Illinois GOP sees hope in collar counties
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Vice President Harris and state Democrats won Illinois on Tuesday night, but vote totals show Republicans are gaining traction in the collar counties.
Why it matters: Illinois has been under one-party rule since 2018, with Democratic control of all statewide offices and the General Assembly.
Zoom out: A quick drill down shows cracks in the state Democrat's foundation.
- Harris won the majority of votes in the collar counties, but Democrat vote totals are way down from the past presidential elections, shrinking by almost three percentage points in some western counties.
- President-elect Trump pulled 45% of the statewide vote, up almost 8 percentage points from 2016.
The big picture: GOP support didn't just grow in the suburbs, this year the party saw gains over their 2020 numbers in every ward of Chicago except one, an Axios analysis shows.
- And nationally, too. All but two states — Washington and Utah — went more heavily for Trump on Tuesday than in 2020.
By the numbers: Only 95% of the state vote has been reported as of Thursday, so these numbers could change, but here's a look at how Harris compared to previous presidential election cycles.
- Hillary Clinton secured 74.8% of the Cook County vote in 2016, while Harris got 69%.
- Winnebago County (Rockford) went 47.2% for Clinton. This year, it went 49.4% for Trump.
- DuPage County Democrats gave Joe Biden 58% of the vote in 2020, but Harris only received 55.5% this year.
- Will County gave Biden 53.3% of the vote in 2020 compared to Harris' 49.7% this year.
- The only collar county that has consistently voted for Democrats since 2012 has been Lake County.
Flashback: The collar counties had historically been majority Republican, but since President Obama's two elections in 2008 and 2012, the counties have shifted to supporting Democrats.
What they're saying: "If Democrats want to continue a far-left agenda, then they are going to have problems," national political strategist Lance Trover tells Axios.
- Trover worked on Gov. Bruce Rauner's and Sen. Mark Kirk's campaigns in the 2010s.
- "In Illinois, it will take the right candidate on our side and a unified party, which we've seen in the last decade so we know it's possible."
The intrigue: Democrats will likely hold onto some of the federal and statewide seats for the immediate future, thanks to state leaders redistricting both maps in their favor.
Yes, but: Those maps were redrawn in 2021. Expect some of these races to be closer in the next elections.
- "These voter figures reveal a reality that Democrats are well aware of," Cook County Republican Party chairman Sean Morrison said in a statement.
- "Illinois deserves fair representation that accurately reflects the voice of the people, not lines drawn to preserve one-party dominance."
The bottom line: Even though Democrats won Illinois, state Republicans are seeing signs of optimism.