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How Paxton vs. Talarico compares to Cruz vs. O'Rourke

We examine how this year's U.S. Senate race in Texas matches up with the 2018 race.

News

With polls showing a <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="tight U.S. Senate race" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/2026/08/04/poll-talarico-has-slim-lead-over-paxton-in-texas-senate-race" data-vars-content-id="5c128b8c-c462-43b9-b339-965a852cc6aa" data-vars-headline="How Paxton vs. Talarico compares to Cruz vs. O&#x27;Rourke" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/2026/08/04/poll-talarico-has-slim-lead-over-paxton-in-texas-senate-race" target="_self">tight U.S. Senate race</a> between <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="Democrat James Talarico" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/local/austin/2026/03/04/talarico-crockett-democratic-primary-senate-texas" data-vars-content-id="5c128b8c-c462-43b9-b339-965a852cc6aa" data-vars-headline="How Paxton vs. Talarico compares to Cruz vs. O&#x27;Rourke" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/local/austin/2026/03/04/talarico-crockett-democratic-primary-senate-texas" target="_self">Democrat James Talarico</a> and Republican <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="Ken Paxton" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/2026/05/27/thune-paxton-texas-senate-trump" data-vars-content-id="5c128b8c-c462-43b9-b339-965a852cc6aa" data-vars-headline="How Paxton vs. Talarico compares to Cruz vs. O&#x27;Rourke" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/2026/05/27/thune-paxton-texas-senate-trump" target="_self">Ken Paxton</a>, we decided to see how this year matched up against 2018, the last time a Texas statewide election came down to the wire.Why it matters: Democrat Beto O&#x27;Rourke lost that year to U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz by 2.6 percentage points, or about 215,000 votes, in a race that <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="broke fundraising records" data-vars-click-url="https://www.texastribune.org/2018/12/07/beto-orourke-80-million-raised/" data-vars-content-id="5c128b8c-c462-43b9-b339-965a852cc6aa" data-vars-headline="How Paxton vs. Talarico compares to Cruz vs. O&#x27;Rourke" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.texastribune.org/2018/12/07/beto-orourke-80-million-raised/" target="_blank">broke fundraising records</a> and raised (and dashed) Democratic hopes of turning Texas blue.

Home concierge startup launches in Austin

The $199 monthly membership includes 90 minutes of handyman work.

Two ex-Uber execs are bringing their <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="home" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/2026/01/19/affordable-homes-metro-income" data-vars-content-id="a40ca4fe-f739-456e-99f0-e1e1748d410c" data-vars-headline="Home concierge startup launches in Austin" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/2026/01/19/affordable-homes-metro-income" target="_self">home</a> maintenance startup Casa to Austin, promising to put household upkeep on autopilot.Why it matters: <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="Casa" data-vars-click-url="https://getcasa.com/" data-vars-content-id="a40ca4fe-f739-456e-99f0-e1e1748d410c" data-vars-headline="Home concierge startup launches in Austin" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://getcasa.com/" target="_blank">Casa</a> is betting homeowners will pay to outsource the chores that come with <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="owning a home" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/2026/06/19/homeownership-housing-affordability-senate" data-vars-content-id="a40ca4fe-f739-456e-99f0-e1e1748d410c" data-vars-headline="Home concierge startup launches in Austin" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/2026/06/19/homeownership-housing-affordability-senate" target="_self">owning a home</a>, from cleaning out a dryer vent to finding a reliable handyman when something breaks.

ACL Fest leaves Zilker Park a muddy mess

Boots and galoshes were commonplace at this year's festival.

The rains that soaked Austin late last week left Zilker Park a slippery, muddy mess as tens of thousands of people squelched their way through the grounds.Why it matters: The slippery scene once again raised questions about the tradeoffs involved with hosting the festival at Austin&#x27;s marquee municipal park.

What to know before going to ACL Music Festival

ACL Fest is due to kickoff this weekend with heavy rains in the forecast.

Austin City Limits Music Festival is due to kick off Friday, but a forecast of heavy rains could make it a slick mess.Why it matters: The festival takes over Zilker Park for two weekends each fall and brings thousands of music fans to Austin.

Reports: ICE agent who shot man in North Austin wasn't wearing a body camera

Federal officials had pledged to outfit all agents with cameras.

The ICE officer who <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="shot" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/local/austin/2026/09/22/garces-perez-shot-ice-austin-detention-south-texas" data-vars-content-id="fcbace50-2b87-4cb5-9ac2-7b00aa0f90df" data-vars-headline="Reports: ICE agent who shot man in North Austin wasn&#x27;t wearing a body camera" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/local/austin/2026/09/22/garces-perez-shot-ice-austin-detention-south-texas" target="_self">shot</a> a man in North Austin on Sunday was not wearing his agency-issued body camera, multiple national media outlets <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="reported" data-vars-click-url="https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/ice-officer-shot-man-austin-wasnt-wearing-body-camera-rcna599263" data-vars-content-id="fcbace50-2b87-4cb5-9ac2-7b00aa0f90df" data-vars-headline="Reports: ICE agent who shot man in North Austin wasn&#x27;t wearing a body camera" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/ice-officer-shot-man-austin-wasnt-wearing-body-camera-rcna599263" target="_blank">reported</a>, citing anonymous sources.Why it matters: The U.S. Department of Homeland Security <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="pledged" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/2026/07/16/ice-agents-body-cameras" data-vars-content-id="fcbace50-2b87-4cb5-9ac2-7b00aa0f90df" data-vars-headline="Reports: ICE agent who shot man in North Austin wasn&#x27;t wearing a body camera" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/2026/07/16/ice-agents-body-cameras" target="_self">pledged</a> this summer to outfit all ICE agents with the cameras amid several <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="fatal shootings" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/local/houston/2026/08/07/lorenzo-salgado-araujo-ice-killing" data-vars-content-id="fcbace50-2b87-4cb5-9ac2-7b00aa0f90df" data-vars-headline="Reports: ICE agent who shot man in North Austin wasn&#x27;t wearing a body camera" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/local/houston/2026/08/07/lorenzo-salgado-araujo-ice-killing" target="_self">fatal shootings</a> and other use-of-force <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="incidents" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/2026/07/15/maine-killing-fatal-dhs-ice-shootings" data-vars-content-id="fcbace50-2b87-4cb5-9ac2-7b00aa0f90df" data-vars-headline="Reports: ICE agent who shot man in North Austin wasn&#x27;t wearing a body camera" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/2026/07/15/maine-killing-fatal-dhs-ice-shootings" target="_self">incidents</a> nationwide.

ICE agent shoots immigrant in Austin, per local officials

"I am very angry and extremely disappointed," Austin Mayor Kirk Watson said.

A federal <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="immigration" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/politics-policy/immigration" data-vars-content-id="39290dad-ac42-4aac-9ebb-89b116f8d164" data-vars-headline="ICE agent shoots immigrant in Austin, per local officials" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/politics-policy/immigration" target="_self">immigration</a> agent shot and injured a man in North Austin on Sunday, according to authorities, leading to <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="protests" data-vars-click-url="https://x.com/VinnyMartorano/status/2101841738386063798" data-vars-content-id="39290dad-ac42-4aac-9ebb-89b116f8d164" data-vars-headline="ICE agent shoots immigrant in Austin, per local officials" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://x.com/VinnyMartorano/status/2101841738386063798" target="_blank">protests</a> into the evening.Why it matters: Austin became the latest scene of violence involving ICE <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="agents" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/2026/09/17/states-ice-polls-2026-election" data-vars-content-id="39290dad-ac42-4aac-9ebb-89b116f8d164" data-vars-headline="ICE agent shoots immigrant in Austin, per local officials" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/2026/09/17/states-ice-polls-2026-election" target="_self">agents</a> as President Trump pushes to boost deportations.

Behind UT's pivot away from multiculturalism

The elimination of four majors comes as UT embraces a traditional canon.

As the <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="University of Texas" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/local/austin/2026/02/13/university-texas-department-consolidation" data-vars-content-id="e0afdb62-0cce-4d90-8d4e-f3b2693ec7b8" data-vars-headline="Behind UT&#x27;s pivot away from multiculturalism" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/local/austin/2026/02/13/university-texas-department-consolidation" target="_self">University of Texas</a> <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="jettisons" data-vars-click-url="https://www.kut.org/education/2026-09-16/university-of-texas-austin-cuts-ethnic-gender-studies-majors-dei?utm_source=newsletter&amp;utm_medium=email&amp;utm_content=UT%20Austin%20plans%20to%20cut%20Mexican%20American%2C%20African%2C%20women%27s%20and%20gender%20studies%20majors&amp;utm_campaign=KUT%20Daily%2091626" data-vars-content-id="e0afdb62-0cce-4d90-8d4e-f3b2693ec7b8" data-vars-headline="Behind UT&#x27;s pivot away from multiculturalism" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.kut.org/education/2026-09-16/university-of-texas-austin-cuts-ethnic-gender-studies-majors-dei?utm_source=newsletter&amp;utm_medium=email&amp;utm_content=UT%20Austin%20plans%20to%20cut%20Mexican%20American%2C%20African%2C%20women%27s%20and%20gender%20studies%20majors&amp;utm_campaign=KUT%20Daily%2091626" target="_blank">jettisons</a> four academic majors critical to thinking about diversity and world history, the institution is expanding its embrace of traditional great books courses.Why it matters: The moves reflect a big pivot by UT away from some of its prominent academic, multicultural touchstones as it increasingly <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="aligns itself" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/local/austin/2024/08/20/ut-civics-school-conservative-curriculum" data-vars-content-id="e0afdb62-0cce-4d90-8d4e-f3b2693ec7b8" data-vars-headline="Behind UT&#x27;s pivot away from multiculturalism" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/local/austin/2024/08/20/ut-civics-school-conservative-curriculum" target="_self">aligns itself</a> with conservative-minded values.

Texas Democrats find hope in rising suburban turnout

Austin's largest suburban counties saw a surge of Democratic turnout in the March primary.

Austin&#x27;s <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="largest suburban counties" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/local/san-antonio/2025/01/03/fastest-growing-texas-counties-population-census" data-vars-content-id="30ba9fe7-92fa-460b-9afc-9cf1584f4a74" data-vars-headline="Texas Democrats find hope in rising suburban turnout" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/local/san-antonio/2025/01/03/fastest-growing-texas-counties-population-census" target="_self">largest suburban counties</a>, once reliably Republican, have seen an eye-popping increase in the number of Democratic voters, according to county voting data.Why it matters: The battleground for <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="Texas&#x27; U.S. Senate race" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/local/san-antonio/2026/08/20/texas-iowa-senate-election-races-midterms-close" data-vars-content-id="30ba9fe7-92fa-460b-9afc-9cf1584f4a74" data-vars-headline="Texas Democrats find hope in rising suburban turnout" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/local/san-antonio/2026/08/20/texas-iowa-senate-election-races-midterms-close" target="_self">Texas&#x27; U.S. Senate race</a> and other key November contests will <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="play out" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/local/austin/2026/05/28/talarico-paxton-senate-race-texas" data-vars-content-id="30ba9fe7-92fa-460b-9afc-9cf1584f4a74" data-vars-headline="Texas Democrats find hope in rising suburban turnout" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/local/austin/2026/05/28/talarico-paxton-senate-race-texas" target="_self">play out</a> in suburban areas, where energized Democratic voters are determined to push back on President Trump.

George W. Bush not expected to speak at GOP convention

Bush has been obliquely critical of President Trump in the past but has mostly stayed silent on the topic.

Former President George W. Bush is not expected to be among the speakers at next week&#x27;s <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="Republican Party convention" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/2026/08/28/gop-midterm-convention-nfl" data-vars-content-id="86a09edf-e9ed-48c5-9916-e0ce9c323551" data-vars-headline="George W. Bush not expected to speak at GOP convention" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/2026/08/28/gop-midterm-convention-nfl" target="_self">Republican Party convention</a> in Dallas, even though the event is virtually in his backyard.Why it matters: The former president&#x27;s likely absence underscores <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="the schism" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/2023/03/04/trump-cpac-speech-republicans-george-bush" data-vars-content-id="86a09edf-e9ed-48c5-9916-e0ce9c323551" data-vars-headline="George W. Bush not expected to speak at GOP convention" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/2023/03/04/trump-cpac-speech-republicans-george-bush" target="_self">the schism</a> between the Trump-era GOP and the Bush-era GOP.

1.2M Texas voters face questions about their home address

More than 1.2 million Texas voters have been flagged as possibly no longer living at their registered address.

Politics

More than 1.2 million Texas voters have been flagged as possibly no longer living at the address listed on their registration, potentially facing an extra step when they head to <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="the polls" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/2026/08/23/senate-ohio-alaska-iowa-texas-kansas-mississippi-nebraska" data-vars-content-id="d4e5add4-a7c6-4936-a300-d6804d0a5ca1" data-vars-headline="1.2M Texas voters face questions about their home address" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/2026/08/23/senate-ohio-alaska-iowa-texas-kansas-mississippi-nebraska" target="_self">the polls</a> this fall.Why it matters: Voters on the so-called suspense list remain registered and can still vote, but the designation means election officials have questions about whether their registered address is current.

Elon Musk's PAC lawyer eyes Texas congressional seat

The election of Chris Gober would give Musk a close ally in Congress.

The lawyer who helped run Elon Musk&#x27;s efforts to aid Donald Trump&#x27;s 2024 campaign is running for Congress in a Republican-friendly district that stretches from west of Austin to near Houston.Why it matters: The election of <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="Chris Gober" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/local/austin/2026/06/01/austin-texas-spencer-pratt-campaign" data-vars-content-id="3db2a6ca-98c0-4401-bfe7-faee50e906a2" data-vars-headline="Elon Musk&#x27;s PAC lawyer eyes Texas congressional seat" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/local/austin/2026/06/01/austin-texas-spencer-pratt-campaign" target="_self">Chris Gober</a> would give Musk a close ally in Congress as he seeks to continue to <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="shape the GOP agenda" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/2026/07/29/musk-pac-midterm-election" data-vars-content-id="3db2a6ca-98c0-4401-bfe7-faee50e906a2" data-vars-headline="Elon Musk&#x27;s PAC lawyer eyes Texas congressional seat" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/2026/07/29/musk-pac-midterm-election" target="_self">shape the GOP agenda</a>.

Cornyn donors largely keep distance from Paxton

GOP Senate candidate Ken Paxton likely must win over U.S. Sen John Cornyn's supporters to win in November.

Politics & Policy

Few major donors to <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="U.S. Sen. John Cornyn" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/2026/05/27/texas-primary-paxton-cornyn-takeaways" data-vars-content-id="86129321-01fa-43ee-a0e4-943eef7e95a8" data-vars-headline="Cornyn donors largely keep distance from Paxton" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/2026/05/27/texas-primary-paxton-cornyn-takeaways" target="_self">U.S. Sen. John Cornyn</a> have thrown their weight behind <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="GOP Senate nominee Ken Paxton" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/local/austin/2026/05/27/texas-senate-gop-cornyn-paxton" data-vars-content-id="86129321-01fa-43ee-a0e4-943eef7e95a8" data-vars-headline="Cornyn donors largely keep distance from Paxton" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/local/austin/2026/05/27/texas-senate-gop-cornyn-paxton" target="_self">GOP Senate nominee Ken Paxton</a> since the Texas attorney general defeated Cornyn in a May runoff, per an Axios analysis of newly released federal campaign finance data.Why it matters: Paxton likely must rally Cornyn supporters to his side to defeat Democrat James Talarico, a state legislator from Austin and a formidable fundraiser seeking to appeal to moderate voters.

How the Talarico-Paxton race could play out

Talarico links the affordability crisis with corruption, while Paxton frames the Democrat as out of touch.

With Ken Paxton&#x27;s <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="GOP primary win" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/local/austin/2026/05/27/texas-senate-gop-cornyn-paxton" data-vars-content-id="f1d8eded-ce80-478f-a801-449ff75d69a2" data-vars-headline="How the Talarico-Paxton race could play out" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/local/austin/2026/05/27/texas-senate-gop-cornyn-paxton" target="_self">GOP primary win</a> this week, Democrats now have the Republican Senate candidate, tactically speaking, they were hoping for.<ul><li>Now the question is whether their nominee, <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="James Talarico" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/local/austin/2026/05/27/texas-senate-gop-cornyn-paxton" data-vars-content-id="f1d8eded-ce80-478f-a801-449ff75d69a2" data-vars-headline="How the Talarico-Paxton race could play out" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/local/austin/2026/05/27/texas-senate-gop-cornyn-paxton" target="_self">James Talarico</a>, a young state lawmaker from Austin, can deliver them out of the wilderness.</li></ul>

Politics 🇺🇸

How Paxton vs. Talarico compares to Cruz vs. O'Rourke

Reports: ICE agent who shot man in North Austin wasn't wearing a body camera

ICE agent shoots immigrant in Austin, per local officials

Behind UT's pivot away from multiculturalism

Texas Democrats find hope in rising suburban turnout