Illinois Republicans face fundraising crisis after 2026 midterm losses
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GOP gubernatorial candidate Darren Bailey speaks at the Illinois State Fair in August. Photo: Justin Kaufmann/Axios
Illinois Republicans are licking their wounds after getting drubbed in the midterms, a defeat many GOP donors apparently saw coming long before Election Day.
Why it matters: The party that once dominated Illinois politics is struggling not only to win elections but also to attract the wealthy donors who once bankrolled its campaigns.
Case in point: Conservative megadonor Richard Uihlein, who poured more than $50 million into Republican Darren Bailey's 2022 campaign and an allied political action committee, contributed just $6,900 directly to Bailey this time around.
By the numbers: Bailey entered the final month of his unsuccessful campaign against Gov. JB Pritzker with about $432,000 in the bank, compared with Pritzker's $44.4 million.
- That's not a typo. That's a nearly $44 million difference.
- Bailey raised about $1.2 million in the third quarter, while Pritzker spent nearly $24 million during the same period.
The big picture: Longtime Republican pollster Rod McCulloch says the party's traditional donors have grown weary of pouring millions into losing campaigns.
- "The donor class of the Republican Party decided some time ago that Illinois was a lost cause," McCulloch said on the "Crisis Cast" podcast.
- He pointed to major Republican investments in Richard Irvin's unsuccessful 2022 gubernatorial primary campaign and Paul Vallas' losing 2023 Chicago mayoral bid as examples of donors getting burned.
- McCulloch said some of those same donors continue to spend heavily in other states while largely sitting out Illinois races.
Zoom in: McCulloch attended a Republican gathering in Dallas, where Bailey and running mate Aaron Del Mar sought to connect with potential financial backers.
- McCulloch said national donors appeared just as skeptical about investing in Illinois as local contributors.
- "They really have to start from scratch," he said.
Flashback: Before President Trump's first term, Republicans held the Illinois governor's office and a U.S. Senate seat. Both flipped to Democrats during his first term and have remained in Democratic hands since.
- Republicans have also lost ground in Chicago's collar counties. The party has struggled to translate Trump's political movement into statewide victories.
What they're saying: Del Mar, who serves as Cook County Republican Party chair, acknowledges the party needs to rebuild its fundraising operation but says wealthy donors also bear some responsibility.
- "You can't build a competitive statewide organization if the people with the resources to help only show up when victory looks certain," Del Mar tells Axios.
- He says Republicans need to rebuild donor relationships, invest in infrastructure and develop candidates earlier rather than starting over every election cycle.
Reality check: Illinois GOP chair Bob Grogan has acknowledged that Republicans relied too heavily on a handful of wealthy contributors, telling Capitol News Illinois in July that the party needed to build its organization rather than simply raise more money.
- "[W]e are not like one really smart consultant away from winning back the suburbs or getting out of the superminority," he said.
What's next: The party launched a recurring small-donor membership program earlier this year.
The bottom line: With the 2028 presidential election approaching, Republicans face questions about how to rebuild their brand, recruit candidates and convince donors that Illinois is worth the investment.
- "You can't win elections you're unwilling to invest in," Del Mar says.