Chicago's violent crime is declining, but Mayor Johnson isn't getting credit
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Memorial Day weekend is the unofficial start of summer in Chicago, which also makes it the unofficial start of summer violence.
Why it matters: The holiday weekend is used as a litmus test to gauge whether preventative programs and police practices are working to curb gun violence.
What they're saying: "Community safety is my No. 1 focus," Mayor Brandon Johnson tells Axios. "In order to create safe communities, you have to invest in people."
By the numbers: Johnson, who campaigned on solutions for Chicago's violence epidemic, is touting an unprecedented drop in Chicago homicides.
- There were only 20 in April, the smallest number since 1962.
- Homicides dropped more than 20% in the first quarter of 2025 compared with the same quarter in 2024.
Yes, but: Violent crime is down all over the country. One journalist is even suggesting that Chicago's data is incomplete.
Between the lines: Homicides and gun violence are synonymous with Chicago politics. As mayor, you either take credit or get blamed when numbers fluctuate.
Case in point: Mayor Lori Lightfoot saw huge pandemic-related spikes in gun violence in 2021, painting her as soft on crime, which contributed to her ouster after one term.
The intrigue: Johnson has been shouting from the rooftops about his accomplishments, but it hasn't registered with voters, who said the city's never-ending violence was their top issue during the 2023 mayoral race.
- His poll numbers are astonishingly low.
So why isn't he getting the credit? "As with all political issues, it's important to address residents' perception, even if it's not entirely matching reality," Democratic political analyst Marj Halperin tells Axios.
- "Stats can show crime is down, but if something happens on your block, neighbors will feel like crime is up."
Reality check: Johnson has admitted to poor communication in the first half of his term.
Zoom out: Johnson has lobbied for more investment in preventative programs during his cash-strapped tenure as mayor. He created the Mayor's Office of Community Safety while bringing stakeholders together to author the People's Plan for Community Safety, which focuses on treating the root causes of violence. The mayor tells Axios he believes the drop in homicides is in part because of that plan.
- "From the very beginning, I brought in our police leadership to dig in deeper about our strategy to build safer communities," the mayor said. "Policing plays a part, but it's policing, affordable housing, youth employment, and behavioral mental health services. So it's the full force of government."
The bottom line: Chicago's gun violence epidemic has engulfed past administrations and crippled political careers. Johnson is hoping his efforts will do just the opposite.
- "We have more work to do," Johnson says. "One homicide is one too many."