Chicago's early midterm primary voting jumps
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Early midterm primary voting is rising exponentially among Chicagoans with each election, according to Chicago Board of Elections data.
Why it matters: The numbers suggest that mail-in ballot habits that started during COVID are sticking around here. This comes at a time when President Trump is threatening to eliminate mail-in ballots altogether.
- It also indicates higher local in-person turnout during President Trump's terms vs Joe Biden's.
Zoom out: Across the country, Democrats are turning out in high numbers for special elections and midterm primaries in a trend that is worrying Republicans.
Between the lines: Chicago Board of Elections spokesperson Max Bever offered Axios four possible drivers of the early voting spike:
- "Concerns related to [election day] safety at polling places" this year.
- Efforts to return mail-in ballots on time in the wake of new postmark rules.
- An earlier opening of the downtown voting site.
- Officials sending out mail-in ballots earlier than they did in 2022 and 2018.
Reality check: Despite the huge jump in overall early voting at this point, Bever warns it might not translate to a jump in overall turnout, which was 23% in 2022 and 33% in 2018.
- "The last few election cycles have proved that people voting earlier in the process may not lead to a stronger turnout for Election Day, just people doing their civic duty a bit quicker in the calendar," he says.