Trump deportations could hurt Illinois businesses, raise prices
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President Trump's campaign to deport millions of noncitizens, including those with legal status, could take a serious toll on Illinois industries, including construction, hospitality and food.
Why it matters: In addition to hurting businesses, a worker shortage could further boost costs for goods and services amid rising inflation and a 40% increase in vegetable prices last month.
The big picture: Recent U.S. Census figures say foreign-born noncitizens make up 17% of the workforce in construction, agriculture and mining and 11% in the hospitality sector, with those percentages being even higher in Chicago.
Reality check: These self-reported figures could drastically underrepresent the actual percentage of foreign-born workers in these fields.
- About 40% of all crop workers lack legal status, per USDA estimates.
- One in five food and hospitality workers is foreign-born, according to an analysis combining Department of Labor and Census figures.
Zoom out: 21% of small business owners said labor quality was their most important problem, according to a July NFIB survey. That's up 5 points from June and the largest monthly increase since August 2022.
- The problem was particularly acute in construction, wholesale and transportation.
The latest: Last week, the Chicago-based American Business Immigration Coalition, the Illinois Restaurant Association, the James Beard Foundation and other hospitality groups launched an initiative called Seat at the Table, urging the White House to approve "work permits for long-term law-abiding immigrants in essential jobs."
What they're saying: "Voters across party lines are demanding action," ABIC CEO Rebecca Shi said in a statement, citing a recent ABIC poll showing that 83% of voters in battleground states support these work permits.
The other side: "There are 34 million able-bodied adults in our Medicaid program. There are plenty of workers in America," Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins said last month in response to the farm labor shortage.
- She doubled down this month, telling Fox Business, "We have way too many people that are taking government programs that are able to work."
State of play: The Trump administration has taken some small steps, including creating the Labor Department's new Office of Immigration Policy, meant to streamline some temporary worker visas.
Yes, but: Trump's efforts this summer to carve out exceptions for undocumented farm and hospitality workers have hit MAGA opposition and subsequent rollbacks.
- "MAGA is always on amnesty watch. It will not move forward, no matter what name anyone tries to call it. They all have to go home," right-wing podcaster Jack Posobiec told Axios' Tal Axelrod.
What they're saying: "This is not amnesty. It's not amnesty lite," a senior Trump administration official told Axios' Marc Caputo of the visa effort.
- "No one who is illegally here is being given a pathway to citizenship or residency."
The bottom line: Both undocumented workers and the industries relying on them are still largely in limbo.