Poll: Kemp up big on Abrams, Warnock-Walker tied

Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp has a commanding and expanding lead over Democratic rival Stacey Abrams with less than 50 days remaining until the widely anticipated 2022 elections, per the latest Atlanta Journal-Constitution/University of Georgia poll shared with Axios.

• Meanwhile, U.S. Sen. Raphael Warnock (D-Ga.) is in a statistical dead heat with Republican challenger Herschel Walker.

Why it matters: The poll in this pivotal swing state offers a modest counterpoint to reports of Democratic gains in recent months. The Warnock-Walker match, which could be key to Senate control, was one of the only reasons for Democrats' optimism in the AJC poll.

• Kemp's lead on Abrams was 50% to 42%, up from five points in the AJC's July poll.

By the numbers: The survey (Sept. 5-16, margin of error of +/- 3.3 percentage points) showed double-digit leads for Republican nominees for lieutenant governor, attorney general and secretary of state.

• It also revealed a 37% approval rating for President Biden.

What we're watching: More signs of split-ticket voting. Nearly 1 in 10 Warnock's supporters said they back Kemp.

• In a Senate race that features two Black men who have very different takes on racism, 77% of likely Black voters favor Warnock. That's down from 85% two months ago.
• Abrams maintained about 80% support among Black voters in the governor's contest.

The intrigue: About 20% of independent voters remain undecided in each marquee race.

Disclosure: The AJC and Axios are both owned by Cox Enterprises, but Axios did not participate in the administration of the poll.