Population share of young children drops in metro Atlanta
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Young children's share of the population in Atlanta fell 2.5 percentage points over the past two decades, U.S. Census Bureau data shows.
Why it matters: Kids' population trends can reflect cities' ability to attract, retain and support families, but larger nationwide factors like birth and death rates and immigration are also at play.
- Those trends may also translate to a drop in future student enrollment in public schools, which in Georgia rely on state funding that's calculated, in part, based on how many students are showing up to class.
- When fewer students enroll, state funding decreases. This causes districts to cover the budgetary shortfall by raising property taxes, cutting staff and other expenses, and closing schools.
By the numbers: Among the 50 biggest metros, Salt Lake City (-3.2 percentage points), San Jose (-3pp) and Los Angeles (-2.8pp) had the biggest dips in young children's share of their overall population between 2005 and 2024.
- Phoenix (-2.8pp) and Denver (-2.6pp) also had sizable drops.
- That's compared with -1.6pp among the U.S. broadly.
- The Census Bureau defines young children as those under 5.
Zoom in: Declining enrollment has already forced Atlanta Public Schools and Fulton County Schools to adopt school closure plans, despite opposition from parents and community stakeholders.
- 150 schools across APS and Clayton, Cobb, DeKalb, Fulton and Gwinett counties experienced at least a 20% drop in enrollment over the last decade, according to the AJC.
- Georgia Department of Education data shows enrollment dropped by around 30,000 students from October 2024 to October of this year.
Context: Enrollment declines in public schools accelerated during the COVID pandemic, while homeschooling gained ground.
State of play: Data released in 2023 by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention shows Georgia's birthrate fell nearly 29% between 2007 and 2022.
Zoom out: The U.S. birth rate hit a record low in 2024, while life expectancy is approaching 80 following a pandemic-era dip.
- Those data points suggest that children will make up less of the overall population over time — fewer kids, more older folks.
- Yet the country grew around 1% between 2023 and 2024 — breakneck speed, as such things go — driven primarily by immigrants (including children, complicating the births-versus-deaths picture).
Between the lines: Falling birth rates are fueling concerns about economic growth and societal change in some corners, particularly among "pro-natalist" conservatives.
Flashback: In 2015, urbanist Richard Florida found that "kids are far more prevalent in metros where immigrants and Latinos make up larger shares of the population."
What we're watching: The Trump administration's efforts to clamp down on and dissuade illegal immigration may affect kids' population shares in ways not yet well understood.