Senate election since longtime Democrat Fritz Hollings was last reelected in 1998.
Between the lines: Democrat Troy Jackson, if he defeats Republican Sen. Susan Collins of Maine next month, would be the first registered Democrat to win a U.S. Senate seat in Maine since 1988.
- That's a bit of a technicality: Independent Sen. Angus King has caucused with Democrats since he was first elected in 2012.
Gubernatorial races
- Texas hasn't elected a Democratic governor since Ann Richards in 1990, but Democrat Gina Hinojosa is in a tight race with Republican incumbent Greg Abbott that Cook rates as "leans Republican."
- Democrat David Jolly is also hoping for an upset against GOP Rep. Byron Donalds in a race Cook also rates as "leans Republican." Democrats narrowly won the Florida governorship in 1994 and have lost ever since.
- Georgia's Keisha Lance Bottoms and Alaska's Jonathan Kreiss-Tompkins are both vying to be the first Democrats elected governor in their states since 1998. Cook rates Georgia as a tossup and Alaska as "leans Democratic."
House races
- Democrats have never won Nevada's 2nd District, which was created in 1983. It has changed shape over time but has always been anchored in the rural north half of the state.
- Democrats feel they have a strong candidate in former state Assembly Majority Leader Teresa Benitez-Thompson and a weak opponent in former Air Force lieutenant colonel Dave Flippo.
- The party is also bullish about Montana's 1st District, where they hope the populist appeal of former smokejumper Sam Forstag will help him prevail over the GOP nominee Aaron Flint, a veteran and radio host. Democrats haven't won a U.S. House seat in Montana since 1994.
Cook rates Nevada's 2nd Distric as "likely Republican" and Montana's 1st District as a tossup.
The other side: Republicans are also competitive in a handful of races where they haven't won in quite a while.
- Republican former Rep. Mike Rogers is locked in a tight U.S. Senate race in Michigan with Democrat Abdul El-Sayed. He would be the first Republican elected to the Senate from the state since the 1994 GOP wave.
- Democratic Oregon Gov. Tina Kotek faces a close race with Republican Christine Drazan, who would be the first Republican elected governor of the state since 1982.
- Oregon is essentially the GOP's version of Texas: Republicans have lost by single digits in gubernatorial elections since 2002.
