Sizing up Mayor Lightfoot's re-election chances

Now that it's been a week (only one week?) since CPS and the CTU agreed on safety measures to resume classes, we turn our attention to the political implications of the lockout for Mayor Lori Lightfoot.

Why it matters: The mayoral election is just over a year away, in February 2023.

The big question: We recently asked readers if the school situation made them more or less likely to vote for Lightfoot in the 2023 election.

• This is not scientific: Our poll was only for subscribers, and readers who responded may not be eligible to vote.

144 people responded to our poll. The results:

• 79.9% said less likely.
• 20.1% said more likely.

What they're saying: Axios reader Dan H: "I think she handled the issue with the CTU just fine, but her handling of issues like crime, policing, and the way in which she endorsed many unscientifically based protocols early in the pandemic makes it hard to vote for her again."

Big picture: It's never too early to start thinking about the Chicago mayoral election. After all, it's the best game in town.

👍 Who's in:

• Lightfoot: She won 73% of the vote in the 2019 runoff election and is running for reelection. But recent polls show the mayor's approval rating dropping to under 50%.
• John Catanzara: The FOP President has a chilly relationship with Lightfoot and announced his candidacy after being forced to retire as a police officer.

🤔 Dipping toes:

• Arne Duncan: The former Secretary of Education and CPS CEO now works with violence prevention but recently hinted at the possibility of running.
• Paul Vallas: The former CPS chief is very critical of Lightfoot on issues like violence, schools and budget. He was recently suspended from Facebook for critical posts about the CTU.
• Ja'Mal Green: The activist has butted heads with Lightfoot during her term, including getting arrested protesting outside city hall in September.

👎 Who's out: Cook County Board president Toni Preckwinkle has ruled out running again.