Dec 1, 2022 - Real Estate

Nashville-area housing price changes by ZIP code

Change in Nashville-area home prices, by ZIP code
Note: "Typical" refers to the average home value in the middle 30% of estimated home values in a region; Data: Zillow; Map: Erin Davis/Axios Visuals

Home prices in and around Nashville are continuing to level off after surging earlier in the pandemic, according to data from Zillow tracking price changes from July to October.

Why it matters: This is the latest evidence that the market is cooling after a white-hot period that strained buyers and pushed more residents out of the urban core.

Zoom in: Zillow data shows costs have fallen the most in Williamson County, although prices there are still among the highest in the state. (For instance, prices dropped 2.2% in the 37027 ZIP code around Brentwood, but the typical price was still north of $1 million.)

Meanwhile: Prices in much of Nashville have largely held steady or declined a bit, with small upticks in southwest Davidson County.

The intrigue: The map shows that prices are continuing to grow further away from the city, reflecting a migration as residents look deeper into the suburbs.

  • "People that were looking closer to the urban core in Nashville have been pushed out to these outer regions to find that affordability that they need," Brad Copeland, president-elect of Greater Nashville Realtors, tells Axios.
  • "That's why we're continuing to see those areas not only hold their pricing, but seeing a slight increase."

Flashback: Prices in Nashville and nationwide shot up in 2021 and earlier this year.

  • In Middle Tennessee, this trend was fueled in part by people moving in from more expensive areas. Copeland says he's spoken to buyers who were moving en masse with groups of friends from California to Williamson County.
  • Because of low inventory, buyers were often forced into fast-paced bidding wars that drove prices even higher, Copeland says.

State of play: Rising mortgage rates seem to have cooled the market, with houses selling more slowly and price cuts becoming more common. Copeland notes many of the areas seeing prices drop are where prices were most inflated over the last year.

  • "People were speculatively pricing in this market, and then suddenly, the buyers left the market," he says.

The bottom line: Copeland says the slowdown reflects skittish buyers who are turned off by rising interest rates and sellers who are coming to terms with a more sluggish market.

  • "Both sides have an adjustment to make in order to get the engine running again."
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