Crockett leads Talarico in Democratic Senate primary, per new poll
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U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett and state Rep. James Talarico. Photos: Joel Angel Juarez and Alberto Silva Fernandez/Getty Images
U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett (D-Dallas) leads state Rep. James Talarico (D-Austin) for the Democratic nomination for U.S. Senate, according to a small survey of 350 registered voters taken before Talarico's viral interview with late-night host Stephen Colbert.
Why it matters: The Democratic race features two rising stars in the party with contrasting styles and messages. The winner will set the tone for the party in a Texas midterm election with nearly every statewide office on the ballot.
Zoom in: Crockett was the choice for 56% of Democrats surveyed while Talarico was favored by 44%, per the University of Texas/Texas Politics Project poll released Wednesday. That question had a margin of error of ±5.1 percentage points, meaning the gap between the candidates could be wider or narrower than indicated, but Crockett's lead at that time would hold.
- Crockett gained national attention for her sharp criticism of President Trump. Even though she entered the race just before the filing deadline in December, just 18% of respondents said they didn't have an opinion of her.
- By contrast, 34% said they didn't have an opinion about Talarico, who has used his Christian faith as a framework to criticize Republicans.
How it works: The poll was conducted Feb. 2–16, before early voting began.
Flashback: Talarico's Feb. 16 interview with Colbert never aired because Colbert said CBS warned him against it, citing a federal directive.
- But Colbert posted it on YouTube, where it's been seen 8.9 million times.
The big picture: The race is garnering national attention as a barometer of the backlash against Trump in a red state. So far, more ballots have been cast in the Democratic primary in Texas than in the Republican primary, a gauge of voter enthusiasm that could continue into November.
The other side: The poll suggests that Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton and U.S. Sen. John Cornyn might be headed for a runoff in the Republican primary.
- Paxton was favored by 36% of respondents, Cornyn by 34% and U.S. Rep. Wesley Hunt (R-Houston) by 26%. That question had a sample size of 350 and a margin of error of ±5.24 percentage points, meaning Cornyn and Paxton are statistically tied.
The intrigue: In a potentially positive sign for Democrats, 46% of respondents said they had an unfavorable opinion of the party, the lowest among 21 Texas Politics Project polls taken over more than 10 years.
- 45% said they had an unfavorable opinion of the Republican Party. That figure has fluctuated between 58% and 41% over the past decade, even as the party has dominated state politics.
What's next: Early voting ends Friday. Election day is Tuesday.