Dems' red-state showings raise prospect of a bigger 2028 map

• The conditions that helped Barack Obama carry conservative states like Indiana and North Carolina in 2008 — an unpopular war, a bruising economy, an electorate hungry for change — could resonate again in 2028.

State of play: Democratic and Republican Senate candidates are running margin-of-error races in red states that not long ago were thought to be forbidding, or even a wasted effort, to many Democrats.

• The Senate races in Kansas and Ohio are tied. So is Nebraska, where independent Dan Osborn is trying to knock off Sen. Pete Ricketts.
• Democrat James Talarico has consistently led polls in Texas, though that race appears to be tightening as money pours into the state on behalf of Republican Ken Paxton. Alaska is also a toss-up.

• President Trump won all these states by double digits in 2024.

Zoom in: Republican operatives told Axios they're far from convinced that what's happening now will create a new slate of swing states in the 2028 race for the White House.

• They see the current campaign as more of a one-off — a combination of dismay with Trump, high prices and uninspiring candidates.
• "None of those states will be targeted [by Democrats] in the 2028 presidential. I will bet big money on that. But … all are in danger this year," one GOP consultant told Axios.
• "It's a function of the atmosphere that we're playing defense in R+15 states. There's lethargy on our side," a Republican pollster said. "I don't think they're the new swing states per se."

But Democrats say better-than-expected performances by their candidates in several red states would at least open the door to an expanded map — with a big "if."

• "An opening, yes," Obama's former chief strategist, David Axelrod, told Axios. "A guarantee, hardly."
• Obama, he said, spent an enormous amount of time in rural communities and got to know voters. The Democrats who are faring well in those places this year have made a point of speaking with, not at, conservatives.

Yes, but: There's no certainty that Democrats will prevail in red states this year, much less set a path for 2028.

• Polls are narrowing in several other Senate battlegrounds besides Texas, and the polling industry has had enough misses and challenges in recent elections to raise questions about whether we're getting an accurate picture of the political landscape at this time.
• Either way, it's safe to say Democrats have made things interesting for the Nov. 3 election.

The big picture: The backlash against Trump has set the tone in many of these surprisingly competitive Senate surprise states, but Democrats also have also benefited from factors specific to each race.

• In Ohio, former three-term Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) is better known than the incumbent, Sen. Jon Husted (R).
• In Texas, Democrats have a seminarian candidate in James Talarico who's emphasized the Bible's teachings as Republicans have tried to tag him as a radical leftist. His opponent, Ken Paxton, has been dogged by corruption allegations throughout the race.
• In Kansas, Democrat Adam Hamilton is the pastor of the largest United Methodist church in the country. His opponent, GOP Sen. Roger Marshall, has been hurt by reports that his former medical practice sued patients for even small unpaid bills, and that his 2020 campaign stiffed a bakery on a $700 bill.

What we're watching: To build on any openings Democrats might realize this year, the party will need a 2028 candidate who can appeal to center-right voters the way Democrats in red states have this year, Axelrod said.

• "Part of the long-term problem for Democrats has been that it's still a party of working people, but it often approaches working people — especially in small towns in rural areas, in the spirit of missionaries and anthropologists," Axelrod said. Like, "we're here to help you become more like us."
• So in 2028, he added,"it depends on who the candidate is, and what kind of bonds of trust that candidate can build."