Analysis: Nashville could be in for a competitive mayor's race

State of play: Mayor Freddie O'Connell, who fought through a crowded field and won the 2023 election on the strength of progressive support, indicated he intends to run but has not officially announced his reelection bid.

The intrigue: Contradicting polling data gives a mixed sense of where things stand for O'Connell 17 months before the 2027 general election.

• Two recent polls — one by Vanderbilt and another by the Republican political consulting firm Baker Group Strategies — show O'Connell with higher than 50% approval.
• In this gritty political climate, that's a notable accomplishment.

By the numbers: Vanderbilt's poll of residents put O'Connell at 54% approval. The Baker Group February poll of likely voters showed O'Connell at 55%.

Caveat: The polls were conducted in the wake of the devastating January ice storm, and just as residents were paying their higher property tax bills.

Friction point: According to both surveys, at least half of Nashvillians think the city is heading in the wrong direction.

• It's a troubling sign for O'Connell, and a data point that harkens back to 2019.

Flashback: The mayor at the time, David Briley, boasted a whopping 66% approval rating in an April 2019 poll from Vanderbilt.

• In the same poll, 45% of residents said the city was on the wrong track. Briley was defeated by Cooper.

Similarly, Cooper enjoyed strong approval ratings, but most residents said the city was on the wrong track in 2023.

• Cooper knew he'd have a fight on his hands to win a second term. As the field of challengers grew, Cooper bowed out of the race.

Zoom out: O'Connell already has at least one opponent in Antioch-area Metro Councilmember Joy Styles.

• Fundraising figures to be one of the biggest hurdles facing Styles as she tries to unseat an incumbent mayor. Until she gains traction with donors, it won't be clear if Styles can stage a viable challenge.
• O'Connell boasts a war chest of $433,000, according to his most recent financial disclosure, and he's been ramping up his fundraising recently.

Zoom in: The uncertainty for O'Connell is whether he's locked down the progressive support that boosted him to his 2023 victory.

• If a progressive challenger like state Rep. Aftyn Behn, state Sen. Charlane Oliver, Councilmember Delishia Porterfield or Councilmember Zulfat Suara entered the race, it would be a major headache for O'Connell.

Between the lines: Policing issues have been a point of contention between O'Connell and the left flank of the council.

• Progressives opposed O'Connell's plan to expand police video surveillance access.
• Council progressives also stood in the way of O'Connell even proposing legislation to give police access to license plate readers.

There's also criticism that Metro hasn't done enough to address its affordable housing crisis.

What we're hearing: A growing number of insiders speculate that state Rep. John Ray Clemmons could try a second time to run for mayor.

• Then there's affordable housing executive Matt Wiltshire, who finished third in 2023.
• Although he doesn't seem close to entering the race now, it wouldn't be surprising to see the business community urge him on, especially if fewer moderate Democrats are in the field.

The bottom line: Being upside down on the right-track/wrong-track number isn't a place a mayor wants to be (see Briley and Cooper).

• But O'Connell has solid financial backing and a legacy political accomplishment in the Choose How You Move transportation funding campaign.
• He indicated to Axios his reelection campaign message will also point out that crime is down and schools are improving.
• It's not a bad sales pitch. At least for now, there isn't a crowded field of challengers standing in his way.