Senate race could set off seismic shift in Illinois politics
Add Axios as your preferred source to
see more of our stories on Google.
Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi walks down the House steps in March. Photo: Bill Clark/CQ-Roll Call via Getty Images
House Democrats Raja Krishnamoorthi and Robin Kelly have already announced their intentions to run for Senate next year to replace outgoing Sen. Dick Durbin, and they could be joined by their colleagues Rep. Lauren Underwood and Republican Rep. Darin LaHood.
Why it matters: The four lawmakers would not run for reelection for their current jobs, and their seats combined with Rep. Jan Schakowsky's open seat mean six federally elected seats in Illinois could be open in 2026, the most in modern Illinois history.
The intrigue: The suburban districts represented by Krishnamoorthi and Underwood have voted Republican before.
- In 2020, Underwood narrowly defeated challenger Jim Oberweis, who had called for a recount.
Yes, but: The districts were redrawn in 2021 by the Democrat-controlled General Assembly.
- With the redrawn districts, Democrats have the upper hand, holding 14 of the 17 congressional seats.
State of play: Democrats are confident new blood could hold those seats in 2026, but history has shown that redistricted maps turn more purple as populations and demographics shift.
- This also holds for LaHood's 16th district, which includes parts of Peoria and Rockford, two bigger cities that have voted Democrat.
- Maps are usually redistricted based on census counts taken at the beginning of the decade.
Between the lines: Gov. JB Pritzker and his state Democratic party are supporting Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton in the primary, giving her a leg up over the congressional Democrats.
Reality check: Krishnamoorthi may not need that support, since he's amassed over $20 million in fundraising. He's also spending time making inroads with Democrats downstate.
- Underwood has become a rising star in the national party, speaking at the DNC last summer. She went viral for pressing Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem at a recent congressional hearing.
- Kelly is no slouch either. She has strong ties to Capitol Hill and is the only candidate who represents a large swath of Chicago voters. She has clashed with Pritzker in the past, who bounced her from chairing the state party in 2022.
The bottom line: The race to replace Durbin will bring a heated primary election to Illinois, while reshaping the state's current congressional delegation.