Crockett leads Talarico in Democratic Senate primary, per new poll
Add Axios as your preferred source to
see more of our stories on Google.

U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett and state Rep. James Talarico. Photos: Joel Angel Juarez and Alberto Silva Fernandez/Getty Images
U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett (D-Dallas) leads state Rep. James Talarico (D-Austin) for the Democratic nomination for U.S. Senate, according to a small survey of 350 registered voters taken before Talarico's viral interview with late-night host Stephen Colbert.
Why it matters: The Democratic race features two rising stars in the party with contrasting styles and messages. The winner will set the tone for the party in a Texas midterm election with nearly every statewide office on the ballot.
Zoom in: Crockett was the choice for 56% of Democrats surveyed while Talarico was favored by 44%, per the University of Texas/Texas Politics Project poll released Wednesday. That question had a margin of error of ±5.1 percentage points, meaning the gap between the candidates could be wider or narrower than indicated, but Crockett's lead at that time would hold.
- Crockett gained national attention for her sharp criticism of President Trump. Even though she entered the race just before the filing deadline in December, just 18% of respondents said they didn't have an opinion of her.
- By contrast, 34% said they didn't have an opinion about Talarico, who has used his Christian faith as a framework to criticize Republicans.
How it works: The poll was conducted Feb. 2–16, before early voting began.
Flashback: Talarico's Feb. 16 interview with Colbert never aired because Colbert said CBS warned him against it, citing a federal directive.
- But Colbert posted it on YouTube, where it's been seen 8.9 million times.
The big picture: The race is garnering national attention as a barometer of the backlash against Trump in a red state. So far, more ballots have been cast in the Democratic primary in Texas than in the Republican primary, a gauge of voter enthusiasm that could continue into November.
The other side: The poll suggests that Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton and U.S. Sen. John Cornyn might be headed for a runoff in the Republican primary.
- Paxton was favored by 36% of respondents, Cornyn by 34% and U.S. Rep. Wesley Hunt (R-Houston) by 26%. That question had a sample size of 350 and a margin of error of ±5.24 percentage points, meaning Cornyn and Paxton are statistically tied.
The intrigue: In a potentially positive sign for Democrats, 46% of respondents said they had an unfavorable opinion of the party, the lowest among 21 Texas Politics Project polls taken over more than 10 years.
- 45% said they had an unfavorable opinion of the Republican Party. That figure has fluctuated between 58% and 41% over the past decade, even as the party has dominated state politics.
What's next: Early voting ends Friday. Election day is Tuesday.
