Scoop: Paxton could lose Trump's House majority, top Republicans claim
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Top Republicans are warning that nominating Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton in the Texas Senate race could jeopardize the party's slim control of the House in 2026.
Why it matters: Paxton has won multiple statewide races. But allies of Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) are citing "internal models" and "public and private polling" to claim Paxton would be general election poison in 2026.
A super PAC aligned with Cornyn has commissioned a memo which argues that Paxton would undermine the party's prospects of netting Texas congressional seats.
- Republicans are trying to seize as many as five Democratic-held seats through a rare mid-decade redistricting plan that has the support of President Trump.
- Cornyn allies, including the Senate Leadership Fund, which is aligned with Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) warn that Paxton would be a weak general election candidate.
- The Cornyn team has been highlighting allegations that Paxton abused his office and engaged in infidelity. Paxton has denied wrongdoing.
Zoom in: The memo, written by the GOP firm Deep Root Analytics, says a Paxton candidacy would weaken the party's support from independents, suburbanites and female voters.
- It argues Paxton would prevent Republicans from winning in three of the five Democratic-held congressional seats it is targeting, and that he would imperil more than a half-dozen GOP-held seats.
What they're saying: "Our findings suggest that if Attorney General Ken Paxton is the Republican standard-bearer, his presence at the top of the ticket could significantly weaken Republican performance in down-ballot and congressional races," the memo says.
- "This dynamic could limit opportunities for GOP pickups while also endangering seats previously considered safe."
- "No one appreciates Ken Paxton more than Chuck Schumer and Hakeem Jeffries," said Senate Leadership Fund Executive Director Alex Latcham.
The other side: Paxton adviser Nick Maddux pointed out that Paxton won his 2022 reelection by nearly 10 percentage points.
- "Cornyn's general electability argument is a tired, pathetic ploy," Maddux said.
State of play: SLF plans to release a memo on Wednesday outlining poll findings that Cornyn has pulled even with Paxton at 39%.
- GOP polling in August had shown Cornyn trailing by 8%.
- SLF attributes Cornyn's gains to a multimillion dollar pro-Cornyn ad blitz.
The bottom line: SLF is asking for "increased investment" in the pro-Cornyn effort, noting that Cornyn "continues to trail among the hardest-to-reach demographics."
- "The takeaway is straightforward: continued investment in Senator Cornyn through the fall will help sustain momentum, propel Cornyn to victory, and save the Republican Party vast resources in Texas next November," the memo says.
