Chicago has more independent alders under Mayor Johnson, survey shows

Why it matters: This marks a sea change in City Council behavior and helps explain some current strife, including a recent tie vote to censure the floor leader that had to be decided by the mayor.

State of play: A recent UIC study suggests the City Council's new independence streak started under Mayor Lori Lightfoot, when only about half of Chicago's 50 alders voted with her 90% of the time.

• By contrast, Mayors Rahm Emanuel and both Daleys ruled over City Councils where a strong majority — often 40 — voted with them more than 90% of the time, according to the study.

The latest: Fewer than 40% of the alders say they're likely to vote with Johnson on legislation, per Axios' survey.

• The mayor's office didn't respond to requests for comment on the survey results.

By the numbers: When asked to identify their political leanings on a spectrum, the largest share — 19 alders — say they consider themselves moderate, followed by:

• 12 progressive
• 8 very progressive
• 4 moderate progressive

Meanwhile, just three alders consider themselves conservative: Ald. Anthony Beale (9th) responded as moderate conservative, Ald. Nicholas Sposato (38th) as very conservative, and Ald. Anthony Napolitano (41st) in the middle.

Of note: Three alders didn't answer the question about political leaning.

• Ald. James Gardiner (45th) was the only alderperson not to participate in the survey.

What they're saying: Ald. Jeanette Taylor (20th), who identifies as very progressive, recently criticized Johnson and her progressive bloc, saying they need to be better organized.

• "Shame on us. We look like damn fools," she said on a recent "The Ben Joravsky Show" podcast. "You all wonder why the city is in chaos — because the City Council is in chaos."

Yes, but: UIC professor emeritus and former 44th Ward Ald. Dick Simpson points out that, even with the recent turmoil, Johnson's policies thus far "are carrying the vote with no less than 30-to-20 majorities."

• "The coalitions have changed a little depending on the issues, but the only close vote was the one about censuring his floor leader."

The intrigue: Simpson notes that "aldermen are now introducing much more of their own legislation."

• "Under Richard J. Daley, you had to get permission from the boss to introduce any legislation that was going to pass."

Survey answers

Question: "Stipulating that every issue requires individual consideration, how likely do you think you may be to vote for legislation/nominations supported by Mayor Brandon Johnson?"

Of note: Alders' answers are sorted by ward and include their self-identified political leaning (progressive, moderate, conservative).

• Alders noted with * did not respond to the question about political leaning.

Alders who say they vote "case by case" on legislation

• 2nd Brian Hopkins (Mod.)
• 3rd Pat Dowell (Mod.)
• 4th Lamont Robinson (Prog.)
• 6th William Hall *
• 7th Greg Mitchell (Mod.)
• 9th Anthony Beale (Mod./Cons.)
• 10th Peter Chico (Mod.)
• 11th Nicole Lee (Mod.)
• 13th Marty Quinn (Mod.)
• 14th Jeylu Gutierrez (Prog.)
• 15th Raymond Lopez (Mod.)
• 16th Stephanie Coleman (Mod.)
• 17th David Moore (Mod.)
• 18th Derrick Curtis (Mod.)
• 19th Matthew O'Shea (Mod.)
• 23rd Silvana Tabares (Mod.)
• 24th Monique Scott (Mod.)
• 28th Jason Ervin *
• 29th Chris Taliaferro (Prog.)
• 31st Felix Cardona (Prog.)
• 32rd Scott Waguespack (Prog.) — Yes, but: Waguespack responded that he'd "likely" vote with Johnson on nominees
• 34th William Conway *
• 36th Gilbert Villegas Moderate (Prog.)
• 38th Nicholas Sposato (Very cons.) — Yes, but: "Very likely" on nominees
• 39th Samantha Nugent (Mod.)
• 41st Anthony Napolitano (Cons.)
• 42nd Brendan Reilly (Mod.)
• 43rd Timmy Knudsen (Prog.)
• 46th Angela Clay (Mod./Prog.)
• 47th Matt Martin (Prog.)
• 50th Debra Silverstein (Mod.)

Alders "likely" to vote with Johnson

• 5th Desmon Yancy (Mod./Prog.)
• 8th Michelle Harris (Mod.)
• 20th Jeanette Taylor (Very prog.)
• 21st Ronnie Mosley (Prog.)
• 22nd Michael Rodriguez (Very prog.)
• 25th Byron Sigcho Lopez (Very prog.)
• 27th Walter Burnett Jr. (Mod.)
• 30th Ruth Cruz (Prog.)
• 37th Emma Mitts (Mod.)
• 40th Andre Vasquez (Very prog.)
• 44th Bennett Lawson (Mod./Prog.)
• 48th Leni Manaa-Hoppenworth (Mod./Prog.)

Alders "very likely" to vote with the mayor

• 1st Daniel LaSpata (Very prog.)
• 12th Julia Ramirez (Prog.)
• 26th Jessie Fuentes (Very prog.)
• 33rd Rossana Rodriguez-Sanchez (Very prog.)
• 35th Carlos Ramirez-Rosa (Very prog.)
• 49th Maria Hadden (Prog.)