How Texas went Democratic
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Illustration: Brendan Lynch/Axios
Texas woke up red on Tuesday and went to bed blue.
Why it matters: Just months ago, Democratic campaigns in the MAGA heartland appeared quixotic — obligatory more than realistic.
- Now those Democratic candidates have swept to power, led by two state representatives from liberal Austin — James Talarico, soon to be seated in the U.S. Senate, and Gina Hinojosa, who will take her place in the new year in the governor's mansion.
Zoom in: The Democratic victories were comprehensive. State Rep. Vikki Goodwin (D-Austin) unseated three-term Republican Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick, per the Associated Press.
- Democrat Nathan Johnson, a state senator from Dallas, defeated Republican Mayes Middleton, state senator from Galveston, in the race for attorney general.
What they're saying: "We shocked the world tonight. With a Texas chip on our shoulder, we showed the world that anything is possible tonight," Hinojosa said.
- "We just took back Texas," Talarico told his supporters.
What happened: An unpopular president and high gas and grocery prices deep-sixed red-state GOP candidates across the country.
- But the Texas GOP was further hampered by an unpopular U.S. Senate candidate (even members of his own party impeached him) — Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton.
- And Greg Abbott, who had served as governor since 2015, was unwilling to debate his gubernatorial opponent.
- Meanwhile, the Democrats were disciplined, with Talarico and Hinojosa staying on message about affordability even as their Republican opponents tried to make the race about social issues.
Follow the money: Republicans went down despite a rescue mission from Elon Musk, who gave north of $150 million in support of Paxton's campaign in a single quarter this year — and gave at least $5.5 million to Abbott's campaign this cycle.
The big picture: The Democratic wins have huge implications for the 2028 presidential race.
- Democrats have proven, after years of flailing, that they could win statewide in Texas, potentially putting the Lone Star State and its 40 electoral votes in play.
- Political pundits will be wondering: Was this a one-off wave amid a terrible midterm climate for Texas Republicans — or a sign of foundational change?
The bottom line: Fireworks were shooting off in Austin last night, and state agencies so long occupied by the GOP will now be run by Democrats, opening the way for wide policy changes in long-conservative Texas.