Kemp edges Abrams, Warnock tied in latest Georgia poll
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Sen. Raphael Warnock (D-Ga.) appears to be in a statistical tie with Republican nominee Herschel Walker, while Republican Gov. Brian Kemp holds a slight lead over Democratic rival Stacey Abrams.
- That's according to an Atlanta Journal-Constitution/University of Georgia poll shared with Axios.
Why it matters: This is the newspaper's first poll since the swing state's May primary, conducted four months away from its widely-anticipated 2022 elections.
By the numbers: Warnock has a three-point lead over Walker but the results remain within the poll's 3.3% margin of error. Meanwhile, Kemp holds a five-point lead over Abrams, with 48% to Abrams' 43%.
- In the senate contest, 8% were undecided; 7% were unsure in the governor's race.
The big picture: The results track close to the averages of polling compiled so far by FiveThirtyEight, which show Warnock barely up 1% and Kemp up nearly 6%.
- They indicate a November possibility of split-ticket voting, which Georgia already saw play out during the 2021 Senate runoffs.
Of note: No candidates in the AJC poll captured the more than 50% required to avoid a runoff in Georgia. Both marquee races have third-party candidates.
Zoom in: While Kemp and Abrams polled evenly with independent voters, Warnock held an 11-point lead with the independents who were questioned.
- The results showed Abrams with 80% among Black voters in Georgia and Warnock with about 85%. Kemp pulled in 10% of Black voters' support, to Walker's 9%.
- Both Democrats are also polling better with women voters. But Walker is trailing Kemp, with 36% of his supporters identifying as female. 41% of those supporting Kemp were women.