Compared to 1991-2020 averages; Data: NWS; Map: Axios Visuals
Nashville could be in for a winter that is warmer than usual, according to the annual NOAA winter outlook released last week.
Why it matters: The more mild conditions favored in Tennessee and throughout the Southeast follow long-term trends of warmer winters.
Between the lines: NOAA's climate outlooks are probabilistic, which means they communicate the odds of a particular outcome, rather than predicting definitive conditions.
Zoom in: The outlook calls for a weak La Niña event this winter. La Niña is an ocean and atmosphere cycle in the tropical Pacific Ocean. It can influence the path of winter storms in the U.S.
Weather patterns can be easier to predict in years with a strong La Niña driving storm patterns.
A milder-than-average forecast for our region is in line with typical La Niña winters.
Yes, but: Because this La Niña is expected to be weaker, the outlook is less certain. Temperatures and precipitation could vary widely from week to week.
Other factors, including human-caused climate change, could could also play a key role in influencing the winter.
What they're saying: "Winter for many regions across the U.S. is the fastest warming season of all the seasons," said NOAA climate expert Tom Di Liberto on a press call last week.