Chicago's unpredictable weather forecasts
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Illustration: Brendan Lynch/Axios
We all know weather is unpredictable.
The big picture: In Chicago, we count on our weather forecasts to alert us when the weather gets nasty, and sometimes dangerous.
Yes, but: Even though these forecasts are literally lifesavers, there are times they are plain wrong.
- Hint: It's always the computer's fault.
Case in point: Chicago forecasts called for thunderstorms and severe weather during last weekend's Lollapalooza.
- There were storms, but much lighter than predicted.
- Still, the predictions changed the course of what people wore to the festival and caused early cancellations of outdoor events across town.
Zoom in: A recent Washington Post project mapped just how accurate the nation's weather forecasts are, from city to city.
Methodology: The Post used recent data released by the National Weather Service to assess how many days into the future the Weather Service's forecast was accurate.
The verdict: In Chicago, the forecast is accurate only two days out.
- The study also concludes that cooler months are easier to predict than warmer months.
Reality check: Compared to other regions, the Midwest is pretty lousy.
- The Southwest and parts of California are accurate 5-6 days out.
- Florida's forecasts are spot on a full week out!
The bottom line: That five-day forecast you are glued to on your phone may not be the weather bible you were hoping it was.
Go deeper: Check out the entire study here.