Kemp edges Abrams, Warnock tied in latest Georgia poll

Sen. Raphael Warnock (D-Ga.) appears to be in a statistical tie with Republican nominee Herschel Walker, while Republican Gov. Brian Kemp holds a slight lead over Democratic rival Stacey Abrams.

• That's according to an Atlanta Journal-Constitution/University of Georgia poll shared with Axios.

Why it matters: This is the newspaper's first poll since the swing state's May primary, conducted four months away from its widely-anticipated 2022 elections.

By the numbers: Warnock has a three-point lead over Walker but the results remain within the poll's 3.3% margin of error. Meanwhile, Kemp holds a five-point lead over Abrams, with 48% to Abrams' 43%.

• In the senate contest, 8% were undecided; 7% were unsure in the governor's race.

The big picture: The results track close to the averages of polling compiled so far by FiveThirtyEight, which show Warnock barely up 1% and Kemp up nearly 6%.

• They indicate a November possibility of split-ticket voting, which Georgia already saw play out during the 2021 Senate runoffs.

Of note: No candidates in the AJC poll captured the more than 50% required to avoid a runoff in Georgia. Both marquee races have third-party candidates.

Zoom in: While Kemp and Abrams polled evenly with independent voters, Warnock held an 11-point lead with the independents who were questioned.

• The results showed Abrams with 80% among Black voters in Georgia and Warnock with about 85%. Kemp pulled in 10% of Black voters' support, to Walker's 9%.
• Both Democrats are also polling better with women voters. But Walker is trailing Kemp, with 36% of his supporters identifying as female. 41% of those supporting Kemp were women.