Your guide to Kansas' close Senate race
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Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios
Kansas hasn't elected a Democrat to the U.S. Senate in more than 90 years, but this year's race is a coin flip that could tip Senate control.
Why it matters: Whichever party holds the majority in January decides which bills reach the floor, which judges and Cabinet picks get confirmed and how much of the president's agenda advances.
State of play: Republican Sen. Roger Marshall and Democrat Adam Hamilton are each at around 46% in a RealClearPolitics average of polls through Oct. 10, and Libertarian David Graham drew 4% in a September Emerson College poll.
- The Cook Political Report moved the race to a toss-up in a state President Donald Trump won by 16 points in 2024.
Roger Marshall: The former Great Bend OB-GYN served two House terms before winning his Senate seat in 2020 and has Trump's backing.
- He's defended the administration's tariff power, criticized a bill requiring congressional approval for new tariffs and predicted energy prices will fall after the Iran war.
- His bipartisan bill to make hospitals and insurers post prices was approved by a Senate committee 21-1 in July.
- Last year, he proposed extending the enhanced Affordable Care Act subsidies for one year, then shifting the money into HSA-like accounts in 2027.
Adam Hamilton: The founding senior pastor of Leawood's Church of the Resurrection is running as an "independent-minded Democrat" backed by two former Republican governors.
- His platform blames higher prices on tariffs and foreign wars, and he wants to end the Iran war, which his campaign tells Axios is driving up fuel prices.
- He backs the bill Marshall criticized and would restore the subsidies and reverse Medicaid cuts in last year's tax law, which his campaign says it can fund by undoing tax breaks for data centers, billionaires and large corporations.
- He'd keep a federal manufacturing tax credit for batteries like those built at Panasonic's De Soto plant, which employs around 1,800 people as of June.
David Graham: The Overland Park attorney drew 3% in 2022 and says he wouldn't be beholden to either party's leadership.
- He calls tariffs a tax, would vote to exit the war and wants to move away from taxpayer-funded care like Medicare "as quickly as possible."
Marshall's and Graham's campaigns didn't respond to Axios' request for comment.
What's next: Marshall and Hamilton face off in a debate at 7pm Oct. 21 on Fox 4.